Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
62w is the wall for GFDL.
WHXX04 KWBC 071130
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 7
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 19.0 49.5 285./14.9
6 19.6 50.7 294./12.8
12 20.2 51.6 305./11.0
18 20.9 52.4 310./10.2
24 21.4 53.5 298./11.2
30 22.0 54.5 300./10.9
36 22.4 55.6 287./11.2
42 22.6 56.4 290./ 7.6
48 23.0 57.3 292./ 9.1
54 23.5 58.2 297./ 9.8
60 24.1 59.0 309./ 9.7
66 24.9 59.6 321./ 9.0
72 25.7 60.3 324./10.3
78 26.6 60.8 330./10.2
84 27.6 61.2 337./10.2
90 28.5 61.5 342./ 9.7
96 29.3 61.8 339./ 8.5
102 30.1 62.1 341./ 7.7
108 30.7 62.2 346./ 6.7
114 31.2 62.2 8./ 4.7
120 31.5 62.1 4./ 3.1
126 31.8 62.0 31./ 3.0
WHXX04 KWBC 071130
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 7
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 19.0 49.5 285./14.9
6 19.6 50.7 294./12.8
12 20.2 51.6 305./11.0
18 20.9 52.4 310./10.2
24 21.4 53.5 298./11.2
30 22.0 54.5 300./10.9
36 22.4 55.6 287./11.2
42 22.6 56.4 290./ 7.6
48 23.0 57.3 292./ 9.1
54 23.5 58.2 297./ 9.8
60 24.1 59.0 309./ 9.7
66 24.9 59.6 321./ 9.0
72 25.7 60.3 324./10.3
78 26.6 60.8 330./10.2
84 27.6 61.2 337./10.2
90 28.5 61.5 342./ 9.7
96 29.3 61.8 339./ 8.5
102 30.1 62.1 341./ 7.7
108 30.7 62.2 346./ 6.7
114 31.2 62.2 8./ 4.7
120 31.5 62.1 4./ 3.1
126 31.8 62.0 31./ 3.0
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- hurricanefloyd5
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Is it possible that bertha or the models starting to show a possible loop????
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
It's a waste of time to consider every possibililty, so, I'm just glad it's doing what it's doing...
The many here who were constantly saying how they believed Bertha would head towards the U.S. need to think about why they think that way, even though the models consistenly were putting out data that said just the opposite - while the models varied back and forth, the smoothed data shows that they were consistently showing that Bertha would turn northward...
The many here who were constantly saying how they believed Bertha would head towards the U.S. need to think about why they think that way, even though the models consistenly were putting out data that said just the opposite - while the models varied back and forth, the smoothed data shows that they were consistently showing that Bertha would turn northward...
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Frank2 wrote:It's a waste of time to consider every possibililty, so, I'm just glad it's doing what it's doing...
The many here who were constantly saying how they believed Bertha would head towards the U.S. need to think about why they think that way, even though the models consistenly were putting out data that said just the opposite - while the models varied back and forth, the smoothed data shows that they were consistently showing that Bertha would turn northward...
There have been many times where the models were wrong in the long and a storm DID hit the US when it was scheduled to be an open Atlantic storm, can't blaim those people for going with a "gut instinct"
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
From long experience I've found that it has less to do with gut instinct and more to do with just wanting to see some action...
I once felt that way - 2 days before Andrew took the roof off my house - I now know better...
I once felt that way - 2 days before Andrew took the roof off my house - I now know better...
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- Extremeweatherguy
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The chances of this storm making a hit on the U.S. are EXTREMELY slim. However, the same cannot be said for the scenario of this storm slowing or stalling in and around the Bermuda triangle region. If you look at the latest model runs, they all seem to show Bertha either stalling, looping, or slowing greatly toward the end of their timeframes. If something like this does indeed happen, then it may mean we could be dealing with Bertha for a lot longer than we originally thought, and while a hit to a place other than Bermuda would still be very unlikely, it would definitely not be impossible. The bottom line here is that we still need to watch this until it is certain that it is speeding off to sea (meaning we actually see the storm race past the latitude of Bermuda and show no signs of slowing down).
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Frank2 wrote:It's a waste of time to consider every possibililty, so, I'm just glad it's doing what it's doing...
The many here who were constantly saying how they believed Bertha would head towards the U.S. need to think about why they think that way, even though the models consistenly were putting out data that said just the opposite - while the models varied back and forth, the smoothed data shows that they were consistently showing that Bertha would turn northward...
The possibility of Bertha getting close to the US was raised by some, because it didn't look like it would get much stronger. The model runs that showed Bertha remaining much weaker, also showed it coming closer to the US. Anyway, with either solution, it probably wouldn't have been a significant storm for the US East Coast. I think that was played up too much.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
80kts,285 at 13kts.
WHXX01 KWBC 071240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC MON JUL 7 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080707 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080707 1200 080708 0000 080708 1200 080709 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 50.7W 20.2N 53.6W 20.8N 56.2W 21.4N 58.2W
BAMD 19.4N 50.7W 20.3N 52.7W 21.0N 54.2W 21.7N 55.7W
BAMM 19.4N 50.7W 20.2N 52.9W 20.8N 54.9W 21.4N 56.7W
LBAR 19.4N 50.7W 20.4N 52.8W 21.4N 54.9W 22.3N 56.7W
SHIP 80KTS 87KTS 87KTS 85KTS
DSHP 80KTS 87KTS 87KTS 85KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080709 1200 080710 1200 080711 1200 080712 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 60.3W 24.1N 63.9W 26.1N 66.2W 26.9N 67.7W
BAMD 22.4N 57.1W 24.5N 59.9W 26.8N 62.0W 27.9N 63.8W
BAMM 22.1N 58.5W 24.0N 61.8W 25.9N 64.1W 26.9N 66.0W
LBAR 23.2N 58.2W 25.8N 60.8W 27.5N 61.3W 28.3N 62.0W
SHIP 81KTS 70KTS 59KTS 57KTS
DSHP 81KTS 70KTS 59KTS 57KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.4N LONCUR = 50.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 18.8N LONM12 = 47.9W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 44.4W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 975MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 071240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC MON JUL 7 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080707 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080707 1200 080708 0000 080708 1200 080709 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 50.7W 20.2N 53.6W 20.8N 56.2W 21.4N 58.2W
BAMD 19.4N 50.7W 20.3N 52.7W 21.0N 54.2W 21.7N 55.7W
BAMM 19.4N 50.7W 20.2N 52.9W 20.8N 54.9W 21.4N 56.7W
LBAR 19.4N 50.7W 20.4N 52.8W 21.4N 54.9W 22.3N 56.7W
SHIP 80KTS 87KTS 87KTS 85KTS
DSHP 80KTS 87KTS 87KTS 85KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080709 1200 080710 1200 080711 1200 080712 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 60.3W 24.1N 63.9W 26.1N 66.2W 26.9N 67.7W
BAMD 22.4N 57.1W 24.5N 59.9W 26.8N 62.0W 27.9N 63.8W
BAMM 22.1N 58.5W 24.0N 61.8W 25.9N 64.1W 26.9N 66.0W
LBAR 23.2N 58.2W 25.8N 60.8W 27.5N 61.3W 28.3N 62.0W
SHIP 81KTS 70KTS 59KTS 57KTS
DSHP 81KTS 70KTS 59KTS 57KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.4N LONCUR = 50.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 18.8N LONM12 = 47.9W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 44.4W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 975MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM
$$
NNNN
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
The SHIP 12:00 UTC Forecast:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* BERTHA AL022008 07/07/08 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 87 87 87 85 81 77 70 64 59 58 57
V (KT) LAND 80 85 87 87 87 85 81 77 70 64 59 58 57
V (KT) LGE mod 80 87 91 90 89 85 81 77 73 69 65 63 62
SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 14 16 13 16 20 20 24 21 21 7 10
SHEAR DIR 233 251 242 262 286 245 267 230 238 230 252 258 348
SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.9
POT. INT. (KT) 123 126 126 128 129 129 130 132 136 138 133 127 120
ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 119 119 119 118 117 118 120 121 114 107 100
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -55.2 -55.0 -55.6 -55.5 -55.8 -55.2 -55.4
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 9 8
700-500 MB RH 43 46 46 44 43 43 44 46 48 47 48 47 47
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR 29 23 9 -3 0 -6 -30 -60 -69 -88 -102 -86 -67
200 MB DIV 38 22 0 -6 2 -2 7 6 4 -10 -6 -14 -3
LAND (KM) 1460 1382 1297 1191 1091 935 836 825 880 987 1153 1257 1224
LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.3 25.6 27.0 28.7 29.9 30.8
LONG(DEG W) 50.7 52.1 53.5 54.6 55.7 57.7 59.5 61.0 62.2 63.2 63.9 64.2 64.0
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 11 11 10 10 9 8 9 7 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 19 23 28 33 37 33 30 30 26 19 8 2 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. -24.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. 0.
PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 2. -2. -8. -14. -18. -20. -21.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 1. -3. -10. -16. -21. -22. -23.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/07/08 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/07/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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12z intensity models: two call for a 100-kt cat 3:

Refer to ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/nhc_techlist.dat for model names.
Code: Select all
INIT 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
AVNI 80 79 80 81 82 79 77 74 71 70 71
GFDI 80 85 88 90 92 96 100 100 95 91 82
GFNI 80 87 91 93 91 91 94 91 90 97 100
HWFI 80 82 77 71 67 69 77 81 88 93 92
IVCN 80 87 86 83 80 80 81 79 77 78 76
LGEM 80 91 89 85 81 77 73 69 65 63 62
NGPI 80 80 75 72 74 76 76 76 78 84 89
SHIP 80 87 87 85 81 77 70 64 59 58 57

Refer to ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/nhc_techlist.dat for model names.
Last edited by Chacor on Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:02 am, edited 2 times in total.
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- storms in NC
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Frank2 wrote:From long experience I've found that it has less to do with gut instinct and more to do with just wanting to see some action...
I once felt that way - 2 days before Andrew took the roof off my house - I now know better...
Frank2 I don't want to see a hurricane any more. But as dry as it is here it would take a nice TD to help. I think the farmers at this time would take any thing they could get now. Now I don't think it will come this way I still say Bermuda either a hit or just off the coast of there. I have seen many hurricanes here in NC I even lost my home to Floyd to the flood. But I have to say Karita took the cake. She was bad bad. Was there in upper La for 3 weeks. Do I think the track will change? Yes the hurricane will slow down and then timing will be of the obeisant
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
I do recall alot of the models in 2004 didn't know where the storms were going they were back and forth between the Atlantic and Florida...you never know because the weather changes, highs and lows can stick around or can move out quickly which helps guide the storm. It just boils down to you don't know for sure what will happen until it hits land or swims out to sea for good. Nothing is impossible.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Yes, it is dry in NC, but, flooding is even worse, since that causes the type of losses that you had during Floyd...
The GFS shows the subtropical high moving eastward to allow enough of a gap to pick up Bertha:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html
The GFS shows the subtropical high moving eastward to allow enough of a gap to pick up Bertha:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
There is an old saying=Never say never in the tropics.
That is why tropical weather is exciting,challenging etc because you never know what may happen to a system in terms of direction or intensity.Right now the best example,Bertha was not forecast to be a cat 2 hurricane today and that may occur later today.
That is why tropical weather is exciting,challenging etc because you never know what may happen to a system in terms of direction or intensity.Right now the best example,Bertha was not forecast to be a cat 2 hurricane today and that may occur later today.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
True, but, intensity forecasting (of any type) is still the weak link in meteorology...
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
This is an open forum for discussion on storms. People who post here are interested in storms. They may not be professional mets, but they are at the very least enthusiasts. Open dialogue is going to take place, especially as the season heats up. People will speculate on tracks, strength, atmospheric conditions, etc. And some of those posts may be lacking in what the pros would consider 'scientific merit'. But the people making the posts are genuine and sincere in being able to share their thoughts, ask some questions, and more likely than not, learn something. Hopefully that can take place without a 'that's ridiculous' response from others on the board everytime.
Open forum means open forum. There is a section here for pros to post their analysis. Ranges of ideas, possibilities, etc. are not unique to this board. Go on to any board dealing with politics or sports....views and beliefs cover the spectrum. Those boards exist even when one candidate running for office may have a lead over another or one team has a stronger record than another. The same should be true here, even when the models and the discussion deviate. Otherwise, this is not a forum. It is a regurgiated version of the NHC website with maps and data.
Open forum means open forum. There is a section here for pros to post their analysis. Ranges of ideas, possibilities, etc. are not unique to this board. Go on to any board dealing with politics or sports....views and beliefs cover the spectrum. Those boards exist even when one candidate running for office may have a lead over another or one team has a stronger record than another. The same should be true here, even when the models and the discussion deviate. Otherwise, this is not a forum. It is a regurgiated version of the NHC website with maps and data.
Frank2 wrote:It's a waste of time to consider every possibililty, so, I'm just glad it's doing what it's doing...
The many here who were constantly saying how they believed Bertha would head towards the U.S. need to think about why they think that way, even though the models consistenly were putting out data that said just the opposite - while the models varied back and forth, the smoothed data shows that they were consistently showing that Bertha would turn northward...
Last edited by jinftl on Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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