TC Bertha

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, looking very impressive there. I think we may see a High end Cat 2 at 5pm adv or even back to a Cat 3( Very unlikely.)

[HurricaneHunter914]

Here she goes again. It appears that convection is wrapping around the eye. Maybe a Cat-2 hurricane by the 5 pm advisory.

[WmE]

Wow, looking very impressive there. I think we may see a High end Cat 2 at 5pm adv or even back to a Cat 3( Very unlikely.)

Now it's probably just a solid Cat 1. I'd go with 70-75kts right now.

[KWT]

I don't think its strengthening that quick;y right now though it does look increasingly good, probably will raise it upto 70-75kts though they may say this is conservative estimate. IMO this probably is more like 80kts but you never can tell, track looks like WNW.

[HurricaneHunter914]

It didn't even have an eye yesterday and the NHC called it an 80 mph cat-1 hurricane. W/ the eye, I'd say that this is a low end cat-2/high end cat-1.

[WmE]

It didn't even have an eye yesterday and the NHC called it an 80 mph cat-1 hurricane. W/ the eye, I'd say that this is a low end cat-2/high end cat-1.

Sometimes appearance and intensity don't match perfectly. As it was a Cat 3 hurricane the winds probably decreased slowlier than the organization.

[tolakram]

Clear eye, oh my.

[txwatcher91]

It is amazing what a difference a day can make. Yesterday almost everyone was calling for it to dissipate or weaknen to a minimal TS, now it is organizing rapidly and could reach Cat 3 today or tomorrow if this trend continues.

[cheezyWXguy]

It is amazing what a difference a day can make. Yesterday almost everyone was calling for it to dissipate or weaknen to a minimal TS, now it is organizing rapidly and could reach Cat 3 today or tomorrow if this trend continues.

Its amazing because it all happened in the last 3 hours. You can see the initial image of the ssd loop where theres not even a trace of an eye, and then sure enough now, the eye is clearing out. This is rapidly organizing and some good strengthening is likely.

[JonathanBelles]

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/o ... a_100.jpg#

Stunning images from NASA from aboard the ISS.

[Thunder44]

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/on_demand_video.html?param=http://mfile.akamai.com/18566/wmv/etouchsyst2.download.akamai.com/18355//wm.nasa-global/hurricane_bertha/VF08_0316.asx&_id=134620&_title=Hurricane%20Bertha&_tnimage=257930main_iss_bertha_100.jpg#

Stunning images from NASA from aboard the ISS.

That was from yesterday morning. They didn't catch it at it's peak.

[JonathanBelles]

yes I know.......

[KWT]

Looking increasingly impressive tolakram, that eye is clearing out pretty quickly again and given its small size we may well see some rapid strengthening occuring.

[ronjon]

Cool SAT loop:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=vis&domain=cna&res=4km&size=large&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=mkwc&satplat=goeseast&overlay=off

[hurricanefloyd5]

Is there any ships or bouys out there near the storms???????????????

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Bertha is currently getting ready to enter the warmest waters that she has been in so at this point really the only thing could stand a chance at keep her from going through another RIC is wind shear and but I am not sure what the wind shear values are in the area.

Water temps are around 28C where she is headed Monday water temps were 27C
Dry air shouldn't be a factor because Monday there was just as much if not more dry air then there is today.
Wind shear is really the only unknown at this point.

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2008 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 24:23:59 N Lon : 57:35:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 989.8mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 4.0 5.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -59.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[WmE]

Shear shouldn't be a problem for now. The shear on the northern side could enhance the outflow thus helping Bertha.

[Aric Dunn]

wobble wobble wobble

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

How do they get T3.8 from Bertha? Tropical Storms do not have eyes. Bertha is not under 65kts!