I noticed the other thread, but since it was geared toward multiple systems (instead of the current wave axis that will enter the Atlantic overnight), I'll start a thread dedicated solely to this system.
The operational GFS and Euro are certainly aggressive in regards to Cape Verde cyclogenesis occurring over the next 5-7 days and beyond. It should be noted that the operational GFS and other models often exhibit a well known bias to develop multiple spurious surface lows across the Atlantic basin during the MJO's current presence in the region. Therefore, I doubt the "extreme" solutions depicted and well advertised by the Euro and others in the medium to long term will verify with a series of tropical cyclones crossing the MDR and moving into the Caribbean region. That's exceptionally unrealistic, though I do agree that a more conducive pattern for cyclogenesis is setting up across the basin.
Regardless, I would monitor the wave axis that is currently over the interior of western Africa and will enter the Atlantic overnight and tomorrow.
Satellite data suggests that a low pressure area may be associated with the wave axis, and capping from the Saharan Air Layer is minimal to the west and north of the system. In fact,
CIMSS analysis indicates the SAL is a much less significant issue than it was with the wave that eventually developed to Bertha.
Low level vorticity at 850 mb is also substantive in the immediate vicinity offshore. Shear is minimal across the eastern tropical Atlantic within the MDR, and several models suggest the trend will continue over the next several days with a weaker Azores ridge in place. In addition, as I and others mentioned, the operational GFS and Euro have been suggesting and indicating a more active pattern developing across the basin over the next few weeks. The GFS
does develop a surface low ~48 hours out from this current wave that is exiting the coastline. The next ~24 hours of persistence are the key. If convection develops and sustains itself, this current wave may very likely become a player for possible development over the next several days.
As an aside, with the shortening of wavelengths and zonal flow across the CONUS (partially because of the MJO induced stronger equatorial anomalies/divergence), a more favorable Atlantic basin environment seems very plausible.