TC Bertha

[cpdaman]

Any promets, have any guesses as to how long the storm may stall near bermuda, and with a decent amount of confidence?

[pojo]

It's an absolute travesty that there are no scheduled recon flights into this system. This is at least 90 kt right now.

Its not going to threaten land for several days if at all. With the high cost of fuel im sure they are being more selective as to what systems are investigated.

More than the high price of fuel is the distance involved to the nearest divert base in case of a mechanical problem, for a storm that doesn't pose an immediate threat to any land.

If they start flying Thursday that will still give more accurate info a day and a half or more before any possible strike on Bermuda.

thank you Ed. With a storm that is north of the islands, it is harder to find a close divert airport that WE have approval to land at.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So it looks to me that this more intense Bertha will recurve
earlier, but Bermuda has to watch closely, but the US should
be mostly safe- I know it is too early to tell, but again I am not
sure. This is just my amateur observation. The wunderground models
recurve Bertha before it reaches the US, but Bermuda needs to
watch it closely IMO.

[hurricanefloyd5]

It's moving more northwestward now and it's going way off course.

[brunota2003]

Just to point something out, Isabel crossed 20N further east than Bertha is getting ready to. Is that anything significant? Nah, just an interesting fact.

[arkestra]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 967.3mb/ 94.8kt

[cpdaman]

with bertha being a small storm i wonder just how favorable the conditions will be for her in two days or so and wether this won't weaken her more than forecast. (posted last nite how smaller storms seem to surpise especially to the upside rather quickly w/ winds) but the down side as well.

[Frank2]

Bertha now crossing 20N 51.5W - the heading appears to be about 300-310 or so:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[UpTheCreek]

Bertha now crossing 20N 51.5W - the heading appears to be about 300-310 or so:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I like to check off the tropfcstpts box to gauge it relative to their path.

[NDG]

She is taking advantage of the weakness to her north ahead of the ridge on top of Bermuda, but once she starts getting influence of the ridge she should go back to a more WNW track once again before moving closer to Bermuda in a few days. IMO.

[NDG]

Bertha now crossing 20N 51.5W - the heading appears to be about 300-310 or so:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Not crossing 20N yet, I still see her near 19.85N.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Bertha now crossing 20N 51.5W - the heading appears to be about 300-310 or so:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Not crossing 20N yet, I still see her near 19.85N.

LMAO..! she's a woman...always round up..

[Frank2]

We'll see - the GFS has continually (since late last week) shown the ridge moving east, with a modest trough in the between the US EC and east of Bermuda, so, Bertha might continue to move more to the NW and N, though at a slower forward speed...

[DESTRUCTION5]

We'll see - the GFS has continually (since late last week) shown the ridge moving east, with a modest trough in the between the US EC and east of Bermuda, so, Bertha might continue to move more to the NW and N, though at a slower forward speed...

Least its July and we have a Cane to track...That in itsself is a pleasure...

[Frank2]

Well, the northern eyewall is at 20N, anyway...

LOL

[senorpepr]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 967.3mb/ 94.8kt

FWIW, I just produced a Dvorak estimate myself. (Thank you NRL for the KML link!) The eye is still a little ragged on VIS, but the distance between the center and the edge of the CDO has slightly increased. I'd lean toward a T4.5+, which falls between SAB's and TAFB's estimates. In my opinion, I'd go with 80-85KT based on Dvorak.

[CrazyC83]

thank you Ed. With a storm that is north of the islands, it is harder to find a close divert airport that WE have approval to land at.

You don't have approval to land in Bermuda? Although that only helps once it is in the 25N-40N range.

[storms in NC]

Even tho I new it was going to the Bermuda or slide by there. I was so hoping I was wrong. This was our only chance to save the crops. It would take a miracle now to save the crops here in the east. Some place have got some rain but not what we need. Okay Back to our regular program.

Bertha does look good and seem to be gaining more too.

[littlevince]

By the way, was this an ERC early today ?

That's very interesting right there. Looks like a center relocation though I didn't think that could happen in this organized of a storm. Where did you get those images?

Hi, from here:
MIMIC-IR
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... npage.html

MIMIC-TC
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... npage.html

But it seems that this was an error processing of the images as this strange eye movement disappeared from the last updated loop.

Before:
http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/9859 ... r05oa3.gif (loop)

Now:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 2hr_05.gif

[cycloneye]

247
AXNT20 KNHC 071754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

HURRICANE BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 51.3W AT 07/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 670 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN EYE OF
ROUGHLY 10-20 NM IN DIAMETER...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF ITS
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
NOW SURROUNDS THE EYE BUT THE LARGEST AREA REMAINS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT WITH REMAINING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 49W-52W.
BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN UNDER FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.