TC Bertha

[tolakram]

Slow down.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 030815.GIF

I see a weakening system and i believe, because of the northern turn, it's running into a lot of shear.

[brunota2003]

For the record -

Those who think Recon is flying tomorrow, it is NOT. No flights are scheduled for the next couple days.

The reasoning being there is not really much choice on where to put the Recon plane in the event an emergency crops up. If it becomes a definite threat to Bermuda, they will fly. Tomorrow's POD might show a flight scheduled when they issue it, but it prolly wouldn't be until Thursday at the earliest.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 07 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[hurricanefloyd5]

It looks to me that she is starting to stall I think or even at the point to where she is just drifting........

[canetracker]

Not sure about the stall, but taking it frame by frame, she is moving very slowly. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[orion]

Slow down.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 030815.GIF

I see a weakening system and i believe, because of the northern turn, it's running into a lot of shear.

Notice the shear tendency in that area though (the dotted blue line)... it's decreasing.

[jaxfladude]

Time 4 all of us to wish Bertha poleward and well east of Bermuda right now...


Edit I do not want any nasty surprises from Bertha...Bermuda should watch a wary eye on Bertha just in case....

[Thunder44]

Latest Dvorak T numbers:

07/2345 UTC 20.6N 52.1W T5.5/5.5 BERTHA

[Mecklenburg]

Latest Dvorak T numbers:

07/2345 UTC 20.6N 52.1W T5.5/5.5 BERTHA

does that mean bertha is weakening?

[RattleMan]

Latest Dvorak T numbers:

07/2345 UTC 20.6N 52.1W T5.5/5.5 BERTHA

does that mean bertha is weakening?

No...at 1745z it was T5.0/5.0.

[tolakram]

Here's another view that shows the cloud tops warming:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-jsl.html

Warming does not always equal weakening but something is going on. Very precise don't ya think.

[Thunder44]

Not sure about the stall, but taking it frame by frame, she is moving very slowly. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

You can't judge movement by looking at WV imagery. Especially from that far out. Look at this close up loop, and check the LatLon box. It looks like it's moving NW to N at a decent clip for the past few hours:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Mecklenburg]

Latest Dvorak T numbers:

07/2345 UTC 20.6N 52.1W T5.5/5.5 BERTHA

if it would reach T6 by the next advisory, we say hello to category 4 bertha

[pojo]

For the record -

Those who think Recon is flying tomorrow, it is NOT. No flights are scheduled for the next couple days.

The reasoning being there is not really much choice on where to put the Recon plane in the event an emergency crops up. If it becomes a definite threat to Bermuda, they will fly. Tomorrow's POD might show a flight scheduled when they issue it, but it prolly wouldn't be until Thursday at the earliest.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 07 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

thank you.... well put.

[cycloneye]

The latest ATCF update:

105 kts,952 mbs

AL, 02, 2008070800, , BEST, 0, 205N, 523W, 105, 952, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1013, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0,

[canetracker]

Not sure about the stall, but taking it frame by frame, she is moving very slowly. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

You can't judge movement by looking at WV imagery. Especially from that far out. Look at this close up loop, and check the LatLon box. It looks like it's moving NW to N at a decent clip for the past few hours:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Looks like it is being pulled up by the weakness and since that last image came in, it is moving at a fairly decent speed. Hopefully it will last and not affect any land masses.

[RL3AO]

952?

[ronjon]

Here's another view that shows the cloud tops warming:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-jsl.html

Warming does not always equal weakening but something is going on. Very precise don't ya think.

Yep, Bertha has reached her peak intensity, at least for the next few days - she is running into a shear zone that will just increase the further north or northwest she tracks. Already approaching 20 kts and may reach 30 kts within 24 hrs. Cloud tops starting to warm and her organization doesn't look as good as this afternoon.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

[jaxfladude]

Latest Dvorak T numbers:

07/2345 UTC 20.6N 52.1W T5.5/5.5 BERTHA

if it would reach T6 by the next advisory, we say hello to category 4 bertha

Thankfully Bertha seems to be a so called Fish Storm.....well east of Bermuda the best for all concerned...........hate to think if she/another Cane was doing this close to any island(s) out there or the CONUS or any other landmass...the "panic" that would ensue.....

[srainhoutx]

For the record -

Those who think Recon is flying tomorrow, it is NOT. No flights are scheduled for the next couple days.

The reasoning being there is not really much choice on where to put the Recon plane in the event an emergency crops up. If it becomes a definite threat to Bermuda, they will fly. Tomorrow's POD might show a flight scheduled when they issue it, but it prolly wouldn't be until Thursday at the earliest.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 07 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

thank you.... well put.

Could that change tomorrow with NOAA? G-4 would be in range would it not? Thanks for your service...

[tolakram]

The latest ATCF update:

105 kts,952 mbs

AL, 02, 2008070800, , BEST, 0, 205N, 523W, 105, 952, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1013, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0,

What sat pics do they use for this? What kind of delay. Bertha is obviously loosing strength at least in the last hour. Not arguing, just curious what kind of delay is in those observations.