EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida
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- cycloneye
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EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida
Here we go with 98E south of El Salvador.
BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep982008.invest
FSTDA
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040
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0000
200807101254
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2008, DB, O, 2008071012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982008
EP, 98, 2008071012, , BEST, 0, 80N, 905W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep982008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807101254
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2008, DB, O, 2008071012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982008
EP, 98, 2008071012, , BEST, 0, 80N, 905W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139719
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC
WHXX01 KMIA 101331
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1331 UTC THU JUL 10 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982008) 20080710 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080710 1200 080711 0000 080711 1200 080712 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.0N 90.5W 8.7N 92.5W 9.4N 94.6W 10.4N 96.8W
BAMD 8.0N 90.5W 8.5N 92.6W 8.9N 95.1W 9.5N 97.7W
BAMM 8.0N 90.5W 8.7N 92.6W 9.4N 94.9W 10.4N 97.4W
LBAR 8.0N 90.5W 8.6N 92.7W 9.9N 95.3W 11.4N 98.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080712 1200 080713 1200 080714 1200 080715 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 99.1W 13.4N 102.1W 14.7N 104.8W 15.8N 107.0W
BAMD 9.9N 100.2W 11.0N 104.7W 12.1N 108.0W 13.3N 111.4W
BAMM 11.3N 100.0W 13.2N 104.0W 14.8N 107.4W 16.4N 110.8W
LBAR 12.8N 101.7W 15.8N 108.3W 16.2N 115.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 57KTS 57KTS 60KTS
DSHP 53KTS 57KTS 57KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 90.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 88.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 86.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1331 UTC THU JUL 10 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982008) 20080710 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080710 1200 080711 0000 080711 1200 080712 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.0N 90.5W 8.7N 92.5W 9.4N 94.6W 10.4N 96.8W
BAMD 8.0N 90.5W 8.5N 92.6W 8.9N 95.1W 9.5N 97.7W
BAMM 8.0N 90.5W 8.7N 92.6W 9.4N 94.9W 10.4N 97.4W
LBAR 8.0N 90.5W 8.6N 92.7W 9.9N 95.3W 11.4N 98.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080712 1200 080713 1200 080714 1200 080715 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 99.1W 13.4N 102.1W 14.7N 104.8W 15.8N 107.0W
BAMD 9.9N 100.2W 11.0N 104.7W 12.1N 108.0W 13.3N 111.4W
BAMM 11.3N 100.0W 13.2N 104.0W 14.8N 107.4W 16.4N 110.8W
LBAR 12.8N 101.7W 15.8N 108.3W 16.2N 115.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 57KTS 57KTS 60KTS
DSHP 53KTS 57KTS 57KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 90.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 88.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 86.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
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TCFA. Pretty quick.
WTPN21 PHNC 101430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
220 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.9N 89.9W TO 9.8N 97.9W WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
101400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
90.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N 90.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 755 NM SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. A 100747Z AMSR-E 36V/H DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. OVERALL, THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE
TO THE RAPIDLY IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE 36 GHZ
SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 111430Z.//
WTPN21 PHNC 101430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
220 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.9N 89.9W TO 9.8N 97.9W WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
101400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
90.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N 90.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 755 NM SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. A 100747Z AMSR-E 36V/H DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. OVERALL, THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE
TO THE RAPIDLY IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE 36 GHZ
SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 111430Z.//
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- DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
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- cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued
I havent seen a TCFA issued two hours after a invest has been up at NRL but that yes is weird.
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-
- Category 3
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- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
Re:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:uggh..Cant wait to watch this one die a boring death..LOL
Hope you're in a hurricane-prone area when you say that, so you can enjoy the skyrocketing insurance rates, gas shortages, etc. That's before a storm even comes your way.
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- Matt-hurricanewatcher
- Category 5
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- Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
- Location: Portland,OR
- Contact:
Re: Re:
HurricaneRobert wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:uggh..Cant wait to watch this one die a boring death..LOL
Hope you're in a hurricane-prone area when you say that, so you can enjoy the skyrocketing insurance rates, gas shortages, etc. That's before a storm even comes your way.
That better be a joke? Because this is the eastern pacific in this is not a threat to land.
Also as far as I'm concerned your more likely to be hit by a hurricane in a hurricane prone area then to get flooded on a major river in the midwest. So I'm not going to say any more.
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-
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
Re: Re:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:That better be a joke? Because this is the eastern pacific in this is not a threat to land.
Also as far as I'm concerned your more likely to be hit by a hurricane in a hurricane prone area then to get flooded on a major river in the midwest. So I'm not going to say any more.
You don't know what he was talking about. It's not the first time he's said something like this.
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- cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued
Ok guys lets go back to discuss all about invest 98E.
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Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP982008 07/10/08 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 53 57 57 57 57 59 60
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 53 57 57 57 57 59 60
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 32 33 34 35 36 36
SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 12 10 14 19 20 21 22 23 19 20 14
SHEAR DIR 72 50 40 34 23 12 41 49 63 55 56 63 92
SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.4 26.9
POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 148 149 156 156 154 151 147 142 138 132
200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -53.9 -54.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 8 8 10 9 9 8
700-500 MB RH 85 82 81 84 83 83 82 79 78 69 71 60 60
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 46 40 45 46 48 35 33 43 41 27 16 17 9
200 MB DIV 13 8 24 31 36 53 64 74 25 30 3 1 -4
LAND (KM) 560 599 603 611 629 602 565 549 548 539 566 606 694
LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.4 10.4 11.3 12.4 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.6 16.4
LONG(DEG W) 90.5 91.6 92.6 93.8 94.9 97.4 100.0 102.2 104.0 105.7 107.4 109.1 110.8
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 11 10 9 9 9 9
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 32. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 28. 32. 32. 32. 32. 34. 35.
** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP982008 INVEST 07/10/08 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982008 INVEST 07/10/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
RI index is pretty high.
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- cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued
445
ABPZ20 KNHC 101723
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
POORLY-ORGANIZED SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
A SECOND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
RL3AO,what is the scale for this TWO.
ABPZ20 KNHC 101723
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
POORLY-ORGANIZED SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
A SECOND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
RL3AO,what is the scale for this TWO.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139719
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: INVEST 98E in EPAC
WHXX01 KMIA 101910
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1910 UTC THU JUL 10 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982008) 20080710 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080710 1800 080711 0600 080711 1800 080712 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.8N 90.7W 8.6N 92.7W 9.6N 94.8W 10.6N 96.9W
BAMD 7.8N 90.7W 8.3N 93.0W 9.0N 95.5W 9.7N 98.1W
BAMM 7.8N 90.7W 8.6N 92.8W 9.5N 95.2W 10.5N 97.7W
LBAR 7.8N 90.7W 8.4N 92.6W 9.7N 95.1W 11.1N 98.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080712 1800 080713 1800 080714 1800 080715 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 98.7W 12.6N 100.9W 12.8N 103.1W 12.2N 105.4W
BAMD 10.3N 100.6W 11.0N 104.8W 11.4N 107.7W 11.6N 110.7W
BAMM 11.4N 100.0W 12.6N 103.4W 13.3N 106.1W 13.5N 109.0W
LBAR 12.3N 101.4W 14.9N 107.4W 18.0N 112.6W 17.4N 116.0W
SHIP 44KTS 49KTS 54KTS 58KTS
DSHP 44KTS 49KTS 54KTS 58KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.8N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 7.8N LONM12 = 89.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 7.8N LONM24 = 87.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1910 UTC THU JUL 10 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982008) 20080710 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080710 1800 080711 0600 080711 1800 080712 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.8N 90.7W 8.6N 92.7W 9.6N 94.8W 10.6N 96.9W
BAMD 7.8N 90.7W 8.3N 93.0W 9.0N 95.5W 9.7N 98.1W
BAMM 7.8N 90.7W 8.6N 92.8W 9.5N 95.2W 10.5N 97.7W
LBAR 7.8N 90.7W 8.4N 92.6W 9.7N 95.1W 11.1N 98.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080712 1800 080713 1800 080714 1800 080715 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 98.7W 12.6N 100.9W 12.8N 103.1W 12.2N 105.4W
BAMD 10.3N 100.6W 11.0N 104.8W 11.4N 107.7W 11.6N 110.7W
BAMM 11.4N 100.0W 12.6N 103.4W 13.3N 106.1W 13.5N 109.0W
LBAR 12.3N 101.4W 14.9N 107.4W 18.0N 112.6W 17.4N 116.0W
SHIP 44KTS 49KTS 54KTS 58KTS
DSHP 44KTS 49KTS 54KTS 58KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.8N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 7.8N LONM12 = 89.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 7.8N LONM24 = 87.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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