TC Bertha

[SkyDragon]

Bertha already beat Katrina!!!! Katrina had somewhere around 112 pages!!

[cycloneye]

Bertha already beat Katrina!!!! Katrina had somewhere around 112 pages!!

Exaxcty 111.

[cycloneye]

I just checked and I have to make a correction.Ivans thread is the record for most pages with 352 followed by the Wilma thread with 282.But later today the Charley thread will be passed as it had 124 pages.

[NDG]

Bertha's intensification during the night and this morning goes to tell many of us that were calling for Bertha to get ripped apart by shear once it got to 50W how quickly conditions change, just because there is shear in an area today does not mean that it will be there tomorrow or the day after, shear tendency maps are better to look at.

That strong flow that would be shearing Bertha if the system were farther North is instead helping to evacuate the upper levels, and is helping Bertha instead.

You are correct, and I believe I had noticed a couple of days ago from the gfs & euro UL forecasted conditions that if she stayed near 20N she was going to encounter less hostile conditions.

[SkyDragon]

Look At THis, this is from Ivan's thread!

[Meso]

Convection deepening just to the north of the eye, a few moments ago there were no reds visible

[Thunder44]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 19:35:59 N Lon : 50:54:40 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 971.4mb/ 90.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.0 5.4 5.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -5.0C Cloud Region Temp : -55.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Other ADT numbers are between 5.3 and 5.5

[MiamiensisWx]

The center has briefly moved (wobbled?) back to the west in the last few frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[WmE]

It's approaching Cat2 strength IMO.

[Frank2]

A special observation, advisory or warning is issued when the observed weather changes significantly, so, perhaps this might require a special advisory, but, unsure if it meets the criteria - I'd say no, since the next package is due in one hour, anyway...

Back to the models...

[hurricanefloyd5]

Nope I think it's still on track. West wobble yes maybe but still on the right on track.

[ncweatherwizard]

Looking at microwave and visible imagery, it looks like the inner eyewall is giving way to secondary banding. Might be seeing some more intensification this afternoon.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The center has briefly moved (wobbled?) back to the west in the last few frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Looks like she is getting a slight shear cut to her north...Still looks WnW over all though..

[NDG]

It seems that the movement of Bertha to still be around 20mph, at least this morning by looking at the vis sat loop.

[deltadog03]

I still see a 285 movement or so....I really wanna see if we do hit more towards a 300 movement today or not.

[cycloneye]

No Recon for tommorow:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 071300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 07 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


This was Sundays TCPOD:

NOUS42 KNHC 061715 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 06 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-036

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK. (AMENDED)
A. POSSIBLE AIR FORCE FLIGHT ON TS BERTHA,
8/18Z, 20N 57W.
3. BEGIN 12 HRLY FIXES 9/12Z IF NECESSARY.

[MiamiensisWx]

Nope I think it's still on track. West wobble yes maybe but still on the right track.

Agreed - I was merely noting the brief west movement, though it was an insignificant wobble.

In regards to the intensity, Bertha is situated in an upper air environment that is very conducive for further intensification. Upper level diffluence and divergence is excellent. The main limiting factor against major hurricane status (<96 kt) is the mid level dry air surrounding the TC. Although it may aid further convection, the stronger updrafts will contribute to stronger downdrafts that may bring the dry air to the boundary layer. Therefore, along with a few other things, I remain skeptical that Bertha will attain major hurricane status. However, it will definitely intensify to a solid Category 2 hurricane.

...and why is tomorrow's reconnaissance mission rescinded?

[Sanibel]

Bertha could be enjoying a tropical airmass pulled up along with it. Pretty unsheared and thick for a first week of July system in this area. I wonder how many storms did this well this early in this area?

I wish people would stop trying to pull this west. Bertha has been pulling up since yesterday. A storm forming so close to the Cape Verde islands is almost sure to pull up due to US troughs.

The SAL layer isn't a given thing from year to year and this year it could be weaker. Like Frank2 said, each year is different and we could be seeing an ocean-tracker year opposite last year's Carribean low-tracker.

[boca]

I'm playing catch up ball but I just took a snippet out of the 5am discussion and they seem to be alittle unsure if Bertha will turn due to steering currents at that time.

GIVEN THE WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS AND LACK OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT IS STILL NOT
GUARANTEED THAT BERTHA WILL RECURVE.

[MiamiensisWx]

In my opinion, tomorrow's planned mission should have not been cancelled. Valuable data is needed.

This is disappointing, especially for Bermuda residents, many of whom require detailed information.