TC Bertha

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HURAKAN
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#3621 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:44 am

Image

Image

The inner center hasn't collapsed yet.
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Scorpion

#3622 Postby Scorpion » Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:46 am

Kind of reminds me of how Frances looked when she weakened
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Re:

#3623 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:51 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Image

The inner center hasn't collapsed yet.


It looks like to me, based on that microwave image. That the "outer" eyewall has already taken over, and the "inner center" is really an MCV spinning around causing a little area of showers or storms, in the eye. I wonder if it has been this way since yesterday, instead of their being two eyewalls.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3624 Postby Chacor » Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:52 am

75 knots brings the best-track ACE to 15.1; the operational ACE is 15.235.
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#3625 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:53 am

I think its moving but the problem is there is so much mess left over from the inner eyewall still that its making it hard to tell the actual movement esp given the size of the eye presently.

Indeed Scorpion the inner eyewall just doesn't want to totally decay just yet, I think its slowly on its way to completing the process but only slowly. Till its done I can't see it strengthening any though the models are forecasting some decent strengthening occuring which given the very impressive outflow does make sense, just got to sort that inner eyewall out first, I'd say give it another 6-9hrs.
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#3626 Postby Cyclone1 » Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:30 am

Reminds me of somewhat of Hurricane Frances in 1992.

This has been an interesting storm...
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3627 Postby cpdaman » Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:36 am

NWS says warm water is relatively shallow under bertha and that if she spins for 24 hours upwelling very well could be an issue, i think she has 12 hours to get her self to a cat 2
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#3628 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:38 am

The thing is soon its going to getting an extra help from the troughs as they sweap along, indeed the GFS has this really pumping up outside 72hrs thanks to this. I think that whilst upwelling could become an issue it does have a large eye and it does seem to be slowly moving off.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3629 Postby jasons2k » Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:43 am

Just to clarify earlier, I wasn't saying an ERC wasn't taking place...
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3630 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:05 am

Lastest from HPC this morning...snipet...

THE POLAR VORTEX NEAR THE NORTH POLE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS ALASKA AND THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO...WHICH BEGINS TO
DIVERT THE STORM TRACK IN EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
EVEN FARTHER NORTHWARD...
LEAVING BERTHA IN WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
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#3631 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:15 am

So in other words its going to get stuck in between the different upper features. Could become a very messy pattern and probably by the time it reaches 35N the hurricane might start to beocme messier with help from Baroclinic features.
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#3632 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:25 am

Image

Wow!!
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#3633 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:30 am

What a strange looking hurricane bertha is now, huge eye with all the left overs seemingly inside. Lookls like the outerwall is finally totally dominant and should start to contract soon I'd have thought. Recon will be interesting!
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#3634 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:32 am

Image

There you go!!!
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#3635 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:33 am

Yep the inner eyewall is finally nearly gone, should start to see Bertha getting a little stronger shortly, esp if the eye can contract further.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3636 Postby Sanibel » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:35 am

I wasn't saying an EWR wasn't taking place either. Just saying that IR shows weak convection and dry air banding - but typical of Bertha, happening at the same time as better compact form and an attempt to change gears to a more solid large-eye donut, but lacking the strength and conditions to do it. As I said before, this would have been a fierce hurricane in late August or September. The large eye wasn't going to sustain.
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#3637 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:40 am

Image

I tried to make it as accurate as possible but there is always room for error.
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#3638 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:43 am

Woah a 90 miles wide eye thats huge!
Recon should be there soon enough, that must also push the strongest winds quite a bit further out from the center. Recon is going to find a very large eye isn't it!
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#3639 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:44 am

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
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#3640 Postby artist » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:56 am

latest discussion uses the word annular in its desription of the cloud formations.
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