TC Bertha

WmE · #2241 Postby **WmE** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:07 am

I doubt that she's deepening rapidly moving so fast and with 26-27°C SST. But looking on the improving outflow and the improving appearance she's strenghtening.

Mecklenburg · #2242 Postby **Mecklenburg** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:07 am

i won't be surprised if it becomes category 2 in the next advisory

Chacor · #2243 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:09 am

Mecklenburg wrote:i won't be surprised if it becomes category 2 in the next advisory

I would. That's going a bit overboard. Cat 2 = 85 kt hurricane. Few storms gain 20 kts in 6 hours, especially given the conditions it's in.

wzrgirl1 · #2244 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:09 am

maybe not quite a cat. 2....that would be a big jump in 6 hours......but you never know

Cryomaniac · #2245 Postby **Cryomaniac** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:17 am

WmE wrote:Indeed it is. The last time we've had a hurricane in July was 2005.

Is that a sensible thing to say :eek:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2246 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:19 am

WmE wrote:I doubt that she's deepening rapidly moving so fast and with 26-27°C SST. But looking on the improving outflow and the improving appearance she's strenghtening.

This area developed Isabel into a cat5 and Fabian into a cat4. Also Frances, Georges and many others.

#2247 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:20 am

About the speed, remember how Andrew intensified while flying across the Western Atlantic.

Both have in common their size. Big help in intensification.

Extremeweatherguy · #2248 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:20 am

Berth looks great this morning!

WmE · #2249 Postby **WmE** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:21 am

Cryomaniac wrote:
WmE wrote:Indeed it is. The last time we've had a hurricane in July was 2005.

Is that a sensible thing to say

Well I should have said that in 2005 we've had a Cat 4 and a Cat 5 in July and that this won't happen again in the short term. That was just crazy. :wink:

#2250 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:22 am

Seeing 20/20 this morning!!!

Chacor · #2251 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:22 am

Well, whatever it is, we'll find out in about a half hour when the 12z ATCF entry comes out.

WmE · #2252 Postby **WmE** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:24 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
WmE wrote:I doubt that she's deepening rapidly moving so fast and with 26-27°C SST. But looking on the improving outflow and the improving appearance she's strenghtening.

This area developed Isabel into a cat5 and Fabian into a cat4. Also Frances, Georges and many others.

True, but none of these storms bombed out in that area in July. However I have to admit that it is looking like it's deepening pretty fast.

#2253 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:26 am

I think finally today we should have a much better idea of where Big B is going. According to models and NHC she should begin turning more today...

Extremeweatherguy · #2254 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:27 am

Based on the Satellite presentation, I find it hard to believe that this is still a 75mph Category 1 hurricane. It should be interesting to see what the NHC decides to do with the intensity in their next update.

#2255 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:30 am

Mecklenburg wrote:is it quite rare to have a hurricane at this time of the season???

No not really. We here in NC have seen a few in July. Bertha is one of them in 1996. and bonnie too I think. Might be wrong on that one but I know there have been a few just here in NC.

Do any of you think she will slow down any? She just may do that. Everyone. Remember TIMING is the key to all.

Mecklenburg · #2256 Postby **Mecklenburg** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:35 am

storms in NC wrote:
Mecklenburg wrote:is it quite rare to have a hurricane at this time of the season???

No not really. We here in NC have seen a few in July. Bertha is one of them in 1996. and bonnie too I think. Might be wrong on that one but I know there have been a few just here in NC.

Do any of you think she will slow down any? She just may do that. Everyone. Remember TIMING is the key to all.

I, actually, am from North Carolina also

Chacor · #2257 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:36 am

Bertha is moving pretty quickly right now.

Consider this NRL image:

The image is centred on Bertha's 06z ATCF position. Bertha's centre in that image is already a distance west.

WmE · #2258 Postby **WmE** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:37 am

storms in NC wrote:
Mecklenburg wrote:is it quite rare to have a hurricane at this time of the season???

No not really. We here in NC have seen a few in July. Bertha is one of them in 1996. and bonnie too I think. Might be wrong on that one but I know there have been a few just here in NC.

Do any of you think she will slow down any? She just may do that. Everyone. Remember TIMING is the key to all.

Bonnie was in August. Since 1996 there were July hurricanes in 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005 and 2008. (I disregard Alex in 2004 becuase it reached hurricane intensity in august) So I guess it's not that rare.

#2259 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:38 am

4.5 now.

1145 UTC 19.4N 50.7W T4.5/4.5 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

Intensity chart.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

#2260 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:41 am

80 kts,975 mbs

AL, 02, 2008070712, , BEST, 0, 194N, 507W, 80, 975, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1013, 200, 20, 0, 0

TC Bertha

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