TC Bertha

[KWT]

Looking pretty good again Chacor, thats certanily a hurricane, about 18hrs ago you could argue that it was a strong TS but you can't make that arguement anymore I think, I think it looks about 70kts right now.

[hial2]

I notyice a WNW Turn as well and each degree it moves more to the west the more bermuda is in trouble. Also it has a cat eye right now, i wonder if it shall open up a bit more throughout the day.

FWIW, yesterday's BAMM models were forecasting a west (and even a s/w) movement..

[gatorcane]

She looks to have made a turn almost due W over the past hour or so. Probably just temporary though:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[cpdaman]

It has the illusion of a west turn doesn't it?

Re: the 11 a.m. update, it is now w/nw. If it gets beyond 60 I'll start to be concerned about the eastern seaboard.

most models predicted WNW for today , however if it gets beyond 60 and moving 300 degrees or less i will be slightly concerned. But i am thinking a turn around 60 but then possible stall.

i caught the 9 am tropical update and i heard the guy mention that he was talking to the head forecaster (girl) regarding the bahamas and bermuda and then the talk focused on the bermuda, but it was interesting and note

[Thunder44]

hmmmmm........ something is fishy,.... i see a longer wnw motion coming,. today

Go back a few frames and you see the trough over Northern US is already breaking down the ridge in by Bermuda already. It's forcing the ridge to build back further west towards Florida. The WNW motion still looks like for today alone.

[cpdaman]

isn't that the NE part of the ridge by bermuda that is being broken down by the trough?

[KWT]

Yep you can see its already weakening away, how long the ridge holds for will decide just how far west Bertha will get, the longer it can keep up a WNW track the greater the risk to Bermuda.

[gatorcane]

But its actually moving due W now at least based on the last two frames:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[cpdaman]

But its actually moving due W now at least based on the last two frames:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

you can't extrapolate a motion based on only two frames, it can be very misleading

i'm thinking this is heading pretty steady at 300 degrees which is WNW but almost NW.

[gatorcane]

there is a clear wobble due west at 270 or even just south of 270. But you are right, could be jsut a wobble so we can't say it is moving west yet. The next few frames will let us know for sure. I also appears to be slowing down alot.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[KWT]

Yeah the last few frames do *seem* to show a near due west movement, I remember Wxman57 saying yesterday we may see a bend back to the WNW with wobbles between 270-275 at times as well.

[drezee]

Not a true "fist" this time because you won't see intensification follow.

I am curious to why you would make that statement so soon after it happened. Being that I coined the term in 1995 with Hurricane Luis...I believe that it will intensify to at least 100 mph within 22 hours.

[Weatherfreak14]

I dont see too much strengthening in its future looks like there is some dry air around it to keep it down.

[gatorcane]

It doesn't appear that trough off the EC is making much progress yet:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[brunota2003]

Bertha and I see eye to eye this afternoon.

[KWT]

The dry air won't matter at all unless it gets into the core, as long as the system is able to produce convection as it clearly is then no reason why it won't strengthen slowly.

[tolakram]

Looks like shear is below 10kts.

The visible shows some shear to the north, I think, but this may be helping to vent the storm.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a solid hurricane now. I'd say about 80 kt.

[JonathanBelles]

The eye has returned!

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-jsl.html

Tops being launched off to the North? Anyway it looks to be slowly improving each frame.