TC Bertha

[CourierPR]

Bertha still appears to be headed generally west on the floater.

[CajunMama]

She is still stacking herself apparantly, and yes aric I think the punter is going to miss.

we are all going to die!!! lol im just sitting back a watching everyone go back and forth.. its quite funny

Better check your posts a few pages back before you talk about others going back and forth.

i think we have a hurricane///

BERTHA STRENGTHENING...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE

[senorpepr]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc%5Frealtime/products/4KMSRBDC/2008AL02_4KMSRBDC_200807070015.jpg

00:15 - further north.

Please note the time of the pic if you want to dispute it.

Question, the yellow circle in this image, is that predicted position or some analysis of the position of the LLC?

Archived images here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL022008

I might and probably am wrong, but I think it's the 34/50 kt wind radii. Don't take my word on it though.

While I don't know what the rings are for sure, I'm confident they're not wind radii.

The 34kt radius is 75mi, 30mi, 0mi, and 75mi. The 50kt radius is 30mi, 0mi, 0mi, and 30mi.

[Mecklenburg]

bertha does have the chance to become the first major hurricane of 2008 if it manage to dodge the vertical shear within 48 hours... it eerily resembles to hurricane bertha of 1996, same time of the year, same path

[Aric Dunn]

She is still stacking herself apparantly, and yes aric I think the punter is going to miss.

we are all going to die!!! lol im just sitting back a watching everyone go back and forth.. its quite funny

Better check your posts a few pages back before you talk about others going back and forth.

i think we have a hurricane///

BERTHA STRENGTHENING...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE

that was a mistake.. i forgot to quote the above statement.. it was from the advisory my fault..

[RL3AO]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc%5Frealtime/products/4KMSRBDC/2008AL02_4KMSRBDC_200807070015.jpg

00:15 - further north.

Please note the time of the pic if you want to dispute it.

Question, the yellow circle in this image, is that predicted position or some analysis of the position of the LLC?

Archived images here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL022008

I might and probably am wrong, but I think it's the 34/50 kt wind radii. Don't take my word on it though.

While I don't know what the rings are for sure, I'm confident they're not wind radii.

The 34kt radius is 75mi, 30mi, 0mi, and 75mi. The 50kt radius is 30mi, 0mi, 0mi, and 30mi.

I'm sure its just a reference to a certain size. Much like the rings on radar. Thats my guess at least. From my meaurement, the outter circle is about 4.2 degrees accross (diameter). Not sure if that translate to a special number or not.

[senorpepr]

I'm sure its just a reference to a certain size. Much like the rings on radar. Thats my guess at least. From my meaurement, the outter circle is about 4.2 degrees accross (diameter). Not sure if that translate to a special number or not.

That's my guess as well.

[wjs3]

any promet's are quikscat's known to be off occasionally (possibly if it is here?) in a manner that may not pick up winds in SW or SE side of circulation?

(edit) thank you wxman57

...and quickscat has this nasty little thing called ambiguities. Essentially, there is a set of equations the raw quickscat data gets run through. These equations can result in multiple solutions, or ambiguities. Take a look at ambiiguities on the MOST page:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

those flags pointing in 4 directions give you an idea of how non-cut and dried quickscat can be.

[Mecklenburg]

I noticed that in the recent years, the cape verde area has been pretty inactive since 2004... thanks mostly to SAL, wind shear and EL NINO, could this be a sign that the 2008 cape verde season is back with a vengeance?

[Steve]

>>There is a eye in the 85h! A eye don't form with out a well organized LLC, so that is just the way it is. As for the quickscat it is having problems because of the fast westward movement of the cyclone. This is going to be my last post on the topic doe's this have a LLC or not, because it doe's end of discussion.

WT*?

[gotoman38]

She's looking good in this shot - I'm seeing a nice outflow

Shear leaving on the SE side now?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

>>There is a eye in the 85h! A eye don't form with out a well organized LLC, so that is just the way it is. As for the quickscat it is having problems because of the fast westward movement of the cyclone. This is going to be my last post on the topic doe's this have a LLC or not, because it doe's end of discussion.

WT*?

I'm sorry for this. Wxman57 stated it just fine.

[Mecklenburg]

bertha is a rather small-sized storm isn't she?

[HURAKAN]

I think Bertha got angry after its poor showing in 2002!!!

[HURAKAN]

Very difficult to see anything conclusive.

[txwatcher91]

Based on quikscat, this is just a trough or tropical wave

[Aric Dunn]

center,, watch the loop.




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Bertha clearly appears to be turning more to the west after a previous WNW movement.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Aric Dunn]

Bertha clearly appears to be turning more to the west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

agreed the confusion earlier.. was the convection wrapping around giving the illusion of a more northward motion

[boca]

Between W and WNW heading.If a ridge is building north of Florida westward why are the models predicting a NW turn?