TC Bertha

[Steve]

>>Bertha already beat Katrina!!!! Katrina had somewhere around 112 pages!!

The best non-professional posters on this site, easily come from coastal Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and NW Florida. Due to the major effect that system had on many of us from Dauphin Island to Grand Isle (and to a lesser degree over in Baldwin, Santa Rosa and Escambia Counties), the posting was limited. This Bertha thread has plenty of "chatter" but not that many great posts outside of the sats and what have you.



Steve

[storms in NC]

Looks like Bertha will be N of the next NHC forecast point. I think the recurve is going to happen sooner.

I agree with you since its now a stronger deeper storm.

I just seen that but took it as a wobble has that is what it is going to do go back and forth. From north to WNW or even West at times. She is looking for the less resistant.

[Chacor]

SSD 1145z: T4.5/4.5
TAFB 1145z: T5.0/5.0

[SkyDragon]

>>Bertha already beat Katrina!!!! Katrina had somewhere around 112 pages!!

The best non-professional posters on this site, easily come from coastal Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and NW Florida. Due to the major effect that system had on many of us from Dauphin Island to Grand Isle (and to a lesser degree over in Baldwin, Santa Rosa and Escambia Counties), the posting was limited. This Bertha thread has plenty of "chatter" but not that many great posts outside of the sats and what have you.




Steve

Who said that Alabama,Mississippi,Louisana, and Florida had the best posters?

[hurricanefloyd5]

if this has gotten stronger then shouldn't be moving more into a nwward movement??

[MiamiensisWx]

I was going to post a detailed analysis, but since most do not pay attention to them, I'll lurk and post pertinent, fact based short posts that contribute to the discussion.

Did short detailed posts (such as my timely and informative comment regarding the movement) suddenly become a crime?

Miami

[boca]

>>Bertha already beat Katrina!!!! Katrina had somewhere around 112 pages!!

The best non-professional posters on this site, easily come from coastal Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and NW Florida. Due to the major effect that system had on many of us from Dauphin Island to Grand Isle (and to a lesser degree over in Baldwin, Santa Rosa and Escambia Counties), the posting was limited. This Bertha thread has plenty of "chatter" but not that many great posts outside of the sats and what have you.




Steve

Who said that Alabama,Mississippi,Louisana, and Florida had the best posters?

Hey Steve were all good posters.

[MiamiensisWx]

Hey Steve were all good posters.

Agreed. I've seen excellent contributors from all regions of the CONUS, the Caribbean islands, and even across the globe!

A thread geared toward informative meteorological discussion should not become a popularity or perjorative contest.

Miami

[Steve]

>>Who said that Alabama, Mississippi, Louisana, and Florida had the best posters?

I did. Of course that was just a salvo to the NC, TX and SFL posters out there in good fun. There are tons of great posters. Those in Katrina's way mostly just got the hell out and stopped posting for a while until the "check in" thread. It was a joke, thus the smiley. But make no mistake, posters like Steve, MCG, Ivanhater, etc. are always worth the read.

Steve

[boca]

I was going to post a detailed analysis, but since most do not pay attention to them, I'll lurk and post pertinent, fact based short posts that contribute to the discussion.

Did short detailed posts (such as my timely and informative comment regarding the movement) suddenly become a crime?

Miami

Daniel your analysis are very informative please post away because I read them.

[Thunder44]

Cat 2 looks reasonable, though the 12Z model runs had 80 kts.Could become a Cat 3 in 12 hours or so. Appears to be only a threat to Bermuda - for now. Have to watch for a significant slow-down/stall near Bermuda, though. That wouldn't be good.

That wouldn't be good for who? Do you think that after it stalls, it will be able to come back much farther west? I didn't think so. There's another cold front come to the east by Sunday and it looks even stronger than the one on Thursday. The trough pattern over the Northern US looks too progressive.

[stormchazer]

Cat 2 looks reasonable, though the 12Z model runs had 80 kts.Could become a Cat 3 in 12 hours or so. Appears to be only a threat to Bermuda - for now. Have to watch for a significant slow-down/stall near Bermuda, though. That wouldn't be good.

That wouldn't be good for who? Do you think that after it stalls, it will be able to come back much farther west? I didn't think so. There's another cold front come to the east by Sunday and it looks even stronger than the one on Thursday. The trough pattern over the Northern US looks too progressive.

I think he is saying it would not be good for Bermuda.

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 071432
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A DISTINCT EYE NOW APPARENT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE
VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THERE ARE NO
APPARENT ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WHICH WOULD INHIBIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TODAY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR
BERTHA TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BEYOND 36 HOURS AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS FORECAST THE MOST
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH BERTHA ESSENTIALLY RUNNING INTO THE
TROUGH. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL
MODELS...WHICH INCLUDE ATMOSPHERIC INFORMATION FROM THE GFS...SHOW
CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING. MEANWHILE...THE UKMET...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS SHOWS A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DELAY WEAKENING
UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE HIGHER SHEAR SCENARIO INDICATED BY
THE GFS BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN BERTHA AS FAST AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HURRICANE'S HEADING DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED... 285/13. HOWEVER...BERTHA IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS EVOLUTION...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS ON WHAT LONGITUDE BERTHA WILL TURN NORTH.
WHILE THE DEGREE OF THE TURN HAS IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS REGARDING
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO BERMUDA...IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF
BERTHA WILL ACTUALLY THREATEN THAT ISLAND. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE TRACK
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 19.6N 51.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.3N 53.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.2N 55.5W 90 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.1N 57.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.2N 59.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 62.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 28.5N 63.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 31.0N 63.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

80 kt at 11 a.m. EDT

[CrazyC83]

My guess right now is 85 kt, 969mb.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Cat 2 looks reasonable, though the 12Z model runs had 80 kts.Could become a Cat 3 in 12 hours or so. Appears to be only a threat to Bermuda - for now. Have to watch for a significant slow-down/stall near Bermuda, though. That wouldn't be good.

That wouldn't be good for who? Do you think that after it stalls, it will be able to come back much farther west? I didn't think so. There's another cold front come to the east by Sunday and it looks even stronger than the one on Thursday. The trough pattern over the Northern US looks too progressive.

then you think if that could front is that strong like you say it is then I think it would "PULL" the storm towards the front.. I mean look... oh wait my bad I think I am backwards well then I agree then it could push it away from the CONUS

[storms in NC]

Cat 2 looks reasonable, though the 12Z model runs had 80 kts.Could become a Cat 3 in 12 hours or so. Appears to be only a threat to Bermuda - for now. Have to watch for a significant slow-down/stall near Bermuda, though. That wouldn't be good.

That wouldn't be good for who? Do you think that after it stalls, it will be able to come back much farther west? I didn't think so. There's another cold front come to the east by Sunday and it looks even stronger than the one on Thursday. The trough pattern over the Northern US looks too progressive.

I think he is saying it would not be good for Bermuda.

I have always been told that a storm would go to a low not to a high. So it could turn and go into the low. Am I right or wrong?

[WmE]

Is that pressure of 994 mbar a typo??

[CrazyC83]

That 994mb in the advisory has to be a mistake. That is unrealistically high for its intensity.

[Category 5]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 071433
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST MON JUL 07 2008

...BERTHA STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...COULD REACH
CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY LATER TODAY...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 775 MILES...
1250 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.6 N...51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Chacor]

At 09z it was 987, so it's probably a typo.