TC Bertha

KWT · #3421 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 5:43 am

Looks like the southern eyewall was nearly open according to Hurakan's image and the eye has become clouded over once again so I do think its weakening a little bit right now, though not sure why right now as there doesn't seem to be another outer eyewall though there is some convection that could develop into a outer eyewall but we will have to watch and see. Structure isn't bad still which is a good thing.

Anyway can also see a westerly wobble has occure din the last couple of hours.

#3422 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:18 am

Looks very nice this morning.

KWT · #3423 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:32 am

The eye is cloud filled still but it doesn't look bad right now, still got a very good structure to it and if anything the eye has become a little bit better defined again recently.
Is it just me or is the northern quadrant being flattened?

Gustywind · #3424 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:56 am

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 101015 CCA
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST THU JUL 10 2008

BASED ON LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BERTHA WAS
NOW ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHEAST OF OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...
So very good news for the Carib Islands right now we're definitely out of any threads, hope that for Bermuda too... in spite of the suspicious path for them, keep the faith Bermudians

!

#3425 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:06 am

Winds could be downgraded to 90-100 mph in the next advisory. Lets see if today Bertha gives us another surprise.

#3426 Postby **drezee** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:16 am

we should get our left turn today...

#3427 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:19 am

drezee wrote:we should get our left turn today...

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

If you look at the loop, in the last few images, the track of Bertha seems to have turned more to the west. Not just a wooble.

KWT · #3428 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:23 am

Yep Hurakan there certainly does seem to be motion more like 280-285 over the last 3hrs or so which is bad news obviously for Bermuda becuase every bit it goes further west the greater the chances of imapct there even if there is only a breif movement.

Anyone got word on whether recon is still a go for tomorrow?

#3429 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:27 am

KWT wrote:Anyone got word on whether recon is still a go for tomorrow?

That will be decided in a few hours from now. If the storm continues to move closer to Bermuda, RECON is very possible.

KWT · #3430 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:31 am

Yeah fair enough Hurakan I think given there is a W/WNW movement right now and Bermuda is still in the cone they may well go for it, I hope they do anyway to see Bertha's strength even if it may be weaker by then.

Thunder44 · #3431 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:44 am

KWT wrote:The eye is cloud filled still but it doesn't look bad right now, still got a very good structure to it and if anything the eye has become a little bit better defined again recently.
Is it just me or is the northern quadrant being flattened?

Looking at this water vapor loop, it looks like it's being sheared from the SE, by the ULL to the west of it. It's also entraining alot more dry air now. You the see area of subsidence coming around the south side of the storm? It causing the convection along it's outer core, to appear broken up and weaker on infrared imagery. I don't think Bertha will be strengthening today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Chacor · #3432 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:51 am

Very ragged.

Down to 80 kts in ATCF.

#3433 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:51 am

Down to 80 kts,977 mbs per ATCF:

AL, 02, 2008071012, , BEST, 0, 263N, 598W, 80, 977, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 15, 1014, 200, 10, 0, 0,

#3434 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:58 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've got to do at least one completely non scientific forecast.

When Bertha heads mostly west it strengthens, therefor I'm forecasting a little strengthening today but it will also begin to head more north later today which will result in more weakening. If this thing does come near Bermuda I'm hoping for nothing more than a tropical storm.

If that doesn't work then maybe the magic 8 ball will.

#3435 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:14 am

Derek Ortt · #3436 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:16 am

the weakening may have been temporary

kpost · #3437 Postby **kpost** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:16 am

the NWS has issued warning for East central Florida (i used my zip of 32903)for rip currents and swell. Hope it misses Bremuda and anyone else.
the surfers will be happy with this, swimmers may not.

"...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOY DATA INDICATE THE LEADING SWELLS FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE BERTHA HAVE ENTERED THE COASTAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH INITIALLY QUITE SMALL...THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE A
MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM
ALONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY. STORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE EAST SWELLS GENERATED BY DISTANT HURRICANE
BERTHA...ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE APPARENT FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY...AND COULD MAKE NAVIGATING
INLETS MORE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT."

KWT · #3438 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:46 am

Unless Bertha starts to take a more northerly track in the next 3-5hrs its going to miss the forecast point to the south, motion still looks like being to the WNW which isn't great news for Bermuda depsite nearly all models progging the system to being going NNW by now.

Shape still looks pretty good despite from the lack of any real deep convection and also cloud filled eye.

#3439 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:00 am

Eye clearing out again.

KWT · #3440 Postby **KWT** » Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:11 am

Yeah the eye does look a little better now though its still pretty clouded over. Its still got a good shape though, esp the core of the system.
Its also still the case that the northern part of the hurricane is flattened out towards the west which is probably a sign that backs up the idea that the system is being steered off to the WNW rather then the NNW that some models were progging to be in place right now, though it does bend more to the north further west so I'd have thought a NW/NNW turn probably isn't that far away.

I think at the very least this is going to get close enough to give tropical storm force winds to Bermuda.

TC Bertha

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