TC Bertha

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yeah the eye does look a little better now though its still pretty clouded over. Its still got a good shape though, esp the core of the system.
Its also still the case that the northern part of the hurricane is flattened out towards the west which is probably a sign that backs up the idea that the system is being steered off to the WNW rather then the NNW that some models were progging to be in place right now, though it does bend more to the north further west so I'd have thought a NW/NNW turn probably isn't that far away.

I think at the very least this is going to get close enough to give tropical storm force winds to Bermuda.

Yeah, that reminds me of something some met or another said on TV, the clouds tend to "point" in the direction the storm is being steered, and right now, it is being steered too close for comfort to Bermuda.

I drank a lot and rode around on a moped on my high school Spring Break to Bermuda. Not a good combination, potentially. Back when I was young and foolish.

[deltadog03]

I think that NHC has to move there track atleast a little left (west) at 11am. Looking over the WV, it appears that there is an ULL to her west helping to ventilate bertha. Also, the ridge is still there and from the WV looks to not be leaving very quickly. You can clearly see the trof on the east coast of the US, but if you animate that pic, you can also see its not having very good luck on pushing the ridge out yet.

[cycloneye]

Any met here thinks that Bermuda gets a Tropical Storm Watch or Hurricane Watch later today?

[KWT]

Agreed Deltadog its coming in south of the forecasted point and unless it picks up shortly its got a reasonable chance of coming in south of the point after that.

The problem is the models do all appear to be a little to far right as well in the track, they had this crossing 27N pretty much on 60W, whilst its not much Bertha is to the south of that and for Bermuda that may make the difference between getting minimal TS gusts and getting gusts close to hurricane strength so we need to keep a close eye on it to see whether it does start to turn to the NW/NNW soon like forecasted.

[deltadog03]

Luis, I would think maybe tonight either at 5pm or especially 11pm. Cane watch

[Derek Ortt]

no... too soon

tomorrow morning at the earliest

[srainhoutx]

no... too soon

tomorrow morning at the earliest

Agree. Another 24 hours to see how things develope today. Keeping on eye on that TUTT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

[KWT]

Hmmm NHC states this is moving at 315 degrees though I think it may be a little more westerly then that but never the less unless it jumps northwards it will miss the forecast point from earlier this morning to the south.

Still the flattening on the northern side seems to have stopped so I think its going to start to pick up some greater lattiude from now on.

[cheezyWXguy]

It almost looks like Bertha is recreating her structure. lastnight she was more N-S oriented, with one band to the north, and now, she looks more W-E oriented, with good outflow in all directions and a band wrapping around her entire cdo. I would expect some strengthening later today.

[deltadog03]

no... too soon

tomorrow morning at the earliest

You think not till tomorrow at 11a?

[KWT]

Well Ts winds extends 140 miles out and Bermuda is still a good 480 odd miles away according to the NHC so. So based on that given its moving at 9mph a TS watch for Bermuda is quite possible pretty soon, probably today, as for a hurricane watch thats probably a little while away yet.

[Thunder44]

no... too soon

tomorrow morning at the earliest

You think not till tomorrow at 11a?

I agree with Derek. It's still too early for watches. And they may just need a TS Watch.

[deltadog03]

Ya, yall are right...I guess the watch (what kind) would depend on what she does today.

[Chacor]

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF BERTHA HAS BECOME
SOMEWHAT RAGGED THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS IN THE
EYEWALL HAVE WARMED. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB DECREASING TO 77 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS.

[cycloneye]

From the 11 AM Advisory Discussion:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CONUNDRUM

That is what forecaster Beven says in terms of the intensity forecast for Bertha.

[KWT]

Convection still becoming progressivly more and more shallow though the structure still is fairly good so I don't think its going to carry on weakening for too long.

[cheezyWXguy]

Convection still becoming progressivly more and more shallow though the structure still is fairly good so I don't think its going to carry on weakening for too long.

Yeah, convection looks to be slightly deeper in the eastern half of the storm, and the eye is clearing out again, all bertha needs to be strengthening again is some dark oranges to surround the eye.

Btw, Bertha seems to on a surprisingly west motion as of the second half of the ssd loop...does anybody think that this will eventually make it to bermuda? And canada is looks more like a possibility for landfall...

[TCmet]

The definition of a TS/Hurricane watch is that conditions are *possible* within 36 hours. Right now the envelope of TS winds are 300+mi away, and with Bertha exhibiting a slowing forward speed (8mph) that would put the time right about 36hrs.

That said, there are still significant intensity/track uncertainties - and I'm sure NHC doesn't want to issue an unnecessary watch.

no... too soon

tomorrow morning at the earliest

You think not till tomorrow at 11a?

I agree with Derek. It's still too early for watches. And they may just need a TS Watch.

[Scorpion]

I have never seen a hurricane fluctuate as much as Bertha

[KWT]

I've just been thinking this has got to be one of the longest tracking July storms in history surely given it formed way back near the Cape Verde Islands and its now near Bermuda?