TC Bertha

[pojo]

For the record -

Those who think Recon is flying tomorrow, it is NOT. No flights are scheduled for the next couple days.

The reasoning being there is not really much choice on where to put the Recon plane in the event an emergency crops up. If it becomes a definite threat to Bermuda, they will fly. Tomorrow's POD might show a flight scheduled when they issue it, but it prolly wouldn't be until Thursday at the earliest.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 07 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

thank you.... well put.

Could that change tomorrow with NOAA? G-4 would be in range would it not? Thanks for your service...

tomorrow all the planes could be in range.... it just depends on the availability of aircraft, crews and divert bases. I'm not back on base to talk with CARCAH about the possiblity. Key Latitude is 55W for range of aircraft.

[Stephanie]

I can't believe our "little Bertha" from yesterday has blown up! I saw the "eye" on her this morning in the news and couldn't believe it.

[senorpepr]

The latest ATCF update:

105 kts,952 mbs

AL, 02, 2008070800, , BEST, 0, 205N, 523W, 105, 952, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1013, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0,

What sat pics do they use for this? What kind of delay. Bertha is obviously loosing strength at least in the last hour. Not arguing, just curious what kind of delay is in those observations.

That is made using the SAB and TAFB fixes off of GOES-12 from 2345Z.

[cheezyWXguy]

The latest ATCF update:

105 kts,952 mbs

AL, 02, 2008070800, , BEST, 0, 205N, 523W, 105, 952, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1013, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0,

What sat pics do they use for this? What kind of delay. Bertha is obviously loosing strength at least in the last hour. Not arguing, just curious what kind of delay is in those observations.

That is made using the SAB and TAFB fixes off of GOES-12 from 2345Z.

why has the pressure gone up? I believe she might be close to peak, but not weakening...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The latest ATCF update:

105 kts,952 mbs

AL, 02, 2008070800, , BEST, 0, 205N, 523W, 105, 952, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1013, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0,

What sat pics do they use for this? What kind of delay. Bertha is obviously loosing strength at least in the last hour. Not arguing, just curious what kind of delay is in those observations.

Yes the cloud tops are warming some, but the eye is at its tightest. Also I'm pretty sure it peaked at near 110 knots, so 105 as of now is a good guest. Expect a weaking over the next 6-12 hours.

[deltadog03]

She is slowing quite a bit now...10kts...

[tolakram]

That is made using the SAB and TAFB fixes off of GOES-12 from 2345Z.

Interesting.



This is the 2345 image and it clearly shows the loss of convection near the center. I'll just keep watching, maybe I'll learn something.

[wxman57]

Looking at the WV loop, that TUTT is digging down to Bertha now. That'll increase shear, and I'm wondering if the GFDL has the right idea of an early northward turn east of the TUTT.

[hurricanewatcher-NY]

Is there any spaghetti model runs that can be posted?

(sorry to many pages to sift through)

[senorpepr]

why has the pressure gone up? I believe she might be close to peak, but not weakening...

I don't think it's really weakening.

Consider this...

The 18Z fix had a dvorak estimate of T5.0 (90 KT / 970 hPa). The 00Z fix was T5.5 (102KT / 960 hPa). The 21Z advisory mentioned that all the subjective dvorak estimates were T5.0, but the objected estimate (CIMSS) was T6.0 (115 KT / 948 hPa). The forecaster made a compromise. Truthfully, I believe the pressure on the 21Z advisory is a wee too low. I think the forecaster "adjusted" the pressure more appropriately on the best track.

[cheezyWXguy]

That is made using the SAB and TAFB fixes off of GOES-12 from 2345Z.

Interesting.



This is the 2345 image and it clearly shows the loss of convection near the center. I'll just keep watching, maybe I'll learn something.

well, it is just a little after the D-min...which means that convection could pick up during the night. Bertha may have peaked, and might be slowly weakening, but if she resumes a w-wnw track, water temps will begin to increase again, and shear will decrease again.

[wxman57]

By the way, I measure a 6-hr movement of 320 deg. at 8.5 kts. 3-hr movement of 320 deg. at 9.5 kts.

[senorpepr]

Is there any spaghetti model runs that can be posted?

(sorry to many pages to sift through)

[pojo]

Latest Dvorak T numbers:

07/2345 UTC 20.6N 52.1W T5.5/5.5 BERTHA

if it would reach T6 by the next advisory, we say hello to category 4 bertha

Thankfully Bertha seems to be a so called Fish Storm.....well east of Bermuda the best for all concerned...........hate to think if she/another Cane was doing this close to any island(s) out there or the CONUS or any other landmass...the "panic" that would ensue.....

the panic has already ensued... and we haven't flown a mission yet.

[hurricanewatcher-NY]

Is there any spaghetti model runs that can be posted?

(sorry to many pages to sift through)

thank you senorpepr..

[soonertwister]

why has the pressure gone up? I believe she might be close to peak, but not weakening...

I don't think it's really weakening.

Consider this...

The 18Z fix had a dvorak estimate of T5.0 (90 KT / 970 hPa). The 00Z fix was T5.5 (102KT / 960 hPa). The 21Z advisory mentioned that all the subjective dvorak estimates were T5.0, but the objected estimate (CIMSS) was T6.0 (115 KT / 948 hPa). The forecaster made a compromise. Truthfully, I believe the pressure on the 21Z advisory is a wee too low. I think the forecaster "adjusted" the pressure more appropriately on the best track.

The timestamp used above with the 102/960 post was "2008070600". Maybe I'm reading that wrong, but that's 2 am this morning, either AST or EDT.

[tolakram]

well, it is just a little after the D-min.

To the best of my knowledge, recalling a conversation about this last year, tropical systems are not effected by dmax and dmin.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

well, it is just a little after the D-min.

To the best of my knowledge, recalling a conversation about this last year, tropical systems are not effected by dmax and dmin.

The cyclone likely peaked at near 110 knots. The eye is at its tightest and could be starting to weaken as it moves into less tchp, But anways, it is a good thing that the nhc is going to go with 105 knots to show in the record it was.

[soonertwister]

Disregard my previous reply. I now understand the timestanp format is YYYYMMDDHH.

Sorry.

[JonathanBelles]

AL, 02, 2008070800, , BEST, 0, 205N, 523W, 105, 952, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1013, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,