Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
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- chadtm80
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Destruction how long did you think she may stall for?
may not be a stall but that's a long period of slow movement to me
may not be a stall but that's a long period of slow movement to me
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Looks like latest 12Z GFS wrecks havoc on Bermuda for 120 hrs and maybe longer - it has the storm stalling and meandering near Bermuda from Sat afternoon through Thursday afernoon and then very slowly drifting away. If it maintains intensity, Bermuda is going to take a pounding from Bertha.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_pcp_s_loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_pcp_s_loop.shtml
Last edited by ronjon on Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Yeah, this would be a horrible scenario for the island of Bermuda. They would be wind and wave whipped for days on end.ronjon wrote:Looks like latest 12Z GFS wrecks havoc on Bermuda for at least 72hrs and maybe longer - it has the storm stalling and meandering near Bermuda from Sat afternoon through Tueday afernoon and only very slowly drifting away. If it maintains intensity, Bermuda is going to take a pounding from Bertha.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_pcp_s_loop.shtml
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
12z GFDL shifts more west,now reaches 63w,a longitud that it never has reached before.Also has it crawling.
965
WHXX04 KWBC 101727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 10
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 26.3 59.8 315./ 8.0
6 26.9 60.3 315./ 7.5
12 27.3 60.7 319./ 5.4
18 27.8 61.4 310./ 7.8
24 28.2 61.9 305./ 6.1
30 28.6 62.3 319./ 5.2
36 29.0 62.6 312./ 4.8
42 29.3 62.9 317./ 4.0
48 29.8 63.1 345./ 5.7
54 30.3 63.2 344./ 4.6
60 30.6 63.0 35./ 3.4
66 31.1 62.9 14./ 5.2
72 31.5 62.7 17./ 4.7
78 31.9 62.6 20./ 3.8
84 32.3 62.4 30./ 4.7
90 32.8 62.1 30./ 5.6
96 33.5 61.7 31./ 7.8
102 34.1 61.2 37./ 6.5
108 34.7 60.6 42./ 8.4
114 35.2 60.2 44./ 5.8
120 35.7 59.6 47./ 7.3
126 36.2 58.9 59./ 6.9
965
WHXX04 KWBC 101727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 10
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 26.3 59.8 315./ 8.0
6 26.9 60.3 315./ 7.5
12 27.3 60.7 319./ 5.4
18 27.8 61.4 310./ 7.8
24 28.2 61.9 305./ 6.1
30 28.6 62.3 319./ 5.2
36 29.0 62.6 312./ 4.8
42 29.3 62.9 317./ 4.0
48 29.8 63.1 345./ 5.7
54 30.3 63.2 344./ 4.6
60 30.6 63.0 35./ 3.4
66 31.1 62.9 14./ 5.2
72 31.5 62.7 17./ 4.7
78 31.9 62.6 20./ 3.8
84 32.3 62.4 30./ 4.7
90 32.8 62.1 30./ 5.6
96 33.5 61.7 31./ 7.8
102 34.1 61.2 37./ 6.5
108 34.7 60.6 42./ 8.4
114 35.2 60.2 44./ 5.8
120 35.7 59.6 47./ 7.3
126 36.2 58.9 59./ 6.9
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
cpdaman wrote:Destruction how long did you think she may stall for?
may not be a stall but that's a long period of slow movement to me
I said many pages back it would stall around the 27th paralell..Looks like its gonna crawl N starting at that point...
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- deltadog03
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Have you mentioned the low that follows Bertha? It brushes the lesser antilles as a sub 1000 mb TS? Anything?
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 110100
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0100 UTC FRI JUL 11 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080711 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080711 0000 080711 1200 080712 0000 080712 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 61.0W 28.3N 62.2W 29.3N 62.8W 30.5N 62.8W
BAMD 27.4N 61.0W 28.7N 62.1W 30.0N 62.8W 31.4N 62.8W
BAMM 27.4N 61.0W 28.4N 62.1W 29.5N 62.8W 30.7N 62.8W
LBAR 27.4N 61.0W 28.6N 61.7W 29.6N 62.2W 30.8N 62.3W
SHIP 75KTS 74KTS 75KTS 75KTS
DSHP 75KTS 74KTS 75KTS 75KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080713 0000 080714 0000 080715 0000 080716 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.7N 62.4W 33.5N 62.0W 35.0N 61.5W 36.2N 58.6W
BAMD 32.8N 61.7W 34.8N 59.7W 37.3N 58.8W 40.9N 58.9W
BAMM 32.0N 62.1W 33.7N 61.1W 35.2N 59.9W 36.8N 57.8W
LBAR 31.9N 62.3W 33.9N 61.5W 36.5N 59.6W 42.0N 58.9W
SHIP 73KTS 67KTS 67KTS 65KTS
DSHP 73KTS 67KTS 67KTS 65KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 61.0W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 26.3N LONM12 = 59.8W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 25.2N LONM24 = 58.6W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 100NM
$$
NNNN
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0100 UTC FRI JUL 11 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080711 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080711 0000 080711 1200 080712 0000 080712 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 61.0W 28.3N 62.2W 29.3N 62.8W 30.5N 62.8W
BAMD 27.4N 61.0W 28.7N 62.1W 30.0N 62.8W 31.4N 62.8W
BAMM 27.4N 61.0W 28.4N 62.1W 29.5N 62.8W 30.7N 62.8W
LBAR 27.4N 61.0W 28.6N 61.7W 29.6N 62.2W 30.8N 62.3W
SHIP 75KTS 74KTS 75KTS 75KTS
DSHP 75KTS 74KTS 75KTS 75KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080713 0000 080714 0000 080715 0000 080716 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.7N 62.4W 33.5N 62.0W 35.0N 61.5W 36.2N 58.6W
BAMD 32.8N 61.7W 34.8N 59.7W 37.3N 58.8W 40.9N 58.9W
BAMM 32.0N 62.1W 33.7N 61.1W 35.2N 59.9W 36.8N 57.8W
LBAR 31.9N 62.3W 33.9N 61.5W 36.5N 59.6W 42.0N 58.9W
SHIP 73KTS 67KTS 67KTS 65KTS
DSHP 73KTS 67KTS 67KTS 65KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 61.0W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 26.3N LONM12 = 59.8W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 25.2N LONM24 = 58.6W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 100NM
$$
NNNN
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
The 00:00 UTC SHIP forecast: Shear not a big issue.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* BERTHA AL022008 07/11/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 74 75 75 75 73 70 67 64 67 64 65
V (KT) LAND 75 74 74 75 75 75 73 70 67 64 67 64 65
V (KT) LGE mod 75 73 71 70 70 69 69 68 66 63 61 60 59
SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 9 6 6 6 12 11 18 15 11 7 9
SHEAR DIR 132 168 176 131 130 153 150 185 175 202 183 169 254
SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.5 24.8 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 133 133 130 126 123 119 116 112 108 103 102
ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 113 112 109 104 102 97 96 94 91 87 86
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 9 8 7 6
700-500 MB RH 38 41 43 41 38 44 44 50 47 46 46 51 56
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 18 18 20 22 22 26 23 25
850 MB ENV VOR -84 -90 -89 -97 -94 -46 -27 -7 -20 -21 23 70 98
200 MB DIV -19 -15 -1 -4 11 28 16 -1 20 29 31 33 47
LAND (KM) 1113 1147 1184 1223 1263 1342 1392 1369 1334 1258 1149 994 818
LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.3 30.1 30.7 31.2 31.6 32.4 33.5 35.0 36.8
LONG(DEG W) 61.0 61.4 61.7 61.9 62.1 62.3 62.1 62.1 62.3 62.3 62.1 61.9 61.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 5 7 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 25 22 18 15 10 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 5. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -5. -8. -7.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -8. -11. -10.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/11/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/11/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
cycloneye wrote:The 00:00 UTC SHIP forecast: Shear not a big issue.Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* BERTHA AL022008 07/11/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 74 75 75 75 73 70 67 64 67 64 65
V (KT) LAND 75 74 74 75 75 75 73 70 67 64 67 64 65
V (KT) LGE mod 75 73 71 70 70 69 69 68 66 63 61 60 59
SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 9 6 6 6 12 11 18 15 11 7 9
SHEAR DIR 132 168 176 131 130 153 150 185 175 202 183 169 254
SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.5 24.8 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 133 133 130 126 123 119 116 112 108 103 102
ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 113 112 109 104 102 97 96 94 91 87 86
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 9 8 7 6
700-500 MB RH 38 41 43 41 38 44 44 50 47 46 46 51 56
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 18 18 20 22 22 26 23 25
850 MB ENV VOR -84 -90 -89 -97 -94 -46 -27 -7 -20 -21 23 70 98
200 MB DIV -19 -15 -1 -4 11 28 16 -1 20 29 31 33 47
LAND (KM) 1113 1147 1184 1223 1263 1342 1392 1369 1334 1258 1149 994 818
LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.3 30.1 30.7 31.2 31.6 32.4 33.5 35.0 36.8
LONG(DEG W) 61.0 61.4 61.7 61.9 62.1 62.3 62.1 62.1 62.3 62.3 62.1 61.9 61.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 5 7 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 25 22 18 15 10 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 5. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -5. -8. -7.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -8. -11. -10.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/11/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/11/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
Can someone tell me what this is? I av never seen this in the last 5 seasons?
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: Hurricane Bertha Model Runs
Models no longer in such good agreement... big spread between GFS, BAM, and UKMET
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Models really are all over the shop in how to exit the hurricane off to the north, seems like it may take a series of troughs to finally lift Bertha out to the north. Also should be noted that according to the SHIPS this will be back in sub 26C waters by 96hrs, though thats on the assumption it will be at 35N by that time.
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