TC Bertha

[Chacor]

Seems to have reached its secondary peak.

[jaxfladude]

Any chances that Bertha will be the hurricane story of the year(as much chance of Bertha hitting the CONUS) ....one can only hope.....

[george_r_1961]

Fact I do agree that the Maritime Provinces need to watch this very carefully. Especially Newfoundland.

Effects to New England should be limited to high surf.

[wxmann_91]

earlier... you would have far more false alarms... which leads to the "Keys Culture"

As todays people becomes more prepared, smarter and aware of their surroundings, and as the NHC becomes better at forecasting, I think that more people will understand the possibility of being a little off, and the NHC should allow for more warning. JMO.

People will never understand the possibility of being off. It's part of the field but the public demands it to be right. If it isn't, it causes inconveniences and annoyances and that gets people's nerves. It's the cry wolf syndrome.

[HURAKAN]

[weatherguru18]

Anybody else notice a pretty good wobble to the left or is it just me?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[Weatherfreak14]

Anybody else notice a pretty good wobble to the left or is it just me?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

I think it just the eye woobling not the movement.. But you could be right got to wiat for more new frames.

[HURAKAN]

Anybody else notice a pretty good wobble to the left or is it just me?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

It's generally moving NW. It wobbles north and west, but in general, the track is about NW.

[weatherguru18]

I know it's a wobble. I don't expect a trend here. Just curious if I was seeing correctly and it appears that I have. Keep in mind though that wobbles can be crutial in future placement of the center. A 25 or 50 mile jog either way could mean 150 mile difference in placement in a couple days. Being that it's a wobble to the left, Bermuda needs to be extra cautious. It's like shooting a gun. Small movement of the gun means 10's of feet down range.

A wobble to the right is probably what spared Houston during Hurricane Rita.

[HURAKAN]

[AJC3]

A wobble to the right is probably what spared Houston during Hurricane Rita.

Nah. Rita's track was gradually bending away from the Houston/Galveston area....much moreso than any trochoidal wobble would be responsible for.

[Stratosphere747]

A wobble to the right is probably what spared Houston during Hurricane Rita.

Negative....

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2008 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 25:14:47 N Lon : 58:44:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 961.7mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.6 4.6 4.6


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +4.6C Cloud Region Temp : -49.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

[brunota2003]

"Weakening Flag : ON"

Rut Ro Raggy! I think someone is about to fall apart again, if not slowly fading away already.

Edit:

It was also flagged for the potential of rapid dissipation.

"Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG"

[JonathanBelles]

I think if there is an upgrade to cat 3 it has to happen at the 11p.

[Derek Ortt]

that is being flagged for RD? A little surprising

[Chacor]

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

This is now right at the top of the forecast advisory and public advisory. I also notice they're now using the word "extent".

[Weatherfreak14]

It remains A CAT 2....

[Chacor]

"Weakening Flag : ON"

Rut Ro Raggy! I think someone is about to fall apart again, if not slowly fading away already.

Any fall in the CI number will cause the weakening flag to trigger. It's not a good judge.

Edit:

It was also flagged for the potential of rapid dissipation.

"Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG"

Uhm, shouldn't that say "ON" if it was on, rather than "FLAG"?