TC Bertha

[cycloneye]

Beautiful structure right now and eye clearing up.

[KWT]

Yep it has got a good strcture and indeed the eye is clearing out. Still there does seem to be some drier air outside the eyewall which is interesting.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, after 80kts seemed to generous about 20 minutes ago, they appear to be getting a bit conservative now...on latest RAMSDIS image, the eye is completely circular, much like what we saw yesterday afternoon, and convection is beginning to wrap around from the east. This is weirdest hurricane Ive ever seen

[fci]

Quite a change from last night when there appeared to be little convection on the south and west sides of the eye and now it is quite a bit more symmetrical.

Oh, always love seeing someone use the word "conundrum"!!

[cycloneye]

That is why forecaster Beven says the intensity forecast is a CONUNDRUM.

[CourierPR]

I'll use a boxing match analogy: "She's down! I don't think she'll get up! She's up!!!

[JonathanBelles]

I just woke up expecting Bertha to be eroded still, and yet somebody did CPR over night! Its odd that Boris did the same thing.

[Weatherfreak14]

It seems now its taking more of a turn norrthward now. I think this may be the intitial turn.

[cpdaman]

for the last day it appears to me to be spinning/whipping around itself creating the illusion of a west turn then a north turn ...west ...north etc.

any surfers out there nice long period swell to hit the florida coast from fort pierce north this afternoon

[cheezyWXguy]

It seems now its taking more of a turn norrthward now. I think this may be the intitial turn.

Actually, until about an hour ago, the eye was slightly displaced to the south of the LLC..however, it has wound back around to the center and is again well stacked and I do not think that the motion is yet straight north. It should be a few days yet before we see a constant heading of that.

[cpdaman]

is the stalled ULL to her west forecast to move ? she appears to be getting really close

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

i think she's about to hit the brakes (speed wise)

[HURAKAN]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I think we might be seeing some trochoidal wobbles while she looks to be strengthening. Her eye is about to head a little west again as the averaged movement appears to be approaching NW.

[HURAKAN]

Every day Bertha puts up a different face.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is not every day you see 360 degree banding like that. Also the eye appears to be clearly back up, I would say it is back to 90 knots again. There is a small chance of going to major.

[cpdaman]

I think we might be seeing some trochoidal wobbles while she looks to be strengthening. Her eye is about to head a little west again as the averaged movement appears to be approaching NW.

1545 visible confirms this good call. kind of what i was saying it is pin wheeling around itself creating west and then north wobbles yet moving steady NW. (for now)

[Sanibel]

I don't think these are trochoidal wobbles. I think they are the system bumping around in the margin between the Highs as it works north in recurve and into the weakness.

You'll see true trochoidal wobbles in a strengthening category 4 or 5 storm running in a straight line where the track is like pigtail loops.

[cpdaman]

I don't think these are trochoidal wobbles. I think they are the system bumping around in the margin between the Highs as it works north in recurve and into the weakness.

You'll see true trochoidal wobbles in a strengthening category 4 or 5 storm running in a straight line where the track is like pigtail loops.

but it's moving steady NW not 'north into recurve' recurve is not supposed to happen for a few days

[ronjon]

Definitely going to need RECON tomorrow and maybe the Gulfstream IV doing some upper air sampling. Latest 12Z GFS is a horrible scenario for Bermuda if it pans out. I know the GFDL and HWRF are showing more of an eastward track but the GFS is a pretty reliable model. I know NHC is concerned about the ridge building north of Bermuda whch may lead to a NW movement and possible stall.

[HURAKAN]