Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

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PTrackerLA
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Re: GFS spawns New Low off Africa

#81 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:38 am

Yep looks like a low headed for the Lesser Antilles and Bertha is just stuck right by Bermuda. Talk about an extended period of some rain and rough seas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#82 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:47 am

Here is the full loop of the 12z GFS showing the "system" forming in the central Atlantic, moving toward the northern islands, and eventually impacting Florida, the Bahamas and the northern Gulf Coast in about 10-15 days...

surface loop = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
850mb vorticity loop = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Also - - At the end of the run, notice that the GFS tries to bring yet another decent-looking low off the African coast and into the central Atlantic! We could definitely be in for a very active CV season if this keeps up.
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#83 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:57 pm

The big story from the 12Z GFS run is NOT the Florida hit at 264hrs. It is the genesis of a cyclone in the next 3-5 days off Africa at low latitudes. That's the big story.
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Re:

#84 Postby vacanechaser » Thu Jul 10, 2008 1:13 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:The big story from the 12Z GFS run is NOT the Florida hit at 264hrs. It is the genesis of a cyclone in the next 3-5 days off Africa at low latitudes. That's the big story.


not to mention at the end of the run it shows another possible development out off africa.... this COULD be the start of a long and very busy season.... will have to see if the gfs continues to show both systems over the coming days




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re: GFS spawns New Low off Africa

#85 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 10, 2008 1:32 pm

Convection holding together in East Atlantic. Maybe we will see an invest before to long.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... n=atlantic
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Scorpion

#86 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 10, 2008 2:00 pm

Euro shows Caribbean threat.

Image
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Re:

#87 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 2:06 pm

Scorpion wrote:Euro shows Caribbean threat.

Image


Euro has Triple with Bertha, someone in the W/Carr and DR...Interesting..
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Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#88 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 10, 2008 2:25 pm

Just so I'm clear, this is for the low that moved off the African coast yesterday?
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Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#89 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 10, 2008 2:29 pm

Blown_away wrote:Just so I'm clear, this is for the low that moved off the African coast yesterday?


No,this is for the one that will come out tommorow.
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Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#90 Postby ronjon » Thu Jul 10, 2008 2:30 pm

From HPC:

...TROPICS
SEE NHC/OPC ADVISORIES AND PRODUCTS FOR BERTHA. ELSW THE LONGER TERM MEAN PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA INTO NRN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FAVORABLE FOR A CONTD WRLY TRACK OF ANY SYSTEMS EXITING AFRICA. LONGER TERM SHEAR FORECASTS OF ECMWF/GFS ENS MEANS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE. SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF TAKE A NUMBER OF WAVES WWD TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONGER TERM. MONITOR NHC OUTLOOKS.
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Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#91 Postby ekal » Thu Jul 10, 2008 2:55 pm

ronjon wrote:From HPC:

...TROPICS
SEE NHC/OPC ADVISORIES AND PRODUCTS FOR BERTHA. ELSW THE LONGER TERM MEAN PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA INTO NRN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FAVORABLE FOR A CONTD WRLY TRACK OF ANY SYSTEMS EXITING AFRICA. LONGER TERM SHEAR FORECASTS OF ECMWF/GFS ENS MEANS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE. SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF TAKE A NUMBER OF WAVES WWD TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONGER TERM. MONITOR NHC OUTLOOKS.


:uarrow: That statement by HPC gave me a chill, particularly with the ECMWF forecasting 1-2 areas of genesis in the next two weeks.
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Re: Re:

#92 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:05 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Euro shows Caribbean threat.

Image


Euro has Triple with Bertha, someone in the W/Carr and DR...Interesting..
Hmm. You're right. That is interesting.
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Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#93 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:06 pm

Yes that statement above means interests in the Caribbean, South Florida, and Bahamas need to be paying attention to the NHC outlooks over the next couple of weeks given the pattern that is setting up for westrunners.
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Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#94 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:24 pm

ronjon wrote:From HPC:

...TROPICS
SEE NHC/OPC ADVISORIES AND PRODUCTS FOR BERTHA. ELSW THE LONGER TERM MEAN PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA INTO NRN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FAVORABLE FOR A CONTD WRLY TRACK OF ANY SYSTEMS EXITING AFRICA. LONGER TERM SHEAR FORECASTS OF ECMWF/GFS ENS MEANS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE. SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF TAKE A NUMBER OF WAVES WWD TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONGER TERM. MONITOR NHC OUTLOOKS.



This is all fine and dandy but something has to actually develop before we all start worrying about tropical mischief. We had favorable conditions last season but either nothing would get going or when it did it moved straight into Mexico. I recall one HPC discussion last season actually warned of possible development in the GOM and nothing panned out. The weather patterns change so dramatically day by day that these models are really just something just to talk about and nothing more at times. It's like predicting who will win the Super Bowl in 2012. You just don't know.
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Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#95 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:32 pm

On your mark...get set...GO .We may see the 2008 season come close to rivaling 2005 for number of named storms and hurricanes.Once the areas of the GOM and Carribean get more condusive to letting systems roam freely and strengthen,look out!
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Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#96 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:37 pm

canegrl04 wrote:On your mark...get set...GO .We may see the 2008 season come close to rivaling 2005 for number of named storms and hurricanes.Once the areas of the GOM and Carribean get more condusive to letting systems roam freely and strengthen,look out!

That is absolutely unattainable for 2008 (and the vast majority of Atlantic seasons).

The pattern isn't remotely analogous to 2005. Mean SLP values were considerably lower in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Oceanic heat content was more substantive in those regions during the 2005 season. We will likely observe an active season with multiple Cape Verde systems, but the total NS will be much closer to 2004 (14-15 NS) than 2005. Activity in 2005 commenced much earlier than 2008, and frequency of tropical cyclogenesis was much greater.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#97 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:39 pm

If one checks out the Euro 500 mb heights, it seems, if the Euro is right, both systems may stay fairly far South. The bigger system appears to bend North in response to a trough moving off the East Coast, but that trough looks like it is moving out on Day 10 and being replaced with a solid looking ridge. May never get to the US, even if the Euro is correct. Of course, a path through Hispaniola, while disasterous for the poor inhabitants of an island with steep slopes, would also mean the possibility that a badly disrupted system would result.


Of course, at 10 days, a potential system could miss Hispaniola on either side, if a system even forms.


But, in my highly unofficial and amateur opinion, any tropical systems coming off Africa and developing in the next week to week and a half may stay South of the US, and be Caribbean and Central American threats. Or they may not.
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Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#98 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:43 pm

canegrl04 wrote:On your mark...get set...GO .We may see the 2008 season come close to rivaling 2005 for number of named storms and hurricanes.Once the areas of the GOM and Carribean get more condusive to letting systems roam freely and strengthen,look out!



I bet you a can pork & beans it doesn't come close. :lol:
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Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#99 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:46 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:On your mark...get set...GO .We may see the 2008 season come close to rivaling 2005 for number of named storms and hurricanes.Once the areas of the GOM and Carribean get more condusive to letting systems roam freely and strengthen,look out!



I bet you a can pork & beans it doesn't come close. :lol:


I'm in for a can of Rotel and green beans as well.
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Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#100 Postby hial2 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 4:03 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:If one checks out the Euro 500 mb heights, it seems, if the Euro is right, both systems may stay fairly far South. The bigger system appears to bend North in response to a trough moving off the East Coast, but that trough looks like it is moving out on Day 10 and being replaced with a solid looking ridge. May never get to the US, even if the Euro is correct. Of course, a path through Hispaniola, while disasterous for the poor inhabitants of an island with steep slopes, would also mean the possibility that a badly disrupted system would result.


Of course, at 10 days, a potential system could miss Hispaniola on either side, if a system even forms.


But, in my highly unofficial and amateur opinion, any tropical systems coming off Africa and developing in the next week to week and a half may stay South of the US, and be Caribbean and Central American threats. Or they may not.


Way to go out on a limb, Ed..... :D
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