TC Bertha

[WmE]

Dose that mean BIG BERTHA is at the high end of cat.3 or low end of cat.3????

T5.0 = 90kts or a Cat 2

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Dose that mean BIG BERTHA is at the high end of cat.3 or low end of cat.3????

5.0 is 90kts 104mph so cat 2

[HURAKAN]

Intensity is difficult to forecast, but when you add an anomaly like Bertha, it becomes a real challenge.

[JonathanBelles]

Now calling for a Major Hurricane in 12hrs.

[tolakram]

Now calling for a Major Hurricane in 12hrs.

Who is, what is? Disclaimer?

[JonathanBelles]

Now calling for a Major Hurricane in 12hrs.

Who is, what is? Disclaimer?

The NHC.

[RattleMan]

Now calling for a Major Hurricane in 12hrs.

Who is, what is? Disclaimer?

000
WTNT42 KNHC 092032
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2008
...
INITIAL 09/2100Z 24.8N 58.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 25.6N 59.2W 100 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 26.8N 60.2W 100 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 61.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 29.1N 61.3W 95 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 31.0N 61.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 32.5N 61.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 35.5N 60.0W 75 KT

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Now calling for a Major Hurricane in 12hrs.

Who is, what is? Disclaimer?

Read advisory at the thread for those.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Bertha could again become a major hurricane.
yeah that is something else.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2008 Time : 194500 UTC
Lat : 24:51:24 N Lon : 57:57:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 969.8mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.0 5.6 5.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +7.0C Cloud Region Temp : -57.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[tolakram]

Ha, I missed the fact that the advisory came out. Sorry about that.

[gatorcane]

What is the possibility that Bertha can do a loop missing the second trough in 5 days? NHC's wording is carefully stated and I still see no explicit wording where NHC indicates Bertha "will recurve." I also notice the cone of uncertainty is very wide for the 3-5 day timeframe. If she moves right of the forecast tracks staying on the right-side of the cone would she not be less impacted by the possible 5 day trough and be able to resume a west movement once the ridge behind this trough builds in?

A SECOND
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST ON DAY 5 COULD
RESULT IN SOME NORTHWARD ACCELERATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2008

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BERTHA COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER RHOME

_________________

Probably Bertha it's already stronger than 105 mph.

[KWT]

Yep forecasted to become a major hurricane for the 2nd time in its exsitance which really would be a turn up for the books!

Still looking very good right now, its going to be interesting to see just where Bertha peaks this time round. Raw T numbers still at 5.6 with the 3hr average now upto 5.0 which is as we know 90kts.

As noted could be stronger then forecasted.

[JonathanBelles]

One could almost think that a hurricane watch could be issued at 5p or 11p tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

One could almost think that a hurricane watch could be issued at 5p or 11p tomorrow.

It's possible just as a precautionary measure. If the hurricane follows the current track Bermuda would be safe from the hazardous part of the storm.

[Ptarmigan]

Based on the latest satellite image of Bertha, it looks like it is better organized. It would not surprise me if it becomes a Category 3 again.

[Category 5]

CrazyC83 hit it on the head, it gained it's intensity back.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2008 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 24:52:35 N Lon : 58:04:36 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 965.8mb/ 94.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.2 5.5 5.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +6.4C Cloud Region Temp : -56.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************