TC Bertha

[KWT]

Bertha still looking very good and eye still looks decent as well with some convective bursting in the northern eyewall as well.

deltadog03, indeed the question is how well will the upper high break down, we've seen these highs be stubborn sometimes and also stronger then predicted, look at Katirna in Florida for examples of how much the models can under-estimate ridges sometimes. I don't think it will be a big deal here but it may make a huge difference to Bermudas hit chances.

[UpTheCreek]

Don't know that it's been mentioned, but your new avatar is a beautiful thing!

[KWT]

Agreed UpTheCreek, I'm in awe with this system, to think its as strong as the majors in 2006 got but this is in early July!

[cpdaman]

Oh its very possible. One good case study would be Andrew....140kt winds in the northern quadrant, 100kt winds in the southern quadrant. If we dumbed Andrew down to a 100 kt storm, the southern quadrant would register 60 kt winds, which is TS force. Of course comparing Andrew to this is stupid, because the latter is moving much much slower. Andrew was racing westward at 22 mph at landfall.[/quote]

nitpicking but if you had 140 northern quad and 100 southern quad

and then you imagined andrew was 100 norther side the ratio of 14/10 on the first example would mean for the second example the southern side would be about 71.4285714 on the not 60.

[HURAKAN]

Don't know that it's been mentioned, but your new avatar is a beautiful thing!

I try to do as much as I can with PowerPoint!!!

[UpTheCreek]

Agreed UpTheCreek, I'm in awe with this system, to think its as strong as the majors in 2006 got but this is in early July!

I'm amazed as well. Fortunately we've been spared yet again here in N.C. and although I know that one storm doesn't have anything to do with the next, I can't help but think it may be that "harbinger" of things to come this year. I know better, but it's sooo easy to think that way!

[UpTheCreek]

Don't know that it's been mentioned, but your new avatar is a beautiful thing!

I try to do as much as I can with PowerPoint!!!

Is that from a Powerpoint slide? Looks great!

Sorry folks, back on topic!

[hurricanefloyd5]

Here is an updated take on how I think things will go down....Now, just remember, if that ridge over bermuda dosn't break down as much......well.......

two things one what model is this and 2nd are more models picking up on the same thing as this model????

[RL3AO]

two things one what model is this and 2nd are more models picking up on the same thing as this model????

Thats not a model. Thats the flow of the atmosphere.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

[cpdaman]

this is the 200-700 mb steering flow and it is simply delta dog's analysis

[canegrl04]

Wow! Bertha is turning into Big Bertha.Last I seriously checked,she was forecast to be only a cat 1 'cane.Now shes getting scary.I hope she doesn't shock us all and head for the US

[KWT]

Thats not a model its current steering pattern image, it just shows the features at various levels of the atmosphere and from that we can deduce at least what the short term movement may be, but of course its an ever changing picture!

[cheezyWXguy]

Here is an updated take on how I think things will go down....Now, just remember, if that ridge over bermuda dosn't break down as much......well.......

two things one what model is this and 2nd are more models picking up on the same thing as this model????

Its not a model...its a diagram made in paint...and the BAMs have picked up on a westward bend near day 5, along with a few of the other spaghetti models, but at least 60% of them are still forecasting recurve near bermuda.

[deltadog03]

Sure, everything is changing with the atmos. I really don't see berth weakening anytime soon, so I used this map for such a deep cyclone. Now, like wxman said a couple of pages back, she is feeling the weakness for now, but should veer back west for time tomorrow as the old tutt leaves.

[cheezyWXguy]

Deltadog, how strong do you think bertha could get? cat 4?

[deltadog03]

I think she could peak out that high....

[jaxfladude]

We all want Bertha to be well east enough of Bermuda as not to have Bermuda take a direct hit or a too close of a brush on the strong side.........high surf for everyone is okay at worst.....be safe......

[Mecklenburg]

this must be hurricane bertha of 1996's twin

[MiamiensisWx]

this must be hurricane bertha of 1996's twin

...excluding the fact that Bertha '08 poses a very marginal threat to the CONUS.

[cycloneye]

Puerto Rico and the northern Leewards,BVI and the U.S.VI will see big swells from Bertha starting tommorow.Waves from 7-9 feet and maybe higher.So the surfers will be happy.