TC Bertha

[Sanibel]

I think the posters that are observing every "west" wobble are going to watch, with the rest of us, Bertha recurve right up the expected track. That should keep cooler July Atlantic waters to its right.

Plus shear basically blew Chris away.

No comparison to Chris. Bertha has a huge head-start.

[Category 5]

it wasn't the TUTT that got Chris... it was more destructive mid level shear... the same shear that caused Ernesto to collapse before Haitian landfall

Ah ok, thanks for clarifying.

[Mecklenburg]

what's a TUTT?

[Chacor]

what's a TUTT?

A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough.

Bertha's looking good.

[soonertwister]

I think the posters that are observing every "west" wobble are going to watch, with the rest of us, Bertha recurve right up the expected track. That should keep cooler July Atlantic waters to its right.

Sanibel, please see my post near the end of page 117. Clearly Bertha is tracking consistently west of forecast. I think that us much as two-thirds of yesterdays latitude gain was due entirely to the reformation of the LLC underneath the strongest convection associated with the MLC.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive Bertha.

[djones65]

Soonertwister...
You are comparing the NHC's forecast positions for 0600 UTC to the "advisory position of 0900 UTC." Therefore, the 0900 UTC position is three hours LATER than the 0600 UTC position, thus you see that Bertha appears to be farther west than the forecast when in actuality, they are pretty darn good! The 0600 UTC position today was 19.1N and 49.4W which is very near the predictions... The NHC seems to be doing very well on their forecasts thus far.

[Sanibel]

This storm continues to perform ahead of expectations. It is trying to form an inner donut core.

[djones65]

Again, soonertwister, it appears from what you posted at the end of page 117 that Bertha is tracking a little north of the NHC forecasts if anything...

[HURAKAN]

BERTHA JULY 7 1996 11:45 UTC



BERTHA JULY 7 2008 11:45 UTC

[WmE]

Is it undergoing an ERC or why did the eye get obscured?

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 3.96 Bertha 2 0.37 Arthur
Total: 4.32


Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlan ... ane_Season

[Mecklenburg]

Is it undergoing an ERC or why did the eye get obscured?

what do you mean? the eye didn't get obscured

[WmE]

Is it undergoing an ERC or why did the eye get obscured?

what do you mean? the eye didn't get obscured

Look at the IR. The eye cooled significantly.

ERC=eyewall replacement cycle.

[Sanibel]

The eye just got much sharper under a slight haze. (Intensification)

[HURAKAN]

Nice!

[Category 5]

Is it undergoing an ERC or why did the eye get obscured?

what do you mean? the eye didn't get obscured

Look at the IR. The eye cooled significantly.

ERC=eyewall replacement cycle.

Wouldn't Microwave show a second eyewall?

[soonertwister]

Soonertwister...
You are comparing the NHC's forecast positions for 0600 UTC to the "advisory position of 0900 UTC." Therefore, the 0900 UTC position is three hours LATER than the 0600 UTC position, thus you see that Bertha appears to be farther west than the forecast when in actuality, they are pretty darn good! The 0600 UTC position today was 19.1N and 49.4W which is very near the predictions... The NHC seems to be doing very well on their forecasts thus far.

You are missing my point.

Forecast position 7/3 through 7/7:
20.0N 46.5W 07/0600Z 03/0900Z
19.0N 48.0W 07/0600Z 04/0900Z
19.0N 49.3W 07/0600Z 05/0900Z
18.7N 49.5W 07/0600Z 06/0900Z

Actual:
19.3N 50.2W 07/0900Z 07/0900Z

Bertha is:
-0.7N +3.7W from Thursday
+0.3N +1.5W from Friday
+0.3N +0.9W from Saturday
+0.6N +0.7W from Sunday

Bertha's center reformed under the MLC in the last 24 hours. Adjusting for that, the actual deviation over four days (plus 3 hours) is more like -1.1N +3.6W from forecast. How is that not clearly deviation to the west?

[curtadams]

Bertha's eye is being covered by high outflow being sheared over it. On RGB you can it's blue, ie high clouds with nothing underneath. The ADT strength estimates are going to drop significantly. I think the strong estimates are more likely true because the nice round donut indicates most of Bertha is flying underneath the shear and almost completely unaffected by it. If shear were affecting the eyewall the eye would be oval or otherwise distorted.

[WmE]

Yes, but I couldn't find a recent microwave. Anyways, it's probably just intensifying like Sanibel said.