TC Bertha

[brunota2003]

400-850 mb streamline analysis still suggests a possible turn to the west:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

I posted that earlier but go no response. Why to the models/NHC have this turn so quickly? Its in the weakness right now and going NW. Why won't it turn west later tonight/tomorrow?

I see, and looking at that, it would explain why the Hurricane has been tracking basically NW today. So according to that, it should gradually turn back to the west (maybe the reason for the slow down, as they cannot turn on a dime).

[KWT]

HURAKAN, looks like its passing the weakness now and the upper high is nearby so we may see a breif turn back towards the WNW over the next 24hrs I think?
Still we shall have to wait and see I suspect about what happens, the stronger system may resist bending back westwards...

[MiamiensisWx]

RL3AO, hmmm I'm not sure maybe the models are being a little agressive though the extra strength may allow this system to pull further north then those current steering currents would suggest?

The fact is that 400-850 mb reflects the mean steering and pattern from the upper levels to the lower levels. The following streamline at 500-850 mb also indicates a possible west turn. 400-500 mb are the upper levels.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

Bertha will be influenced by the upper levels, and the data doesn't suggest an immediate recurvature within the short term/

[Thunder44]

Since storm has a lower pressure now at 948mb, we need to look at higher levels now at 250 -850mb. You see here the weakeness is more pronounced:

[jaxfladude]

This talk of a turn to the west is just for awhile and not long term, right?

[Derek Ortt]

you need to use a deeper layer than 400-850

should be using the 250-850 or even a deeper mean given this structure

[KWT]

Hmmm yeah its interesting Miami, you can see the weakness to the N/NE which is probably still proving to be strong enough with the extra strength this system has to allow it to gain more latitude. If steering currents don't change much you would expect a bend more to the west again I suspect?

[CajunMama]

With a major forming this early in an area where tropical storms are rare at best does not bode well for this season. Those waters are awefully fertile.

I've got to agree with that, unfortunately. I think this season could be pretty hyperactive.

it's only the second storm of the season. how can you say it'll be a hyperactive season? There may not be another storm for (let's just pull a number out) for another 8 weeks.

[brunota2003]

you need to use a deeper layer than 400-850

should be using the 250-850 or even a deeper mean given this structure

All of the steering levels there show it reaching the peak of Northern extent for it's location.

[wxman57]

Yes, it looks like Bertha has reached the TUTT weakness. And with a stronger storm it's taking more of a turn for now. But by tomorrow, that high off the southeast U.S. Coast builds eastward and weakens. This should keep Bertha on a WNW track for another 36-48 hours followed by a turn to the north. Bertha may even track westerly for a bit, maybe 275-280 degrees. Right now I'm measuring about 301 degrees at 10 kts.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hmmm yeah its interesting Miami, you can see the weakness to the N/NE which is probably still proving to be strong enough with the extra strength this system has to allow it to gain more latitude. If steering currents don't change much you would expect a bend more to the west again I suspect?

Yes the system continues to gain latitude, but I suspect that by 6-12 hours from now we should see a bend to the w, based on the steering currents. even at the upper levels this westward steering is noticeable.

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

This talk of a turn to the west is just for awhile and not long term, right?

You're correct. Wxman57's post (above) reflects my thoughts.

[Blown Away]

Is a weak Bermuda high a sign of things to come for this season? Local met's keep harping on a persistent east coast trough.

[soonertwister]

Maybe one of you experts can answer my question.

In Forecast/Advisory #19, Bertha is at 948 mb with 100 kt winds. How does a hurricane like that have a complete absence of winds in excess of 64 kt both SE and SW from the center?

[Category 5]

With a major forming this early in an area where tropical storms are rare at best does not bode well for this season. Those waters are awefully fertile.

I've got to agree with that, unfortunately. I think this season could be pretty hyperactive.

it's only the second storm of the season. how can you say it'll be a hyperactive season? There may not be another storm for (let's just pull a number out) for another 8 weeks.

We could've said the opposite about 2004 at this time "No storms yet this is gonna be a dead season". Basing the future on one storm is foolish.

[KWT]

Yeah, the weakness is still probably close enough though to allow the system to gain decent latitude though I think it may bend back more to a 285 heading in about 12hrs time breifly as it gets closer to that upper high...you can see why the BAM suite are further south then the main models given that large upper high, but the dynamic models do prog it to weaken decently as a new trough comes down.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yes, it looks like Bertha has reached the TUTT weakness. And with a stronger storm it's taking more of a turn for now. But by tomorrow, that high off the southeast U.S. Coast builds eastward and weakens. This should keep Bertha on a WNW track for another 36-48 hours followed by a turn to the north. Bertha may even track westerly for a bit, maybe 275-280 degrees. Right now I'm measuring about 301 degrees at 10 kts.

Wait..so if the high in the SE US/fla is weaker than the one near bermuda, wouldnt that make the system more inclined to break through the weaker high to the west, rather than the stronger one to its north? What if that trough isnt as strong as the models predict? Even the GFS, which constantly overdoes troughs is slowly shifting back west...

[KWT]

With a major forming this early in an area where tropical storms are rare at best does not bode well for this season. Those waters are awefully fertile.

I've got to agree with that, unfortunately. I think this season could be pretty hyperactive.

it's only the second storm of the season. how can you say it'll be a hyperactive season? There may not be another storm for (let's just pull a number out) for another 8 weeks.

Yep true though to be fair there are many indicators that do point to there being a tleast a possiblity of a hyper-active seasons, we just have to wait and see don't we!

very interesting wxman57, how far west it gets in that time period will probably determine how much of a threat this is to Bermuda. FWIW the GFDL doesn't even show that WNW and just has it going more and omre to the NW/NNW over time.

[HURAKAN]

So far no indication of an EWRC.