TC Bertha

[HurricaneHunter914]

That's going to be one huge eye when she's done with the EWRC. Still looks pretty decent tonight. Good night everyone.

[cheezyWXguy]

That's going to be one huge eye when she's done with the EWRC. Still looks pretty decent tonight. Good night everyone.

Actually the eye looks to have contacted a little bit in the last hour and a half or so...so when it gets done itll probably be like 45 or 50nm, instead of 60 or 75nm

[senorpepr]

I've added the NHC forecast to the Bertha charts while adding a zoomed-in Bermuda graphic for surface plots.

[Derek Ortt]

a large part of my M.S. Thesis was on eyewall replacement

this is most certainly an eyewall replacement

[KWT]

Yep you can clearly see the inner eyewall decay and a much larger eye start to emerge. Outer eyewall is starting to become dominant whilst the inner decays. I just wonder how quickly the large eye will contract given we have recon coming in fairly soon, may just catch it starting to strengthen again, hopefully.

[HURAKAN]

[Ad Novoxium]

There's a better picture of Winnie here:

http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520- ... -1-137.pdf

It looks like it's almost all eye. The inner eyewall remains and looks like a mini typhoon.

Actually, Winnie (following ERC) and Carmen had similar eyewall sizes. It's not too hard to compare Winnie to what Carmen may have looked like.

[KWT]

Hurakan you can really see the inner eyewall and the mess left over from it within the eye, thats a really interesting image there!

[cycloneye]

Look at the little yellow dot (Bermuda) in relation to where Bertha is.

[KWT]

Yep Bermuda is tiny compared to Bertha, seems like the hurricane has become larger again which is to be expected once it under went a EWRC, they usually get a little more chunky.

[HURAKAN]

[caribepr]

Doing a boat delivery years ago, we stopped at Bermuda on the way to Boston...it made perfect sense to me that it was discovered by accident during a storm when some boats in a group from England were blown off course, because I can't imagine any other way to find it so far out in the sea in the middle of *nowhere* back then!
I was really impressed at 1) the cleanliness and 2) the extremely well built structures, compared to so many islands. They ARE prepared, from the ground up.
I'm learning so much from you all during this. Thanks again.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Hmm the inner core still looks like a mess, seems like its stuck between finishing off the inner eyewall and replacing it with the new outer eyewall, I wouldn't be that surprised if recon finds a struggling hurricane today unless it gets its act on sooner rather then later.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Looks like the old inner eyewall is hanging on in the eastern section of the system whilst on the western side you can see the outer part of the system is stronger.

Have to admit its got a really messy core.

[gatorcane]

and there is still zero chance that this thing can do a loop east then south and then and begin to ultimately head westward again. I still wonder especially because the GFS now has her moving east slowly and not gaining much lattitude. If the Bermuda High ultimately ends up building in (which it is forecast to in the next 5-7 days) and Bertha is still around I do wonder.
I do think there is a chance but it seems small at this time.

[cycloneye]

Still at 75 kts,980 mbs.Lets see what recon finds.

AL, 02, 2008071112, , BEST, 0, 283N, 618W, 75, 980, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 15, 1014, 200, 15, 0, 0,

[KWT]

I'm in two minds about this, if the outer eyewall can contract just a little bit further then 75kts is probably more then likely to be found by recon but if it keeps its current structure then I think recon may have a hard time finding winds to justify that, the only up side for this system is that it has been a stronger hurricane before so must have a certain amount of momentum still with its circulation.

[tolakram]

Looks like Bertha is stuck, I don't see much if any movement in the loops.



If that's the case then it will run out of warm water pretty quickly, in my opinion.