A jog to the north??

[Steve H.]

Seems Claudette has slowed and taken a slight jog to the north. Anyone verify that?

[Pebbles]

It does look like that doesn't it! Would like to hear what others have to say on that too. So hard to be sure without a nice view of an eye and sometimes it seems as if sat pics can be so deceiving.

[wxman57]

Recon doesn't verify it. It's exceedingly difficult to estimate movement on a system that barely has a LLC using IR imagery. Recon says it's moving almost due west. You're just seeing spot flare-ups in convection that make it appear to jog north. Note that the center is exposed near the southwest side of that big ball of convection. Water vapor imagery suggests that the southerly shear is on the increase again, driving convection more north of the center. That's what you're seeing.

[ColdFront77]

What we may be seeing with Claudette and/or are seeing with Claudette can evolve into something more interesting. I have seen this with past storms over the years.

The center I estimated was several miles northeast of the 5:00 PM ET center and then the 8:00 PM ET position was 34 miles west of the 5:00 PM ET position.

[wxman57]

The 5pm fix was via satellite, though, not recon. With the center not really visible on satellite, there could be large errors. I'm curious, ColdFront, what are you using to estimate the center to within a few miles? That would be more accurate than recon.

[ColdFront77]

The difference of the 5:00 PM Eastern position estimate of 16.0ºN 79.7ºW to the 8:00 PM Eastern position estimate of 16.1ºN 80.2ºW. The distance between these two positions is 34 miles. This puts the average speed between 11 and 12 miles per hour.

If this isn't movement, it obviously has to be a relocation of the center.

I have watched tropical systems do this over the years. It isn't that rare... this makes the future model runs (used as guidance), more interesting, as well.

[Air Force Met]

The system has slowed BIGTIME. Average speed b/w fixes at 17z and 23z was 17 kts, now it is down to 15 kts.

[Stormsfury]

The LLC is better defined than yesterday per vortex data, however, the LLC is on the southwestern edge of the deep convection ... furthermore, Claudette appears lopsided ... with the MLC off to the NE of the LLC ...

Claudette is definitely slowing down ...

SF

[wxman57]

No, it hasn't slowed much. My point was that the 5pm position was probably in error as it was satellite-estimated. You could be easily off 20-30 miles using satellite on a system with a barely discernable center. Distance between the 00Z position and 03Z was about 55 miles, indicating about 18 kts. These postions had recon support, so they are probably more correct.

[Air Force Met]

Yes WXMAN57...it has. According to the vortex messages...it was moving b/w 21 and 24 kts earlier today. From the latest 4 fixes, it is moving at 22, 17, 15 and 15 kts. It has lost 7 kts of momentum. That's significant seeing how it was moving at upwards of 24 kts earlier.

[ColdFront77]

Tropical Storm Claudette's first advisory [at 5:00 PM ET, yesterday {30 hours ago}] indicated a speed of 29 miles per hour/25 knots. (25.2 knots)

A eight mile per hour slow down is 27.6%.

[Air Force Met]

I think you mean 27%. Actually...if you take 25 kts as the max...and look at the last 4 hours at 15...thats a 40% slowdown.

[Lindaloo]

Both local mets here have said this evening that it appears to be slowing down.

[ColdFront77]

Right, Air Force Met, one of those annoying typos we make.

It is a 27.6% slow down, not a 2.7% slow down. Sorry about that.

[Air Force Met]

No doubt about it Lindaloo. It moved 40 miles or so in 3 hours...almost 15 kts. Earlier today it would have move 70 miles in that same 3 hours.