TC Bertha

[MississippiHurricane]

First Hurricane of the season.............wow. Lets just hope this stays a fish

I win..........first hurricane post of the year

Now.......where is my cookie?

[KWT]

Hurricane Bertha, first hurricane of the 2008 season and to be honest I'm not surprised this is at 65kts, the eye has emerged now on IR and so you can't be surprised its reached hurricane status. Impressive hurricane for this far east!

[Chacor]

Whoa.

[Chacor]

A few interesting discussion tidbits...

IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO 00Z...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES OCCURRED ON ROUGHLY AN HOURLY BASIS...AND ALMOST MADE IT
SEEM LIKE WE WERE RECEIVING RADAR FIXES. THOSE IMAGES REVEALED A
WELL-DEFINED AND VERTICALLY-ALIGNED EYE FEATURE...AND MORE RECENTLY
AN IMAGE FROM AMSU TAKEN AT 0517Z ALSO DEPICTED AN EYE. THE
MICROWAVE EYE DIAMETER APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 15-20 N MI. GOES
INFRARED IMAGERY HAS INTERMITTENTLY EXHIBITED HINTS OF AN
EYE...ESPECIALLY AROUND 06Z WHEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 65 KT.

...
WHILE A HURRICANE DOES NOT FORM EVERY YEAR IN JULY IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...IT HAS CERTAINLY HAPPENED BEFORE...INCLUDING IN 1996 WHEN
ANOTHER HURRICANE BERTHA FORMED...COINCIDENTALLY ALSO ON JULY 7.

...
THE
NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS EDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT TOWARD
THE CONSENSUS AND IS A TAD SLOWER AT THE END. GIVEN THE WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS AND LACK OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT IS STILL NOT
GUARANTEED THAT BERTHA WILL RECURVE.

...
THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 80 KT
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SHEAR...AND DUE TO COOLER
WATERS AS BERTHA PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

[KWT]

That track for Bermuda is pretty scaryy thats almost a bullseye hit, this is going to have to be watche dvery closely as this may well get too close to for comfort for Bermuda. It may well weaken quite a bit by the time it reaches Bermuda but who knows what will happen.

Also Bertha 96 and this one has a very interesting link about the hurricane upgrade.

[Chacor]

"It is still not guaranteed that Bertha will recurve" is just as scary, I think.

[KWT]

Yep Chacor there is still plenty to watch with Bertha, I think given its not far from 20N recurveature is looking probably a 80-90% chance, of course there is a difference between a recurve and a fish, this is looking like a possible real threat to Bermuda though thats still a good 5 days away.

Recon is going to be very interesting as it should come in when its at its peaks.

[JonathanBelles]

Bertha is blinking! lol

[HURAKAN]

Visible images will be here shortly.

[KWT]

Yep Hurakan should be long before we get a much better look at how Bertha is doing at the present moment.

[HURAKAN]

In 1996, Hurricane Bertha formed on July 7 but at 1800.

[KWT]

Became a hurricane a fair way west of this has formed though which makes Bertha 08 more impressive in that reagrds, I just wonder if it will get upto the same sort of strength as Bertha 1996...

[Thunder44]

"It is still not guaranteed that Bertha will recurve" is just as scary, I think.

No guarantee. But I think it's most likely to that do that. Now that it's stronger, it should respond more to the weakness in the ridge, that would be caused by the trough coming off the east coast late this week. Then the ridge building over the Southern US and the progressive trough pattern over the Northern US, will probably keep it away from the US East Coast.

[HURAKAN]

Very lonely in this world.

[KWT]

Yeah I can't really see it being a threat to the USa mainland but for Bermuda thats clearly going to be a different matter unless this system shifts track again but its running out of time for any major shifts it seems.

amazing Hurakan so I take it this is the most easterly forming hurricane in July.

[Mecklenburg]

for a category 1 hurricane, bertha already has an impressive looking eye

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it can keep the northern outflow channel, there is some chance this may become a cat2 hurricane. We will have to see. Also the eye is coming out nicely....Hell it would not suprize me by tonight it might become that!

[Chacor]

for a category 1 hurricane, bertha already has an impressive looking eye

Not too bad, but I wouldn't call it "impressive looking". It's still cloudy (eye temp is around -30C).

[Mecklenburg]

i never thought it could strengthen into a hurricane today... could it possibly become a cat. 2?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html