TC Bertha

[WmE]

Maybe a transcription that should be 984?

Highly unlikely. It should be around 960mbar.

[KWT]

Yep Crazy unless Bertha was stronger then the orginal estimates predicted they were. Still the 948mbs estimate is very low I have to admit, maybe they meant 958mbs?

I still think they should have recon for tomorrow but its too late now I guess.

[HURAKAN]

Maybe a transcription that should be 984?

984 mb is about 75 knots.

[MiamiensisWx]

Estimated central pressure at 5 p.m. EDT yesterday:

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N...47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al02/al022008.public.015.shtml?

Estimated central pressure at 5 p.m. EDT today:

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.1 N...52.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al02/al022008.public.019.shtml?

That is an undeniable operational decrease of 50 mb within ~24 hours. That definitely meets the criteria for rapid deepening.

[tolakram]

Mimic:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

Interesting structure changes as it strengthened.

[Scorpion]

I doubt its a typo.. 948 mb sounds pretty reasonable for a strengthening Cat 3

[cheezyWXguy]

Maybe a transcription that should be 984?

Highly unlikely. It should be around 960mbar.

yeah, a 115mph hurricane at 984mb is a lot less likely than a 115mph hurricane at 948

[KWT]

MiamiensisWx, yep thats very impressive, bordering on exceptional deepening I think in fact!

[jaxfladude]

Major Hurricane Bertha, major concern for Bermuda?

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 20:05:54 N Lon : 51:49:00 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.7mb/117.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.1 6.1 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -62.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[x-y-no]

Estimated central pressure at 5 p.m. EDT yesterday:

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N...47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al02/al022008.public.015.shtml?

Estimated central pressure at 5 p.m. EDT today:

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.1 N...52.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al02/al022008.public.019.shtml?

That is an undeniable operational decrease of 50 mb within ~24 hours. That definitely meets the criteria for rapid deepening.

And 27mb of that drop was in the last six hours.

[KWT]

I doubt its a typo.. 948 mb sounds pretty reasonable for a strengthening Cat 3

Hmmm looks like they ar eusing the 6.0 estimate from the dvorak as a pressure guide but probably assuming strongest winds aren't mixing down yet?
Still lets not forget this is a small system and usually they don't tend to have deep pressures, expect of course for Wilma!

[RL3AO]

948 is very very wierd for a small 100kt system. After all, Felix peaked at 929.

[jaxfladude]

Estimated central pressure at 5 p.m. EDT yesterday:

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N...47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al02/al022008.public.015.shtml?

Estimated central pressure at 5 p.m. EDT today:

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.1 N...52.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al02/al022008.public.019.shtml?




That is an undeniable operational decrease of 50 mb within ~24 hours. That definitely meets the criteria for rapid deepening.

And 27mb of that drop was in the last six hours.

Global Warming/Just favorable conditions to blame for this and the last few seasons of "rapid deepening" that we have seen.......?????

[PhillyWX]

Estimated central pressure at 5 p.m. EDT yesterday:

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N...47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al02/al022008.public.015.shtml?

Estimated central pressure at 5 p.m. EDT today:

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.1 N...52.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al02/al022008.public.019.shtml?

That is an undeniable operational decrease of 50 mb within ~24 hours. That definitely meets the criteria for rapid deepening.

And 27mb of that drop was in the last six hours.

Not quite Wilma-esque but still very significant and rare occurrence given it's over the Central Atlantic and not in one of the typical hot spots for bombing out.

It's getting some great assistance from the upper levels with that jet streak to its north helping to evacuate the storm's updraft much more efficiently.

[HURAKAN]

Date: 03-07 JUL 2008
Hurricane-3 BERTHA
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 12.60 -22.70 07/03/09Z 30 1008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 13.30 -24.70 07/03/15Z 35 1006 TROPICAL STORM
3 13.60 -25.60 07/03/21Z 35 1006 TROPICAL STORM
4 13.40 -27.00 07/04/03Z 40 1006 TROPICAL STORM
5 14.20 -28.30 07/04/09Z 40 1002 TROPICAL STORM
6 14.90 -29.70 07/04/15Z 45 1000 TROPICAL STORM
7 15.50 -31.60 07/04/21Z 45 1000 TROPICAL STORM
8 16.00 -33.50 07/05/03Z 45 1000 TROPICAL STORM
9 16.50 -35.30 07/05/09Z 45 1000 TROPICAL STORM
10 16.60 -37.30 07/05/15Z 45 1000 TROPICAL STORM
11 16.70 -39.30 07/05/21Z 45 1000 TROPICAL STORM
12 17.00 -41.20 07/06/03Z 45 1000 TROPICAL STORM
13 17.30 -43.20 07/06/09Z 45 1000 TROPICAL STORM
14 17.40 -45.10 07/06/15Z 45 1000 TROPICAL STORM
15 18.10 -47.00 07/06/21Z 50 998 TROPICAL STORM
16 18.60 -48.90 07/07/03Z 55 994 TROPICAL STORM
17 19.30 -50.20 07/07/09Z 65 987 HURRICANE-1
18 19.60 -51.30 07/07/15Z 80 975 HURRICANE-1
19 20.10 -52.10 07/07/21Z 100 948 HURRICANE-3

Rapid Intensification. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[x-y-no]

Global Warming/Just favorable conditions to blame for this and the last few seasons of "rapid deepening" that we have seen.......?????

Let's not go there!

[Stratosphere747]

"Estimated" readings...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

5.62 Noel

I expect this to be beaten next adivisory. Flix had 18.03, I don't feel Bertha will beat it. So only below 3 of last years storms.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Estimated central pressure at 5 p.m. EDT yesterday:

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N...47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al02/al022008.public.015.shtml?

Estimated central pressure at 5 p.m. EDT today:

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.1 N...52.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al02/al022008.public.019.shtml?




That is an undeniable operational decrease of 50 mb within ~24 hours. That definitely meets the criteria for rapid deepening.

And 27mb of that drop was in the last six hours.

Global Warming/Just favorable conditions to blame for this and the last few seasons of "rapid deepening" that we have seen.......?????

GLOBAL WARMING HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH IT BECAUSE IT'S NOT REAL AND TWO i WOULDN'T BE SURPRIZED IF WE GET A cAT.4 OUT OF THIS PUPPY!!!!!