Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

[frankp]

I think there will be many powerful storms this year because of global warming heating up the ocean waters.

Al, is that you?

Lol! It's too bad it is true about climate change though. Instead of warming it would be better if things were getting colder

[bantafun]

I'm really worried about global warming. There have been so many fires and floods

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm really worried about global warming. There have been so many fires and floods

There is nothing what so ever to worry about, hurricanes, tornadoe's, Fires, and floods have been going on for hundred of millions of years. Learn to live with it!

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z 7/9/08

Nothing too much to look at yet.

GFS


UKMET

[KWT]

Really not all that much coming off Africa, a little area of deep convection but nothing that strikes me as likely to develop into a system.

[CourierPR]

Really not all that much coming off Africa, a little area of deep convection but nothing that strikes me as likely to develop into a system.

I'd keep an eye on the disturbed weather near 35W and 8N as it moves west. You never know what might pop up.

[NDG]

It will be interesting as these waves or if any develop as they march westward across the Atlantic into the eastern Caribbean, conditions in the eastern Caribbean area appear they will be much better, even the euro has little if any windshear by the time the strong wave makes into the eastern Caribbean next week.

[Blown Away]

This area bears watching!

[ronjon]

This wave has model support for low pressure development from both the Euro and GFS and will be a fairly low latitude tracker. Neither model really strengthens it but we all know how challenging it is for intensity forecasts from the global models. Probably our next Investigation in a few days.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 120 Hours Low Pressure in East Atlantic.

126 Hours Low continues present.

138 Hours Low still there.

168 Hours No low,but system passes 40w.

204 Hours Wave moves wnw passing 50w.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS at 120 Hours Low Pressure in East Atlantic.

126 Hours

138 Hours

These models are for the circled area.

[RL3AO]

It will be interesting as these waves or if any develop as they march westward across the Atlantic into the eastern Caribbean, conditions in the eastern Caribbean area appear they will be much better, even the euro has little if any windshear by the time the strong wave makes into the eastern Caribbean next week.

Good point. Even the GFS shows that the shear in the Carribbean should drop some in the next week.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I like the PSU Tropical E-Wall for a quick and convenient 4 square for doing a quick look at the tropics.


GFS and its forecast of Cristobal early next week


On a semi-unrelated topic, just watched Bastardi's "Big Dog", where he thinks the current wave has some potential. He also believes Bertha, while staying safely away from the US, may pull the trough Eastward, letting a nice heat wave generating ridge to build into the Northeast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

168 Hours No low,but system passes 40w.

The PSU e-Wall, with 2 mb isobar spacing, shows a closed millibar around the potential Cristobal at hour 168.

[KWT]

Very interesting to see a few models are at least trying to do something with this wave, we shall see I can see the area right now does have some moderate convection and we have seen Bertha do something in a similar position but we will see.

[cycloneye]

The canadian model shows the weak low moving towards the Lesser Antilles and ending in Guadeloupe,Hey Gustywind,HUC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

The EURO is also on this.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8070912!!/

[Blown Away]

What's the chances of this area becoming an invest in the near future? Large area of convection w/ slight rotation??

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... n=atlantic

[HUC]

I saw that cycloneye...This is the strong wave San-Juan insist over in it's latest's analysis...

[ekal]

The 00z GFS continues to develop a nasty little cyclone east of the Islands next week. Stay tuned.