TC Bertha

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -20.4C Cloud Region Temp : -58.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[KWT]

Its not an impressive eye in terms of what we sometimes see in strong hurricanes but its not bad in terms of being a borderline hurricane, looks like a small eye and a small structure overall.

[HURAKAN]

Good morning Bertha!!

[Mecklenburg]

the NHC even stated that it was such a coincidence that the hurricane formed on the same day a similar-named hurricane bertha formed in july 7 of 1996

[Chacor]

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -20.4C Cloud Region Temp : -58.1C

Scene Type : EYE

What's the active time on that reading, btw?

Still, -20C, slightly warmer than what I'm seeing on that IR a few posts up. Still cloudy though as HURAKAN's visible shows.

[KWT]

Good image Hurakan, you can clearly see where the eye is though its not amazingly well defined as of yet, still its got quite a while to try and clear that eye out more.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes its weaker then Fabian, but it is centered very close to where it was when it was within the area. Also the nhc forecast bertha to follow his track...I also feel that this is likely to become a cat2 if the shear holds of.

[KWT]

Yeah the track of Fabian is pretty close to what Bertha's may end up like but we will have to wait and see, Bertha is a touch north of where Fabian was at this time in its journey.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/02L.txt
Here is the info it came off of.

[Chacor]

As of the same time as the IR it looks like, so I probably underestimated the eye temp.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

I got your attention with the previous forecasts, now back to reality, Bertha expected to turn before reaching US.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better now.

[vacanechaser]

nice eye hole... wow, what a difference in 24 hrs...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Nimbus]

The eye should make for good wobble watching. Wonder what latitude the steering trough will stall to her west?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 101500 UTC
Lat : 19:13:59 N Lon : 50:22:09 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 986.9mb/ 67.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 5.1 5.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -0.9C Cloud Region Temp : -54.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 071017
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
617 AM AST MON JUL 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...UPGRADED HURRICANE BERTHA...BECOMES THE FIRST
HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON. AS OF 5 AM AST...THE CENTER
OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES...EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 17 MPH. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AS BERTHA REMAINS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ABOUT 500 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

EVEN THOUGH...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...DETACH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE SPIRAL BANDS OF
BERTHA...MOVING WESTWARD JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WILL ARRIVE TO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ONCE THIS MOISTURE GETS HERE...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE NW
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO WILL GET THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. BEGINNING FRIDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[Gustywind]

AT 5 AM AST...BERTHA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2008

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 070856
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST MON JUL 7 2008

ATLANTIC SEASON. THE CENTER OF BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES...EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 17
MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LONG TERM TRACK
ERRORS...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS IT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

[Normandy]

Looking at it early this morning....two things come to mind....Bertha seems to be stronger than 65 kt...and I am starting to like Bertha's chances to possibly become a major. I didn't think it would be this strong so fast.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would not suprize me if it was near 70 knots.