TC Bertha

[KWT]

Yeah 3.8 does seem a little on the low side, note the raw estimate is 5.6 which is probably too high. Still until that rises NHC are likely to hold at 65kts even though it looks stronger then that. Hope recon decides to fly into it this time round.

[tolakram]

Those reports are always using slightly out of date data and, in my opinion, really fail miserably when a storm is rapidly changing.

[KWT]

Also I note it seems to have wobbled NNW in the last hour, just like the first time it underwent RI.

Looking really impressive now as well!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Bertha's size is also increasing this afternoon. In the first frame shes just a small area of convection then by the last frame shes like more then doubled in size or at least it looks like she has.

[Thunder44]

The ADT estimates are under constraint limits at 0.5T/hour.

[RL3AO]

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/on_demand_video.html?param=http://mfile.akamai.com/18566/wmv/etouchsyst2.download.akamai.com/18355//wm.nasa-global/hurricane_bertha/VF08_0316.asx&_id=134620&_title=Hurricane%20Bertha&_tnimage=257930main_iss_bertha_100.jpg#

Stunning images from NASA from aboard the ISS.

Great image/video.

[cheezyWXguy]

Bertha's size is also increasing this afternoon. In the first frame shes just a small area of convection then by the last frame shes like more then doubled in size or at least it looks like she has.

Bertha also seems a lot more compact...its not that shes little, its that she doesnt have all these clouds extending away from the storm for hundreds of miles like it did the first time. I remember hearing with hurricane dennis that when the outer windfields weaken, the inner windfield gets stronger. That appears to be whats going on here

[RL3AO]

Bertha has jumped NNW the past few frames and is now north and east of the forecast point.

[Derek Ortt]

guys,

it makes almost no difference whether this is 20 miles north or south fo the forecast point.

It is a mere wobble

[HURAKAN]

Most likely again close or at Cat. 3.

[RL3AO]

Correction: When I said it wobbled NNW, I was wrong. It actually wobbled a few degrees east of north.

[drezee]

09/1745 UTC 24.6N 57.8W T5.0/5.0 BERTHA

5.0 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)

[HURAKAN]

Eye clearing up.

[TCmet]

That's two episodes of significant rapid intensification now. I think this will be high-end Cat. 2/possibly Cat. 3 at 5pm. This storm continues to impress.

09/1745 UTC 24.6N 57.8W T5.0/5.0 BERTHA

5.0 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)

[drezee]

Not a true "fist" this time because you won't see intensification follow.

I am curious to why you would make that statement so soon after it happened. Being that I coined the term in 1995 with Hurricane Luis...I believe that it will intensify to at least 100 mph within 22 hours.

indeed it has rapidly intensified

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2008 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 24:30:34 N Lon : 57:43:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 985.3mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 5.4 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -58.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

Cat 2 ,85 kts,974 mbs by ATCF:

AL, 02, 2008070918, , BEST, 0, 245N, 578W, 85, 974, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 15,

[weatherguru18]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2008 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 24:30:34 N Lon : 57:43:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 985.3mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 5.4 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -58.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Just curious...where is this info. found at?

[weatherguru18]

Cat 2 ,85 kts,974 mbs by ATCF:

AL, 02, 2008070918, , BEST, 0, 245N, 578W, 85, 974, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 15,

and this? Sorry, I just don't know.

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2008 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 24:30:34 N Lon : 57:43:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 985.3mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 5.4 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -58.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Just curious...where is this info. found at?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt02L.html