SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[jasons2k]

Had a wonderful 4th out on the lake!!

Came home to a very dried-out lawn and had to set the sprinker out - at least in the one area where I have a busted sprinkler head - which is half of my front lawn......

Anyway, if you think it's bad here you should see Austin - all the unwatered grass was totally brown. The roadside medians were brown until almost Brenham (headed east). Then all of a sudden everything was green...

[Yankeegirl]

i bet the folks in deep south texas are happy, they look like they are getting a ton of rain!! they need to send it up here!! looks like tomorrow we have a 40% chance of rain, thats as good as its going to get though... I need some excitement....

[srainhoutx]

i bet the folks in deep south texas are happy, they look like they are getting a ton of rain!! they need to send it up here!! looks like tomorrow we have a 40% chance of rain, thats as good as its going to get though... I need some excitement....

Thought that I would post the BRO AFD from this afternoon for you Yankeegirl...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND MINOR FLOODING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A SLOW DECREASE IN RAINFALL AS THE WEEK WEARS ON...

.SYNOPSIS...THE "RAIN TRAIN" IS ON THE TRACK...ONLY THE TRACK IS
ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF THE EXPECTED LOCATION EARLIER
TODAY...GENERALLY AFFECTING WESTERN CAMERON...EXTREME EASTERN
HIDALGO...WESTERN WILLACY...AND WESTERN KENEDY COUNTY. RADAR
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO INDICATE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THREE HOUR
WINDOWS...AND FULLY EXPECT MORE THAN 6 INCHES FROM THIS BAND ALONE
IN SOME AREAS WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. MINOR BUT NOTABLE FLOODING
CONTINUES IN HARLINGEN...BROWNSVILLE...RAYMONDVILLE...AND OTHER
LOCATIONS AND ADVISORIES ARE HOLDING THE FORT FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IF THE NEXT BATCH
HOLDS TOGETHER.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DROUGHT BUSTER INDEED! RECORD BREAKER MAY BE THE
FINAL ANSWER IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHERE BY THE END OF THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT PARTS OF CAMERON TO HAVE EXCEEDED 10 INCHES SO
FAR...IN JULY ALONE! PRETTY BIG NUMBERS CONSIDERING THIS IS STILL
IN THE EARLY SUMMER "DRY" SEASON HERE. FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE CURRENT TRENDS BUT AS
EVENING APPROACHES THINGS SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THEY HAVE IN RECENT
DAYS...BACK TO AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THEN TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS ENDING ALTOGETHER ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

THAT SAID...ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDS TIGHT TO THE RIVER AS THE 500 MB SHEAR AXIS WHICH
HAS BEEN THE CULPRIT FOR TODAY`S RAIN TRAIN EDGES A BIT FARTHER
INTO MEXICO. STILL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN SUNSET
AND SUNRISE...AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY STAY DRY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...THE DIFFERENCE IN DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE DAY`S WEATHER. UNLIKE
TODAY...WHERE A SHARP 250 MB DEFORMATION AXIS IS LITERALLY SITTING
OVER THE VALLEY AND HAS MAXIMIZED THE LIFT THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE...ON TUESDAY...250 MB WIND SHIFT DECIDEDLY TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASE IN SPEED. WHILE THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIVERGENCE IN THE MORNING...THE DEEP LAYER FORCING IS SUBTLY
PUSHED WEST AND WEAKENED.

THAT`S NOT TO SAY WE`LL HAVE ISSUES...AS MORNING SOUNDINGS WILL
REMAIN JUICED AND ANY RISE IN TEMPERATURE TO TRIGGER VALUES (MID
80S OR SO) WHICH COULD ALLOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CELLULAR
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE DAY COULD EVOLVE SIMILAR TO A WEEK
AGO (JULY 1) WHERE IN CAMERON COUNTY OLMITO HAD NEARLY 3 INCHES
WHILE LOCATIONS JUST 10 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST HAD VIRTUALLY NO RAIN.

SO...DESPITE THE NUMEROUS WORDING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THE
EXPECTATION FOR LESS TRAINING AND MORE CELLULAR WILL KEEP THE
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE AT BAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAMMER IN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AS WELL
AS ON OUR WEBSITE IN TOP NEWS...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCAL
FLOODING WITH ANY STRONG CELL THAT DEVELOPS.

We may have some better chances tomorrow and Wednesday as an Upper Low off W Cuba moves WNW and enhances our chances for rain locally.

[Yankeegirl]

thank you Srain!! Well at least the farming community down there must be happy, and maybe some of the fruits and veggies from south texas wont get over priced... like everything else is.... and i do hope that we get some rain here... maybe tomorrow...

[Yankeegirl]

Oh never mind, looks like the NWS has lowered the rain chances tomorrow from 40% to 20%....poop...

[Johnny]

I was in Leakey, Texas from June 20th through the 28th. We stayed on a ranch that has the Frio River running through it. The river is WAY low! The landowner said they have only had 3" of rain at the ranch all year! It showed and it was very hot, dry and dusty while we were there. However, my family and I had one heck of a time playing in the crystal clear Frio River and Artifact hunting. Look at the collection we brought back. We found some really cool stuff from different arrowheads, spear points, drills, pre-forms, an old buffalo tooth etc etc.



Some more pictures from the trip...

[srainhoutx]

Great pics. Thanks for sharing.

[Yankeegirl]

well with the low chance of rain here today, guess what? its raining! its much better to the south of here...the thunder is very nice... it sounds so nice it makes me wanna take a nap!! ((yawns))

[jasons2k]

Johnny, thanks for the great pics!

[Johnny]

No problem Jason!

Now who got rain and who didn't get rain yesterday? With all of the popcorn convection around yesterday, I din't get one single drop at the house! Go figure. I think last yearI had only watered twice leading up to this point. This year, I've got the waterhoses out every single day! I sure hope I get a shower today. You know what would be really nice right now? A semi-fast moving tropical storm. I could really go for some tropical weather right about now.

[srainhoutx]

Just about a half inch here with three good showers and even a little thunder. But 1/2 mile away not a drop.

[Yankeegirl]

we havent gotten any thing here at all today.... no thunder no lightning no nuttin... oh well.... tomorrow??!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thunder and dark clouds, no rain, least not yet, at the Galleria.

Radar looks dry so far near FM 1960/Veterans Memorial area.

Edit to add: heavy shower at Galleria w/ occnl thunder at 1:42 pm CDT

[Johnny]

Yep, the radar is starting to light up pretty good right now but just light stuff in Montgomery County.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Yankeegirl]

we got some good rain and thunder today, it was so good i took a nap!!

[Johnny]

It looks like we are going to have one of the hottest weekends of the summer. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 100 degree readings across the area. Y'all find yourselves a good watering hole to jump into this weekend! I'll be filling deer feeders and clearing brush on my property in Madison County but will have PLENTY of water with me. Have a good weekend!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Scattered storms seen on visible satellite loop along decaying frontal boundary North of Houston metro


12Z WRF shows some showers make it into Houston Metro late afternoon.

RUC and WRF both show somewhat limited instability, due to a deep column of fairly warm air, and very light low level winds, so nothing too exciting. RUC shows PW around 2 inches, WRF around 2.2 inches, so maybe some decent rain.


Low shear and a semi-tropical profile may actually favor a brief funnel cloud or two near boundary intersections.



Note: I don't see, based on 12Z models, big severe potential, but NWS HGX AFD stresses possibility of pulse severe based on LCH 7 am sounding. That sounding shows long skinny CAPE, almost 3000 J/Kg.


Hmmmm, 12Z (hour zero) WRF forecast sounding for LCH shows 900 J/Kg CAPE, so perhaps I shouldn't completely trust WRF CAPE soundings.


OK, I guess I do see the potential for brief severe in HGX area.

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
955 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

.UPDATE...
12Z SOUNDINGS LOOK RATHER LOADED THIS MORNING AS LCH HAS PW`S
AROUND 2 INCHES...CAPE NEAR 3000 AND LI`S AROUND -7. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE AROUND 90 DEGREES. RADAR ALREADY SHOWS DEVELOPMENT ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER PW AIR THAT IS PROGGED TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TODAY. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...A WEAK BOUNDARY AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RATHER
BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ROBUST FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHOW A STRONG INVERTED V
SIGNATURE. HAVE ADDED SEVERE WORDING FOR AREAS NE OF A CLL TO HOU
TO GLS LINE. HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE 4 KM WRF WHICH SHOWS A
CONVECTIVE FLARE UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NW/CENTRAL
ZONES. STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS SO ALSO ADDED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES FROM MAX TEMPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN.

[jasons2k]

All day, I have been eagerly anticipating some decent rains for the house.

And, as luck would have it, that little isolated cell in eastern Montgomery County just spit out an outlfow boundry SW across my neighborhood. If this cuts-off the instability to the real storms going-up to the north, I just don't know what I'll think.

[Yankeegirl]

Nothing here yet, just alotta sun and some nice, white, puffy clouds... I would trade for some rain right about now....