Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

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RL3AO
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Re: Possible development off W Africa during next several days

#141 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:59 pm

boca wrote:
CourierPR wrote:
Sanibel wrote:I didn't think Bertha would develop so I won't offer any opinion on development. However, the whole Atlantic basin looks negative right now including a dying Bertha.

Sanibel, on what do you base your opinion?


I respectfully disagree the Atlantic is prime right now with warmer than normal sst's by Afriacan coastline lower shear and lower than average SAL right now the Atlantic is ready for take off.


And a very very favorable MJO phase.
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Re: Re:

#142 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:59 pm

boca wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
Vortex wrote:Buckle up folks this one appears destined to come far west based on the forecasted synoptics given by the medium range models.



Another pretty bold statement I must say considering we talking about a system that hasn't even formed yet and may not
ever.


Hey stormcenter coming from anyone else I would take your side but vortex seems to sniff these things out well and also we have support of most models.



Hopefully it will stay way south as it moves westward not that I'm not wishing anything bad on the good folks in Carribean or Mexico.
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#143 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:01 pm

00z GFS 72 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072m.gif

00z GFS 78 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078m.gif

00z GFS 84 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084m.gif

loop that will update as new images come in.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:09 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re:

#144 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:02 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:00z GFS 72 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072m.gif



Depression over FL..LOL
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Re:

#145 Postby Vortex » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:09 pm




looks like bertha may create enough of a weakness in her wake giving this system a nudge to the NW at least for 1-2 days before heading back west as ridging builds back in...
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#146 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:15 pm

Ar hour 108 there are three interesting features. They include Hurricane Bertha (obviously), the low out in the central Atlantic, and also a strong tropical wave impacting the northern islands and heading toward the Bahamas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_108m.gif
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#147 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:16 pm

Image

Image
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Re:

#148 Postby Vortex » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:17 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Ar hour 108 there are three interesting features. They include Hurricane Bertha (obviously), the low out in the central Atlantic, and also a strong tropical wave impacting the northern islands and heading toward the Bahamas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_108m.gif



Amazing this is barely the second week of July and i feel like its the last week of august when viewing the model data..The doldrums of July NOT this year!
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Re:

#149 Postby Vortex » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:18 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Image



Hurrakan,

Gotta hand it to you your tops when it comes to resourceful images and other data...Nice work as usual.
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#150 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:25 pm

Always a pleasure to be useful!!! Going to sleep because the first RECON of the season is likely to be very interesting.
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#151 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:26 pm

At hour 138, Bertha is still churning in the Atlantic, the strong tropical wave is moving through the Bahamas, and the central Atlantic low continues to grow stronger and stronger...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_138m.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138m.gif
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#152 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:28 pm

This is definitely interesting... it reminds me of Dean since I tracked him from when he was a 384 hour fantasy storm. Amazing this is a full month earlier though.
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#153 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:36 pm

At hour 168 (7 days from now) the 00z GFS depicts Hurricane Bertha moving out, the once-strong tropical wave washing out over Florida, and the strong Atlantic low (likely a tropical cyclone at this point) approaching the northern islands...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_168m.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168m.gif
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#154 Postby Vortex » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:37 pm

GFS H+168
Cristobal appears to be making a bee line for the lesser antilles

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
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#155 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:44 pm

hr. 192 - - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192m.gif

The low is impacting the northern islands
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#156 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:45 pm

hr. 216 - - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216m.gif

The low is making a beeline toward the Bahamas
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#157 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:45 pm

hr. 240 - - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240m.gif

The low is impacting the Bahamas
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#158 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:48 pm

Between hour 240 and 276, the low turns north just east of Florida and tracks up the East Coast...

hr. 252 - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252m.gif

hr. 264 - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264m.gif

hr. 276 - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276m.gif

Full loop - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Scorpion

#159 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:59 pm

Haha thats an interesting model run..
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Re: GFS,EURO spawns New Low off Africa

#160 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:24 am

Will be interesting to see if these ghost storms pan out
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