TC Bertha

[Derek Ortt]

aw shucks... it could have been 115 kts...


i get the feeling somehow that this season will surpass 1999's 5 storms reaching category 4 status

we already exceeded that season just 3 years ago

we had 4 cat 5s and a cat 4 that was borderline 4/5 in 2005 (one cat 5 and the borderline 4/5 were also in JULY)

[Mecklenburg]

aw shucks... it could have been 115 kts...


i get the feeling somehow that this season will surpass 1999's 5 storms reaching category 4 status

we already exceeded that season just 3 years ago

we had 4 cat 5s and a cat 4 that was borderline 4/5 in 2005 (one cat 5 and the borderline 4/5 were also in JULY)

not really, it was a tie...

2005

DENNIS - 4
EMILY - 5
KATRINA - 5
RITA- 5
WILMA - 5

1999

BRET - 4
CINDY - 4
FLOYD - 4
GERT - 4
LENNY - 4

[Mecklenburg]

you know, it's right... it's pretty rare to have a Cat-4 in July... can someone enumerate atlantic storms that reached category 4 in July besides Dennis and Emily?

[Mecklenburg]

BTW, the Category 4 canes of 1999 we're on the last weeks of August and early September... while Lenny was rare in November

[RL3AO]

By the way, the running best track has been adjusted for the 18z advisory.

AL, 02, 2008070718, , BEST, 0, 199N, 516W, 100, 952, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 100, 1013, 200, 15, 120, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D, 12, NEQ, 270, 180, 90, 270

[george_r_1961]

from the 11:00PM EST discussion:

BY DAYS 4 AND 5 THE STEERING CURRENTS
ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND BERTHA WILL PROBABLY MEANDER FOR A
LITTLE BIT.


I'd say that is pretty open-ended. NHC does not want to commit to recurve yet that is for sure.

meander for a little bit before moving which direction?

Most likely NE but in the unlikely event that high pressure builds back to the north then it may get interesting this weekend.

Chances of this going to the US are slim..but certainly not nonexistant. If Bertha does stall for a day or two it could still be with us this weekend or even early next week and it just isnt possible to say for certain where a storm will be in say 6-7 days.

For that reason and that reason alone the US isnt completely out of the woods.

[Chacor]

HURDAT says only three Cat 4 or 5 July hurricanes in history: An unnamed one in 1926, Dennis, and Emily.

[DanKellFla]

952 Mb
Oh my Once again, intesity surprises.

[Mecklenburg]

what do the models say for next week? would a new tropical wave emerge over west africa?

[MiamiensisWx]

HURDAT says only three Cat 4 or 5 July hurricanes in history: An unnamed one in 1926, Dennis, and Emily.

...and the July 1926 hurricane's peak intensity was likely overestimated. The actual intensity was likely closer to 100 kt, though it was still a major hurricane over the Bahamas. That TC eventually struck east-central FL near Merritt Island (Cat 2).

[Mecklenburg]

hmmm... unisys sometimes mess things up on their maps... just like this... bertha became a tropical depression just as before she reached hurricane intensity

[brunota2003]

Well you know, QS did show Bertha as a tropical wave last night, so...xD

[fci]

from the 11:00PM EST discussion:

BY DAYS 4 AND 5 THE STEERING CURRENTS
ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND BERTHA WILL PROBABLY MEANDER FOR A
LITTLE BIT.


I'd say that is pretty open-ended. NHC does not want to commit to recurve yet that is for sure.

meander for a little bit before moving which direction?

I don't take this commentary as a hesitation to committing to the recurve
It would meander for a little bit awaiting the curve out to sea.
There is zero reason to expect anything else at this time.

That's how I interpret it and assimilate the comments I have been reading by the Pro Mets and the excellent analysis provided by others in the thread and the models thread.

[soonertwister]

By my calculations, for the last 24 hours Bertha as been moving WNW by NW (299.4) at an average forward speed of 10.7 kt (12.3 mph).

However, since my observation concludes that the NHC is parroting the bearing and speed determinations of NRL three hours earlier, the true bearing and speed as of somewhat more than three hours ago is WNW by NW (297.9) at 11.2 kt (12.9 mph)

[HURAKAN]

Good night!

[sponger]

Looking good. Solid swell window setting up for the east coast.

[Sanibel]

Holding 27*SST. We could see a weakening due to passing from its tropical airmass into a more hostile upper environment while over marginal SST's.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hey, as some of you may have noticed, there's an ULL south of bermuda moving slowly SW...would this create a weakness to the west of the system, possibly putting it on a more westerly path?

[TSSouth]

So can the se u.s. expect swell from bertha?

[soonertwister]

So can the se u.s. expect swell from bertha?

If you are looking for good surf, I'd suggest at a minimum someplace like Beacon's in Cali. It's fairly safe and usually reliable.

Honestly, it partially depends on how close Bertha gets to the Carolina shores. Right now she's a small cane, so her wave signature won't be as large. I'd say that even without a close approach 5-7 isn't unthinkable.