TC Bertha

Scorpion · #2821 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:07 pm

She's not weakening... that 948 mb at 5 was likely in error.

Ed Mahmoud · #2822 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:By the way, I measure a 6-hr movement of 320 deg. at 8.5 kts. 3-hr movement of 320 deg. at 9.5 kts.

Just staring at the floater, looks like it is on, or even ahead, of schedule for recurving. Seems to be North of forecast points already. Probably good news for Bermuda.

Its all good, nice to look out storm that never affects land during the slow part of the season.

jaxfladude · #2823 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:15 pm

....the panic has already ensued... and we haven't flown a mission yet.

BTW

for the work you guys do.....

#2824 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:20 pm

Stephanie wrote:I can't believe our "little Bertha" from yesterday has blown up! I saw the "eye" on her this morning in the news and couldn't believe it.

-dabs eyes with tissue- They grow up so quick, don't they? Seems like just yesterday she was emerging from the coast of Africa.

jaxfladude · #2825 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:23 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
Stephanie wrote:I can't believe our "little Bertha" from yesterday has blown up! I saw the "eye" on her this morning in the news and couldn't believe it.

-dabs eyes with tissue- They grow up so quick, don't they? Seems like just yesterday she was emerging from the coast of Africa.

Let's give her a iPod touch.
I think she's deserved it...
:cheesy:

Mecklenburg · #2826 Postby **Mecklenburg** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:23 pm

so bertha is starting to weaken now? :eek:

#2827 Postby **pojo** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:24 pm

jaxfladude wrote:
pojo wrote:....the panic has already ensued... and we haven't flown a mission yet.

BTW for the work you guys do.....

thanks.

#2828 Postby **shortwave** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:25 pm

seems like a lot of attention is focused on whats west, north, and northeast of Bertha, per usual...just underneath to the southeast on watervaporloops looks like it is being shoved north by another high pressure. Never noticed that quadrant of the synoptics discussed often.

MiamiensisWx · #2829 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:25 pm

I think we're giving an abundance of overflowing personification to a non-human entity, but to each his own.

Bertha will be a "fish spinner".

#2830 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:26 pm

wxman....just looking at the WV I see the tutt getting ready to leave out of the pic...I also see some clouds coming down directly to bertha's north. To me that looks like the eastern fringe of the Ridge...What do you think?

#2831 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:27 pm

jaxfladude wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:
Stephanie wrote:I can't believe our "little Bertha" from yesterday has blown up! I saw the "eye" on her this morning in the news and couldn't believe it.

-dabs eyes with tissue- They grow up so quick, don't they? Seems like just yesterday she was emerging from the coast of Africa.

Let's give her a iPod touch.
I think she's deserved it...

jaxfladude · #2832 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:30 pm

pojo wrote:
jaxfladude wrote:
pojo wrote:....the panic has already ensued... and we haven't flown a mission yet.

BTW for the work you guys do.....

thanks.

You are most welcome. 8-)

#2833 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:31 pm

Looking worse and worse.

Chacor · #2834 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:31 pm

The storm hasn't weakened; the pressure was too low at the previous advisory. This has been corrected to 952 mbar in the ATCF file.

For what it's worth, Bertha officially underwent RI by dropping more than 42 mbar in 24 hours.

cheezyWXguy · #2835 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:32 pm

tolakram wrote:

Looking worse and worse.

eh...i dont know what youre looking at...it looks pretty much the same as it did before. In fact I think convection might be slightly deeper on the E/NE quad.

#2836 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:34 pm

deltadog03 wrote:wxman....just looking at the WV I see the tutt getting ready to leave out of the pic...I also see some clouds coming down directly to bertha's north. To me that looks like the eastern fringe of the Ridge...What do you think?

I see an upper low SSE-S of Bermuda near 29N/64W moving westward and a jet digging south to the east of this low. Outflow on Bertha's north side is streaming NE up the TUTT. Could be the TUTT has helped to ventilate Bertha today. But will the high build in front of Bertha fast enough to prevent recurvature tonight/tomorrow? I think the NHC will make an eastward track adjustment at 10.

#2837 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:36 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
tolakram wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg

Looking worse and worse.

eh...i dont know what you're looking at...it looks pretty much the same as it did before. In fact I think convection might be slightly deeper on the E/NE quad.

Convective tops have warmed considerably in the last few hours, a sign of weakening.

#2838 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:wxman....just looking at the WV I see the tutt getting ready to leave out of the pic...I also see some clouds coming down directly to bertha's north. To me that looks like the eastern fringe of the Ridge...What do you think?

I see an upper low SSE-S of Bermuda near 29N/64W moving westward and a jet digging south to the east of this low. Outflow on Bertha's north side is streaming NE up the TUTT. Could be the TUTT has helped to ventilate Bertha today. But will the high build in front of Bertha fast enough to prevent recurvature tonight/tomorrow? I think the NHC will make an eastward track adjustment at 10.

True...I just seen that ULL as well. I guess by tomorrow we should really have a better handle on where she will go...I think it is possible this goes out tonight or tomorrow. I wonder what kind of monkey wrench that ULL will have..If any.

Chacor · #2839 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:41 pm

Respectfully, wxman, I'm not sure it's weakening that much. The coverage of -60C convection is still there and the only real warming has been the loss of whatever few -70C convective bursts there were. Also, the eye has cleared out a bit despite the weakening convection.

2330:

0115:

#2840 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:46 pm

It seem that every one is at ease here thinking that Bertha will Go to Bermuda. Well if she stalls or slows down it will be a whole new game. It (could )still come some where to the south east coast. I wouldn't put my guard down just yet. Too many things can turn on us here. I have said Bermuda from day 1 and still do. But just cause it has gone a little North don't put your guard down and say whew. Wait till Bertha sings first then say whew. I am not saying it is going to go to the EC just that it is not over yet. Just keep your eyes and ears open. JIMO :wink:

TC Bertha

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