TC Bertha

[KWT]

Wow that looks amazing right now, not really all that surprising its a major hurricane right now, you can really see the staadium effect as well!
Perfect circular CDO, amazing looking hurricane, esp when we consider its JULY!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like emily at near her peak, the only difference is that she had a ring of red.

[HURAKAN]

Just got a letter from Bertha. She says that to please excuse her for coming late with the fireworks for the July 4th celebration!!!

[tolakram]

Those cloud tops in the latest visual are high enough to register red (look close, 3 or 4 red pixels ).



Looking at the AVN it appears Bertha has been going through waves of strengthening as deep convection fires near the center, spreads out and the tops warm, then another burst starts. I suspect it's beginning another burst, it will be interesting to see how strong it can get.

[Normandy]

Wow. I'm stunned. Its not as if Bertha had ideal conditions for rapid deepening, and it might even suggest that Bertha could have been stronger throughout its life than indicated. And its not question its a major....a storm does not need red and black cloud tops to be considered a major...usually if a storm has red and black IR cloudtops with Bertha's presentation, its an upper end Cat4 or Cat5.

[hurricanefloyd5]

that high is going to strenghten again alittle bit right?????

[cycloneye]

Last chance for all to look at the stadium effect as sun is going down.

[Normandy]

In addition to Bertha's intensity, it should also be noted that Bertha is moving more northerly now. An overlay of the forecast points on the NHC floater shows Bertha is starting to track well north of the forecast points.

[KWT]

Amazing cycloneye, that eye is like a black hole with how dark it is thanks to the shadowing effect of the eyewall around it.

As for presentation, its structure is cracking, in the Caribbean Sea this would be top end 4/5 material IMO...

[HURAKAN]

By the looks, it's a strong cat 3 or low cat 4.

[MiamiensisWx]

400-850 mb streamline analysis still suggests a possible turn to the west:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

[HURAKAN]

Take the pleasure of looking at this loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 030800.GIF

Bertha at its best!!

[weatherguru18]

IMO, a recon won't be sent. Budget far too tight with a very long season ahead. Might be wrong on that. With a major forming this early in an area where tropical storms are rare at best does not bode well for this season. Those waters are awefully fertile.

[KWT]

Hmm that presentation looks around 105-110kts to me, probably lack of deep convection would put it at the lower end but that may well change in the next 4-6hrs, we will have to watch very closely this eveing and tonight on IR!

[RL3AO]

400-850 mb streamline analysis still suggests a possible turn to the west:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

I posted that earlier but go no response. Why to the models/NHC have this turn so quickly? Its in the weakness right now and going NW. Why won't it turn west later tonight/tomorrow?

[KWT]

RL3AO, hmmm I'm not sure maybe the models are being a little agressive though the extra strength may allow this system to pull further north then those current steering currents would suggest?

[HURAKAN]

400-850 mb streamline analysis still suggests a possible turn to the west:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

I posted that earlier but go no response. Why to the models/NHC have this turn so quickly? Its in the weakness right now and going NW. Why won't it turn west later tonight/tomorrow?

If you press "Zoom" you get this:

[Cryomaniac]

With a major forming this early in an area where tropical storms are rare at best does not bode well for this season. Those waters are awefully fertile.

I've got to agree with that, unfortunately. I think this season could be pretty hyperactive.

[cheezyWXguy]

400-850 mb streamline analysis still suggests a possible turn to the west:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

I posted that earlier but go no response. Why to the models/NHC have this turn so quickly? Its in the weakness right now and going NW. Why won't it turn west later tonight/tomorrow?

I dont know, but ive noticed that the BAMs (though they lack credibility in this location) and a few of the other models in the "spaghetti" maps have begun to shift more westward...NHC is now riding with the easternmost branch of guidance

[Thunder44]

400-850 mb streamline analysis still suggests a possible turn to the west:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

I posted that earlier but go no response. Why to the models/NHC have this turn so quickly? Its in the weakness right now and going NW. Why won't it turn west later tonight/tomorrow?

Because Bertha is forecast to slow down. The trough coming off the east coast later this week, will be breaking down the ridge over the West Atlantic.