TC Bertha

[cycloneye]

Since now is no threat to any land for the next 72 to 96 hours,I think that they held until it is seen to pose a threat to Bermuda to then do 12 hour fixes.

[Chacor]

It never was cancelled, Miami — it was never scheduled in the first place. It was only a "possible" fix.

[storms in NC]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 070641
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008

.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HPC PROGS SHOW COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THURSDAY FROM THE
WEST AND STALLING OUT OVER THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. OVERALL CAN EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
WX...GENERALLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S/UPPER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

If this cold front stall like they said it will I may give Bertha a opening. But still stay out to sea and go between the us and Bermuda
What are your thoughts?

[MiamiensisWx]

It never was cancelled, Miami — it was never scheduled in the first place. It was only a "possible" fix.

I know; my wording was poor. Are there any possible reasons on why they decided to avoid that possible flight?

[storms in NC]

In my opinion, tomorrow's planned mission should have not been cancelled. Valuable data is needed.

This is disappointing, especially for Bermuda residents, many of whom require detailed information.

With the price of gas or this case jet fuel. I think you will see less flying till they really need to. JIMO

[Stormavoider]

In my opinion, tomorrow's planned mission should have not been cancelled. Valuable data is needed.

This is disappointing, especially for Bermuda residents, many of whom require detailed information.

With the price of gas or this case jet fuel. I think you will see less flying till they really need to. JIMO

With the eye clearly visible, there is no need to locate a center for model input.

[MiamiensisWx]

CATEGORY 2: FILM AT 11?!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Based on organization trends and objective analysis of data, I believe an upgrade to Category 2 intensity is very possible for the 11 a.m. EDT package.

[Sanibel]

If this cold front stall like they said it will I may give Bertha a opening. But still stay out to sea and go between the us and Bermuda
What are your thoughts?

My thoughts are that is the trough that they expect to recurve Bertha and that's why they made the recurve track forecast.

Bertha must have a really favorable upper environment to be doing that well in that place.

[pojo]

It never was cancelled, Miami — it was never scheduled in the first place. It was only a "possible" fix.

I know; my wording was poor. Are there any possible reasons on why they decided to avoid that possible flight?

1) availability of crews
2) availability of divert bases
3) distance from land

this is only a guess... not down at base to find out exactly why.

[hurricanefloyd5]

CATEGORY 2: FILM AT 11?!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Based on organization trends and objective analysis of data, I believe an upgrade to Category 2 intensity is very possible for the 11 a.m. EDT package.

I would have to agreed. This could change the track more eastward right????

[boca]

Maybe because of strength it might go east of Bermuda which would put them on the weaker side if and if only it heads that way.

[Blown Away]

Looks like Bertha will be N of the next NHC forecast point. I think the recurve is going to happen sooner.

[boca]

Looks like Bertha will be N of the next NHC forecast point. I think the recurve is going to happen sooner.

I agree with you since its now a stronger deeper storm.

[NDG]

IMO, Bertha for the short term can not gain much latitude, the weakness to her north will be a thing of the past and will be kept on WNW track due to that strong ridge over Bermuda. The UL shortwave trough situated over the Carolinas is what is supposed to start eroding the ridge over Bermuda along with a much stronger trough in a few days, lets see how much erosion does happen and where will Bertha be by the time she starts feeling the weakness over the western Atlantic.

[wxman57]

Cat 2 looks reasonable, though the 12Z model runs had 80 kts.Could become a Cat 3 in 12 hours or so. Appears to be only a threat to Bermuda - for now. Have to watch for a significant slow-down/stall near Bermuda, though. That wouldn't be good.

[MiamiensisWx]

The northward movement is likely another wobble. It's still following the TPC forecast points, in my view. Watch for a turn back to the dominant WNW movement.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

It's a classical case of a "stair stepping" TC, with the wobbles exerting little or no influence on the outcome.

[Sanibel]

With a more N track the cool Atlantic will be on its right, possibly limiting intensity.

[MiamiensisWx]

With a more N track the cool Atlantic will be on its right, possibly limiting intensity.

It's not moving N...

The northward movement is likely another wobble. It's still following the TPC forecast points, in my view. Watch for a turn back to the dominant WNW movement.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

It's a classical case of a "stair stepping" TC, with the wobbles exerting little or no influence on the outcome.

[boca]

Cat 2 looks reasonable, though the 12Z model runs had 80 kts.Could become a Cat 3 in 12 hours or so. Appears to be only a threat to Bermuda - for now. Have to watch for a significant slow-down/stall near Bermuda, though. That wouldn't be good.

If Bertha were to stall where would it go after the stall by Bermuda?

[Ivanhater]

Cat 2 looks reasonable, though the 12Z model runs had 80 kts.Could become a Cat 3 in 12 hours or so. Appears to be only a threat to Bermuda - for now. Have to watch for a significant slow-down/stall near Bermuda, though. That wouldn't be good.

Yeah, hopefully that trough is deep enough to take her on out, if not..she will hang out for awhile and be a headache...