corpus christi bound???

chadtm80 · #1 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 9:22 pm

KEEP YOUR EYES OPEN TEXANS!!!!

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 9:24 pm

Too early to call chad :wink:

This is one hard nut to crack!!! :roll:

Lindaloo · #3 Postby **Lindaloo** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 9:25 pm

Possibly... because I do not believe the trough will pick it up to make it turn north.

ColdFront77 · #4 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 9:26 pm

I don't see how the confidence level of a Corpus Christi, Texas area landfall being so high. The movement of tropical
cyclones are not etched in stone using forecast model guidance.

With that said, the confidence level for Tropical Storm Claudette should be even lower because of what "she"
has gone through thus far, including the slow down that is apparently taking place and/or expected to take place.

A slow down of a tropical cyclone with the current forecast models out will only change the forecast models more
so than if the conditions around the storm and the storm itself stayed at or about the same speed.

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 9:59 pm

Interesting how the GFDL now "looks good" since it takes the storm up to where the hurricane nuts are.

Remember the previous dozen runs of the GFDL dissipated the storm within 24-48hrs. I didn't see anyone saying he or she liked the GFDL best back then.

I know that many of you here would love to experience a hurricane. Hey, what weather nut wouldn't (myself included)? But we have to be very wary of "wishful forecasting" - turning a blind eye to the facts and picking that one model which brings the center closer to your location. So take a step back, look at the recon data, the WV satellite imagery, track history, and remember how wrong your favorite model has been over the past few days.

chadtm80 · #6 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:05 pm

Interesting how the GFDL now "looks good" since it takes the storm up to where the hurricane nuts are. Remember the previous dozen runs of the GFDL dissipated the storm within 24-48hrs. I didn't see anyone saying he or she liked the GFDL best back then.

I know that many of you here would love to experience a hurricane. Hey, what weather nut wouldn't (myself included)? But we have to be very wary of "wishful forecasting" - turning a blind eye to the facts and picking that one model which brings the center closer to your location. So take a step back, look at the recon data, the WV satellite imagery, track history, and remember how wrong your favorite model has been over the past few days.

umm wxman with all do respect where the heck did anyone in this thread call the gfdl there "favorite" model.... Or that it "looks good"? and secondly no in in this thread is even from texas.. so im a lil confused about your post..

southerngale · #7 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:07 pm

Who said they liked the GFDL better? Is it supposed to be more reliable than the others? Which one is more accurate?

Sorry for so many questions.

chadtm80 · #8 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:17 pm

Southerngale check out this thread here.. This will answer you questions

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ight=model

southerngale · #9 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:36 pm

Thanks Chad

Lindaloo · #10 Postby **Lindaloo** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:42 pm

I believe wxman linked the model to your thoughts Chad. Guess he assumed that you were relying on this particular model for landfall. And there have been ALOT of Texas folks 'round here lately.

OtherHD · #11 Postby **OtherHD** » Wed Jul 09, 2003 11:04 pm

Actually, the only person on the board that I know of that lives in the area is seadootoo. Say...where has seadootoo been anyway?? :?

#12 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 5:40 am

Sorry... Actually, my post wasn't aimed at anyone in particular, but everyone in general. There are quite a number of posters here "in the area" of the lower to mid TX coast - I include Houston in that group (myself included). Even as a professional, sometimes it's hard to avoid wishful forecasting at times. It's easy to get caught up in the excitement.

Guest · #13 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 6:07 am

Hope this thing does go to Mexico - we don't need the torrential rains or other effects of a tropical system. I don't think this one will be anything more than a TS. JMHO.

Patricia

wrkh99 · #14 Postby **wrkh99** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 6:43 am

Ticka is that reverse -removed- ?

Lindaloo · #15 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:45 am

Talk about an about face ticka!! :lol:

You were just recently complaining about not having any rain, you wanted some of it, now I believe you are gonna get it. :o :lol:

wrkh99 · #16 Postby **wrkh99** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 8:58 am

Ticka aren't you still in drought ?

Guest · #17 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 9:04 am

We are still 9 inches under our yearly rainfall. Wrkh you know me too well - reverse pychology(sic) LOL! WHO ME??

:-)

#18 Postby **Seadootoo** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 11:44 am

Hey OtherHD, I'm here just sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the hammer to drop on the first nail. :o

southerngale · #19 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 11:50 am

Welcome to storm2k seadootoo

#20 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 11:53 am

Seadootoo, what are your Local Mets saying at this point in time about TS Claudette and the future? Biggest threat is from your area S IMO.

corpus christi bound???

corpus christi bound???

Interesting

Actually

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