TC Bertha

#2501 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:25 pm

Arkestra wrote:Do you think the NHC can updgrade it straight from Cat1 to Cat3?

I strongly doubt they will, but Ive been surprised before.

SkyDragon · #2502 Postby **SkyDragon** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:26 pm

fact789 wrote:
Arkestra wrote:Do you think the NHC can updgrade it straight from Cat1 to Cat3?

I strongly doubt they will, but Ive been surprised before.

After Arthur, You Never Know!

#2503 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:26 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
SkyDragon wrote:Bertha passed Katrina and Charley all in one day!
112 and 125!

I believe Dean has the largest thread (almost 600 pages).

have to remember all of these classic storms alot of us spent PREPARING for the inevitable and could not post nearly as often..

Also there were far fewer members then.

Kennethb · #2504 Postby **Kennethb** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:27 pm

NHC can upgrade to whatever it determines a storm to be.

Without any recon, I think they will be conservative. Though the satellite presentation is very symetrical, cloud tops are not as cold.

#2505 Postby **OuterBanker** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:28 pm

What an absolutely fascinating hurricane. History making from it's inception. I am now fairly certain that this will have no affect the US mainland. And for those that think that NC may need the rain we certainly don't want a cat 2 or 3 hurricane to provide it. Besides, we are in a rainy, stormy pattern this week and a lot of areas have received a lot of rain (some received 6 to 7 inches yesterday from training tstorms). But I love to witness history. I really hope she doesn't threaten anyone, just a beauty to behold and just like I like to see her, at a distance.

btw. RL3, KWT, Hurrikan and others. I have been watching tennis since the Aussies dominated (Laver, Newcombe, etc). Yesterdays match was the best I've seen in my lifetime, wow.

SkyDragon · #2506 Postby **SkyDragon** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:30 pm

OuterBanker wrote:What an absolutely fascinating hurricane. History making from it's inception. I am now fairly certain that this will have no affect the US mainland. And for those that think that NC may need the rain we certainly don't want a cat 2 or 3 hurricane to provide it. Besides, we are in a rainy, stormy pattern this week and a lot of areas have received a lot of rain (some received 6 to 7 inches yesterday from training tstorms). But I love to witness history. I really hope she doesn't threaten anyone, just a beauty to behold and just like I like to see her, at a distance.

btw. RL3, KWT, Hurrikan and others. I have been watching tennis since the Aussies dominated (Laver, Newcombe, etc). Yesterdays match was the best I've seen in my lifetime, wow.

No one wants a hurricane!

#2507 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:31 pm

OuterBanker wrote:What an absolutely fascinating hurricane. History making from it's inception. I am now fairly certain that this will have no affect the US mainland. And for those that think that NC may need the rain we certainly don't want a cat 2 or 3 hurricane to provide it. Besides, we are in a rainy, stormy pattern this week and a lot of areas have received a lot of rain (some received 6 to 7 inches yesterday from training tstorms). But I love to witness history. I really hope she doesn't threaten anyone, just a beauty to behold and just like I like to see her, at a distance.

btw. RL3, KWT, Hurrikan and others. I have been watching tennis since the Aussies dominated (Laver, Newcombe, etc). Yesterdays match was the best I've seen in my lifetime, wow.

Indeed, we've gotten nearly 4 inches the last couple days here are the house (finally!).

#2508 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:32 pm

Main Hurricane Threads with the most pages:

Dean=583
Ivan=352
Wilma=282
Noel=196
Frances=187
Bertha ????
Charley=124
Katrina=111
Ophelia=90
Rita=53

#2509 Postby **arkestra** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:36 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 20:01:24 N Lon : 51:37:06 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.7mb/112.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.9 6.1 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +2.6C Cloud Region Temp : -63.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

KWT · #2510 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:40 pm

Wow holy hell Bertha has big time strengthened since I saw it 12hrs, that eye is a peach, looks like its determined to mug off Bertha 96 in nearly everyway!

Thats got to be a major hurricane now...oh boy I hope it can keep this up for recon tomorrow!

#2511 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:43 pm

KWT wrote:Wow holy hell Bertha has big time strengthened since I saw it 12hrs, that eye is a peach, looks like its determined to mug off Bertha 96 in nearly everyway!

Thats got to be a major hurricane now...oh boy I hope it can keep this up for recon tomorrow!

NHC will not send a plane tommorow.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 071300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 07 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

#2512 Postby **mutley** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:44 pm

Arkestra wrote:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.7mb/112.4kt

How accurate are these estimates? Holy smokes.

#2513 Postby **arkestra** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:45 pm

mutley wrote:
Arkestra wrote:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.7mb/112.4kt

How accurate are these estimates? Holy smokes.

I actually wonder the same.

#2514 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:46 pm

mutley wrote:
Arkestra wrote:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.7mb/112.4kt

How accurate are these estimates? Holy smokes.

They can be off. But there are 5 or 6 different dvorak estimates out there, so the NHC will use a consensus.

#2515 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:47 pm

Well I called it right when i heard the names for the 2008 season...........i read bertha on the list and thought to myself "big bertha"

Anyway...........back to the topic at hand

#2516 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:50 pm

At least the question of "where is the center" has not popped today!!!

KWT · #2517 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:50 pm

Why aren't they now sending in recon, or is that Bermuda isn't seen as important enough to bother?!

SkyDragon · #2518 Postby **SkyDragon** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:50 pm

The first time I heard the name Bertha, it was in a Math question about probability!

"Answer the following questions with certain,likely,uncertain,and never"...
The Pacific ocean will be renamed Bertha!!!"

#2519 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:51 pm

KWT wrote:Why aren't they now sending in recon, or is that Bermuda isn't seen as important enough to bother?!

If it becomes a threat to Bermuda, they will fly into it.

#2520 Postby **mutley** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:53 pm

RL3AO wrote:
mutley wrote:
Arkestra wrote:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.7mb/112.4kt

How accurate are these estimates? Holy smokes.

They can be off. But there are 5 or 6 different dvorak estimates out there, so the NHC will use a consensus.

Thanks, I didn't know there were multiple estimates. The growing symmetry over the last six hours, seems to match the revving up of these estimates.

TC Bertha

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