Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

[canegrl04]

Will this cloud mass emerging Africa tonight be the one the models develop?

That thing looks pretty healthy. Future Cristobol?

[MiamiensisWx]

Will this cloud mass emerging Africa tonight be the one the models develop?

That thing looks pretty healthy. Future Cristobol?

Here's the main thread for that one:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101771

[MiamiensisWx]

ECMWF (Euro) develops it as well:

96 hours at 850 mb

[Blown Away]

ECMWF (Euro) develops it as well:

96 hours at 850 mb

At the end run it appears to start a more NW movement towards SFL, after being destroyed by Hispanola.

[CourierPR]

Miamiensis, I am glad you are still posting. You add much to this forum.
Barry

[Vortex]

Buckle up folks this one appears destined to come far west based on the forecasted synoptics given by the medium range models.

[boca]

It looks like this new low is at the same latitude Bertha formed at just south of the Cape Verdes.

[Sanibel]

I didn't think Bertha would develop so I won't offer any opinion on development. However, the whole Atlantic basin looks negative right now including a dying Bertha.

[Stormcenter]

Buckle up folks this one appears destined to come far west based on the forecasted synoptics given by the medium range models.

Another pretty bold statement I must say considering we talking about a system that hasn't even formed yet and may not
ever.

[MiamiensisWx]

I didn't think Bertha would develop so I won't offer any opinion on development. However, the whole Atlantic basin looks negative right now including a dying Bertha.

Bertha is experiencing an ERC. Shear is negligible at this time, while oceanic heat content is sufficient and very substantial for some additional re-intensification. The upper low is enhancing ascent and divergence along the western quadrant. Bertha is clearly NOT "dying."

Additionally, did you read the first post in this thread where I mentioned MARGINAL SAL/capping, very low shear, above normal SSTA, and 850 mb vorticity in the vicinity of this system?

The main negating factor for this one is climatology (in regards to multiple CV July TCs), and that can be "defied" if conditions permit it at times.

[boca]

Buckle up folks this one appears destined to come far west based on the forecasted synoptics given by the medium range models.

Another pretty bold statement I must say considering we talking about a system that hasn't even formed yet and may not
ever.

Hey stormcenter coming from anyone else I would take your side but vortex seems to sniff these things out well and also we have support of most models.

[boca]

I didn't think Bertha would develop so I won't offer any opinion on development. However, the whole Atlantic basin looks negative right now including a dying Bertha.

Bertha is experiencing an ERC. Shear is negligible at this time, while oceanic heat content is sufficient and very substantial for some additional re-intensification. The upper low is enhancing ascent and divergence along the western quadrant. Bertha is clearly NOT "dying."

Additionally, did you read the first post in this thread where I mentioned MARGINAL SAL/capping, very low shear, above normal SSTA, and 850 mb vorticity in the vicinity of this system?

The main negating factor for this one is climatology (in regards to multiple CV July TCs), and that can be "defied" if conditions permit it at times.

I might add that mother nature doesn't know its July.

[Sanibel]

Came back to say that Africa is kicking out vorticity with this one as well and that could be all it takes. We'll see if it re-convects over water. Odd year. Small, not-outstanding African Lows with good spin take root. Not the normal process. Normally a high position near CV would suggest another oceanic track.

[CourierPR]

I didn't think Bertha would develop so I won't offer any opinion on development. However, the whole Atlantic basin looks negative right now including a dying Bertha.

Sanibel, on what do you base your opinion?

[MiamiensisWx]

...and I wouldn't have felt the impetus to initiate this thread if I did not see any potential for tropical cyclogenesis. I'm usually very conservative, so this is significant as well. I don't automatically assume that development in the MDR during July is exceptionally common. In actuality, my typical response toward the "2005 repeat" claims features a denunciation and carefully crafted, fact based rebuke of those assertions.

[boca]

I didn't think Bertha would develop so I won't offer any opinion on development. However, the whole Atlantic basin looks negative right now including a dying Bertha.

Sanibel, on what do you base your opinion?

I respectfully disagree the Atlantic is prime right now with warmer than normal sst's by Afriacan coastline lower shear and lower than average SAL right now the Atlantic is ready for take off.

[Sanibel]

Lack of good convection in what looks like a basin-wide minima. But the west Atlantic area has been hostile and still is. Bertha showed us that the CV belt is favorable early and an exception. These "head-start" African Lows developing so close to the coast are weird and something I've never seen before (though I think there was one last year too) - which is why I thought Bertha would fail. Look at the NHC satellite entire Atlantic shot and you'll see a lack of convection throughout (Including our current exiter).

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

Operational GFS still develops surface low around 30 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif

[Vortex]

00Z GFS rolling in..

So Far broad area of low pressure forms by +48 which appears to be the culmination of weak wave at around 8n/22.5 W currently combined with the wave/mid level circulation moving off Africa this evening..

H+48 beginning to take shape
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

H+78 more organized
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

H+108 organization continues

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif