Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
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- Hurricanewatcher2007
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
If that were to happen should people in Maine start preparing just in case the ridge doesn't break down as much as that shows and it head for Maine instead?
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:they should monitor this
for thsi to hit Maine, you will actually need a very strong trough
wait im confused...wouldnt a strong trough pick it up quickly and put it out to see? I wouldnt think you would need a stronger trough to pull it west. If there was no trough at all, this would be knocking on the door of the east coast.
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Re: Re:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:they should monitor this
for thsi to hit Maine, you will actually need a very strong trough
wait im confused...wouldnt a strong trough pick it up quickly and put it out to see? I wouldnt think you would need a stronger trough to pull it west. If there was no trough at all, this would be knocking on the door of the east coast.
I think Derek means a strong "negatively tilted" trough which would funnel the storm due N or N-NW.
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- HURAKAN
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511
WHXX04 KWBC 092332
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 9
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 24.5 57.8 305./ 9.9
6 25.0 58.5 309./ 8.3
12 25.6 59.4 302./ 9.5
18 26.1 60.0 312./ 7.6
24 26.8 60.6 315./ 8.5
30 27.2 61.2 304./ 7.1
36 27.7 61.5 327./ 5.7
42 28.3 61.9 330./ 7.2
48 28.9 62.3 325./ 7.0
54 29.6 62.5 350./ 6.6
60 30.1 62.6 350./ 5.7
66 30.8 62.5 6./ 6.4
72 31.4 62.2 28./ 7.1
78 32.0 61.7 41./ 7.1
84 32.5 61.2 39./ 6.2
90 33.1 60.8 34./ 7.2
96 33.7 60.2 45./ 7.5
102 34.4 59.7 38./ 8.6
108 35.1 59.4 22./ 7.0
114 35.9 59.0 24./ 8.9
120 36.9 58.8 15./10.0
126 38.0 58.5 14./10.7
WHXX04 KWBC 092332
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 9
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 24.5 57.8 305./ 9.9
6 25.0 58.5 309./ 8.3
12 25.6 59.4 302./ 9.5
18 26.1 60.0 312./ 7.6
24 26.8 60.6 315./ 8.5
30 27.2 61.2 304./ 7.1
36 27.7 61.5 327./ 5.7
42 28.3 61.9 330./ 7.2
48 28.9 62.3 325./ 7.0
54 29.6 62.5 350./ 6.6
60 30.1 62.6 350./ 5.7
66 30.8 62.5 6./ 6.4
72 31.4 62.2 28./ 7.1
78 32.0 61.7 41./ 7.1
84 32.5 61.2 39./ 6.2
90 33.1 60.8 34./ 7.2
96 33.7 60.2 45./ 7.5
102 34.4 59.7 38./ 8.6
108 35.1 59.4 22./ 7.0
114 35.9 59.0 24./ 8.9
120 36.9 58.8 15./10.0
126 38.0 58.5 14./10.7
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
The BAMS reach 66w,that is west of Bermuda!.
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0103 UTC THU JUL 10 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080710 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080710 0000 080710 1200 080711 0000 080711 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.2N 58.6W 26.3N 60.3W 27.3N 61.9W 28.2N 63.2W
BAMD 25.2N 58.6W 26.4N 60.1W 27.7N 61.4W 28.9N 62.7W
BAMM 25.2N 58.6W 26.1N 60.3W 27.0N 61.7W 27.9N 62.9W
LBAR 25.2N 58.6W 26.6N 59.6W 27.8N 60.4W 29.0N 61.0W
SHIP 90KTS 92KTS 90KTS 87KTS
DSHP 90KTS 92KTS 90KTS 87KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080712 0000 080713 0000 080714 0000 080715 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 63.8W 29.8N 64.7W 29.9N 66.1W 30.6N 66.9W
BAMD 30.2N 63.4W 32.2N 63.7W 33.1N 65.0W 35.5N 66.3W
BAMM 28.9N 63.6W 29.9N 64.2W 30.2N 65.4W 31.6N 66.5W
LBAR 29.8N 61.3W 31.0N 60.9W 32.0N 61.3W 34.7N 60.7W
SHIP 84KTS 72KTS 59KTS 51KTS
DSHP 84KTS 72KTS 59KTS 51KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.2N LONCUR = 58.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 57.0W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.8N LONM24 = 55.2W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90NM
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0103 UTC THU JUL 10 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080710 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080710 0000 080710 1200 080711 0000 080711 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.2N 58.6W 26.3N 60.3W 27.3N 61.9W 28.2N 63.2W
BAMD 25.2N 58.6W 26.4N 60.1W 27.7N 61.4W 28.9N 62.7W
BAMM 25.2N 58.6W 26.1N 60.3W 27.0N 61.7W 27.9N 62.9W
LBAR 25.2N 58.6W 26.6N 59.6W 27.8N 60.4W 29.0N 61.0W
SHIP 90KTS 92KTS 90KTS 87KTS
DSHP 90KTS 92KTS 90KTS 87KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080712 0000 080713 0000 080714 0000 080715 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 63.8W 29.8N 64.7W 29.9N 66.1W 30.6N 66.9W
BAMD 30.2N 63.4W 32.2N 63.7W 33.1N 65.0W 35.5N 66.3W
BAMM 28.9N 63.6W 29.9N 64.2W 30.2N 65.4W 31.6N 66.5W
LBAR 29.8N 61.3W 31.0N 60.9W 32.0N 61.3W 34.7N 60.7W
SHIP 84KTS 72KTS 59KTS 51KTS
DSHP 84KTS 72KTS 59KTS 51KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.2N LONCUR = 58.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 57.0W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.8N LONM24 = 55.2W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
The 00:00 UTC SHIP Forecast: Shear will be relativly low until 48 hours.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* BERTHA AL022008 07/10/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 92 91 90 87 84 79 72 65 59 54 51
V (KT) LAND 90 93 92 91 90 87 84 79 72 65 59 54 51
V (KT) LGE mod 90 95 96 93 90 85 80 75 70 64 58 54 50
SHEAR (KTS) 12 16 14 9 7 14 14 22 27 27 30 31 30
SHEAR DIR 189 214 228 234 204 234 209 253 238 266 270 288 293
SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.1 24.3
POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 133 134 134 133 129 125 119 115 111 105 100
ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 115 116 115 113 108 104 99 96 94 90 86
200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -55.4 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1
TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 41 43 45 43 40 39 37 40 42 47 47 49 42
GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 17 18 19 20 20 20 19
850 MB ENV VOR -53 -70 -67 -73 -90 -102 -95 -67 -46 -30 -37 -24 -28
200 MB DIV 9 1 -11 0 -31 5 8 38 26 10 17 8 -17
LAND (KM) 1060 1067 1081 1109 1142 1234 1332 1433 1379 1297 1232 1089 902
LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.8 26.3 26.9 27.5 28.7 29.7 30.7 31.5 32.3 33.1 34.6 36.7
LONG(DEG W) 58.6 59.2 59.7 60.2 60.6 61.2 61.3 61.4 61.5 61.3 60.6 60.2 59.7
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 6 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 22 24 24 25 24 18 11 7 4 2 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -25. -31. -34. -38. -41.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -37.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -18. -25. -31. -36. -39.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/10/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/10/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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- canetracker
- S2K Supporter
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Most all the 18z runs,that are in the Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields link below, seem to come very close to or brushing Bermuda. It will be very interesting to see how this evolves.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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MAJOR left shift for NCEP global
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
now very near Bermuda and a LANDFALL in Nova Scotia
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
now very near Bermuda and a LANDFALL in Nova Scotia
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Wow. 6z runs will be interesting. So will the next track.
Dr. Masters posted this earlier today (9am)
The track forecast
Bertha is slowing down and turning northward as it "feels" the approach of a trough of low pressure to the north. All of the computer model turn Bertha northwards east of Bermuda, and it currently appears that the island will feel only peripheral effects of Bertha. However, the trough of low pressure turning Bertha to the north will not be strong enough to fully drag the storm into the far North Atlantic, so Bertha will wander close to Bermuda early next week while it waits for another trough of low pressure to finish the job. It is very unlikely Bertha will threaten the U.S., but it could eventually affect the Maritime Provinces of Canada.
Dr. Masters posted this earlier today (9am)
The track forecast
Bertha is slowing down and turning northward as it "feels" the approach of a trough of low pressure to the north. All of the computer model turn Bertha northwards east of Bermuda, and it currently appears that the island will feel only peripheral effects of Bertha. However, the trough of low pressure turning Bertha to the north will not be strong enough to fully drag the storm into the far North Atlantic, so Bertha will wander close to Bermuda early next week while it waits for another trough of low pressure to finish the job. It is very unlikely Bertha will threaten the U.S., but it could eventually affect the Maritime Provinces of Canada.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Well if the bamm is correct, then bertha would get pretty close to maine...but i doubt it, since the BAMs are unreliable at such a location
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
I was just looking at the local stuff and noticed this, for what it worth.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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- Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
It would be something if this thing made a landfall in maine. Now how strong would it be is another question.,
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
tolakram wrote:I'd like to see one of those spaghetti model plots.
Note the XTRP model threatens NYC with a catastrophe!
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 101317
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1317 UTC THU JUL 10 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080710 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080710 1200 080711 0000 080711 1200 080712 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.3N 59.8W 27.2N 61.1W 28.0N 62.1W 28.6N 62.5W
BAMD 26.3N 59.8W 27.6N 61.0W 28.7N 62.2W 29.8N 63.1W
BAMM 26.3N 59.8W 27.3N 61.0W 28.2N 62.1W 29.1N 62.7W
LBAR 26.3N 59.8W 27.6N 60.5W 28.4N 60.9W 29.5N 61.1W
SHIP 80KTS 78KTS 77KTS 76KTS
DSHP 80KTS 78KTS 77KTS 76KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080712 1200 080713 1200 080714 1200 080715 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 62.5W 29.3N 62.2W 31.0N 62.5W 34.7N 61.0W
BAMD 31.0N 63.6W 32.7N 64.6W 36.2N 66.6W 43.6N 65.8W
BAMM 29.9N 62.9W 30.7N 63.3W 32.5N 64.4W 36.1N 63.9W
LBAR 30.5N 61.6W 31.5N 61.2W 33.3N 61.3W 36.4N 60.5W
SHIP 74KTS 67KTS 64KTS 61KTS
DSHP 74KTS 67KTS 64KTS 61KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.3N LONCUR = 59.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 58.6W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 23.8N LONM24 = 57.0W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 977MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90NM
$$
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1317 UTC THU JUL 10 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080710 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080710 1200 080711 0000 080711 1200 080712 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.3N 59.8W 27.2N 61.1W 28.0N 62.1W 28.6N 62.5W
BAMD 26.3N 59.8W 27.6N 61.0W 28.7N 62.2W 29.8N 63.1W
BAMM 26.3N 59.8W 27.3N 61.0W 28.2N 62.1W 29.1N 62.7W
LBAR 26.3N 59.8W 27.6N 60.5W 28.4N 60.9W 29.5N 61.1W
SHIP 80KTS 78KTS 77KTS 76KTS
DSHP 80KTS 78KTS 77KTS 76KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080712 1200 080713 1200 080714 1200 080715 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 62.5W 29.3N 62.2W 31.0N 62.5W 34.7N 61.0W
BAMD 31.0N 63.6W 32.7N 64.6W 36.2N 66.6W 43.6N 65.8W
BAMM 29.9N 62.9W 30.7N 63.3W 32.5N 64.4W 36.1N 63.9W
LBAR 30.5N 61.6W 31.5N 61.2W 33.3N 61.3W 36.4N 60.5W
SHIP 74KTS 67KTS 64KTS 61KTS
DSHP 74KTS 67KTS 64KTS 61KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.3N LONCUR = 59.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 58.6W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 23.8N LONM24 = 57.0W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 977MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90NM
$$
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
The 12:00 UTC SHIP Forecast. Interesting that this update from SHIP shows much less shear thru 120 hours.That may be related to what Derek has said,and that is baroclinic factor.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* BERTHA AL022008 07/10/08 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 78 78 77 76 74 70 67 65 64 62 61
V (KT) LAND 80 78 78 78 77 76 74 70 67 65 64 62 61
V (KT) LGE mod 80 76 74 73 73 72 70 68 66 63 61 60 59
SHEAR (KTS) 12 4 5 12 10 13 10 12 7 5 2 4 15
SHEAR DIR 213 228 181 199 193 167 192 185 200 161 265 344 5
SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.0 24.3
POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 134 134 133 130 127 124 121 116 112 105 101
ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 115 114 113 109 105 102 100 97 94 91 87
200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.3 -54.2 -53.2 -53.5 -52.7 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 6
700-500 MB RH 42 43 40 43 43 38 41 40 45 41 44 42 43
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 21 21 21
850 MB ENV VOR -61 -63 -79 -90 -87 -84 -66 -49 -54 -77 -92 -77 -20
200 MB DIV -2 -1 -20 -2 1 14 36 14 5 7 -9 31 29
LAND (KM) 1075 1094 1118 1155 1195 1277 1343 1396 1382 1320 1221 1053 837
LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.8 27.3 27.9 28.4 29.4 30.0 30.5 31.1 31.9 32.9 34.6 37.0
LONG(DEG W) 59.8 60.3 60.7 61.1 61.4 62.0 61.9 61.9 62.0 62.0 61.8 61.3 60.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 5 7 10 12
HEAT CONTENT 24 25 25 23 20 10 8 7 5 3 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -29. -31.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/10/08 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/10/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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