TC Bertha

[TCmet]

per latest visible sat image, seems to be ingesting some dry air into the core = upcoming interim period of weakening?

[curtadams]

Looks like an ERC to me. Two walls, both incomplete but moreso the inner one.

[caribepr]

From the 11 AM Advisory Discussion:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CONUNDRUM

That is what forecaster Beven says in terms of the intensity forecast for Bertha.

Love it when they start talkin' dirty

[JonathanBelles]

I didnt even think about posting the stuff from NASA:

Hurricane Bertha Bringing Dangerous Surf to Bermuda

Even though Hurricane Bertha won't make a direct hit to Bermuda, it doesn't mean vacationers have a free pass to ocean fun. In fact, as Bertha passes to the east of Bermuda, she's kicking up dangerously large ocean swells and high surf. Those conditions will persist for the next several days as Bertha continues on her northern track.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center warned Bermudans in its public advisory, "It is still too early to determine the extent to which Bertha could impact Bermuda. Interests on that island should closely monitor the progress of Bertha during the next several days."

The Royal Gazette on the island of Bermuda reports that "The emergency measures organisation of the Home Affairs Minister, and representatives from the Weather Service, Harbour Radio, Police, Fire and the Regiment urged the public to continue to monitor the storm and to stay out of the sea."

At that time, on July 10, the center of Bertha was located about 485 miles (785 kilometers) southeast of Bermuda, or near latitude 26.5 degrees north and longitude 60.2 degrees west.

Bertha is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/hr). A gradual turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days, thus, the expected high surf conditions will linger in Bermuda a little longer.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 Km/hr) with higher gusts. That makes Bertha a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While Bertha has weakened this morning, forecasters say that it could re-intensify during the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 millibars.

This infrared image of Bertha was created by data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), an instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite. The image was created on July 10 at 5:59 UTC (1:59 a.m. EDT).

The AIRS image shows the temperature of the cloud tops or the surface of the Earth in cloud-free regions. The lowest temperatures (in purple) are associated with high, cold cloud tops that make up the top of Bertha. The infrared signal of the AIRS instrument does not penetrate through clouds. Where there are no clouds the AIRS instrument reads the infrared signal from the surface of the ocean waters, revealing warmer temperatures in orange and red.

Text credit: Rob Gutro, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurri ... ertha.html

[Scorpion]

Cat 1's don't have ERC's.. its definitely some dry air

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears to be a EWRC to me. On satellite a larger eye is starting to take over, with the smaller one dieing.

[JonathanBelles]

I think its a little combination of both. Think there may be a little bit of dry air in there as well as a reformation.

[HURAKAN]

[CajunMama]

Kudo's to chad for putting up the Active Tropical Cyclones & Invests map up at the top with links underneath it. Looks good doesn't it?

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

Excellent chad.

[Thunder44]

There is not an EWRC. There has been only one eyewall. Dry air is getting into the inner core.

[Derek Ortt]

the dry air has been unable to penetrate the eyewall due to the lack of shear

[Cyclone1]

Wow Chad, that looks great!

This is a very shallow storm. Not a lot of super-cold cloud tops.

[brunota2003]

Looks like Isabel did right before she fell apart.

[HURAKAN]

Bertha 7-10-96:

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

The only thing I would suggest with the banner is that when you change links it changes in the box and it doesnt go to another page. I also think that the gaps should be taken out to limit the expanse of the box.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I love it Chad...Darn you fact your never happy...LOL J/K

[cycloneye]

Down to 75 kts per ATCF:

AL, 02, 2008071018, , BEST, 0, 269N, 605W, 75, 980, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 15,