TC Bertha

[KWT]

Yep I think we may just see some TS gusts on the island of Bermuda if it gets any closer but it may just about stay far enough to the east to give the island any problems other then swell.

[HURAKAN]

Always great when computer models agree!!!

[JonathanBelles]

These ones are better.

BTW this is my last post for likely a few days.

[KWT]

You can see why the models are having trouble though past 48hrs as the steering currents do look very weak, whilst the BAM suite isn't great for this latitude the pattern does look like being very slow to evolve indeed so aren't totally useless in this situation.

[RL3AO]

Lets go loop!

[cycloneye]

Lets go loop!

Imagine the ACE with that happening.

[WmE]

Lets go loop!

Imagine the ACE with that happening.

Shouldn't be that high as it's a rather "weak" system.

[KWT]

I couldn't imagine Bertha doing a loop and lasting another week and yet even if it doesn't do a loop it looks quite possible Bertha will be with us at least to the start of next week and by that time we may have a new freind to watch out for further south, the trough doesn't seem to have the power to lift Bertha out once and for all.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing if the winds support Cat 2 in the NE quad, they will put out a tropical cyclone update (it will be a bit late for a full special advisory).

[wxman57]

99kts FL wind in SE quadrant on outbound leg. That's stronger than 80 kts at the surface.

[caribepr]

What kind of gave me a shock is to realize that in five days Bertha would have just crossed 35°N. I know we want to track cyclones, but to track the same one for too long becomes kind of boring!! WE WANT CRISTÓBAL!!!

Remind me to remind you that you wrote that!

[KWT]

The 99kts was only a 10 seocnd reading mind you wxman57 if that makes any difference and the 30 second reading was only 92kts, maybe thats why?

Or maybe they are just using a lower reduction value?

[Derek Ortt]

99kts FL wind in SE quadrant on outbound leg. That's stronger than 80 kts at the surface.

and 121KT is too high for 90 at the surface

in all seriousness... I think we have a structure similar to Isabel when it struck Hat... where the surface winds are only about 70-75% of the flight level winds

[KWT]

I remember someone saying earlier on this was like Isabel, I wasn't really tracking hurricanes at that time so does anyone have an image of Isabel at the time Derek is talking about?

[RL3AO]

I remember someone saying earlier on this was like Isabel, I wasn't really tracking hurricanes at that time so does anyone have an image of Isabel at the time Derek is talking about?

As cat 5


Near landfall

[brunota2003]

99kts FL wind in SE quadrant on outbound leg. That's stronger than 80 kts at the surface.

and 121KT is too high for 90 at the surface

in all seriousness... I think we have a structure similar to Isabel when it struck Hat... where the surface winds are only about 70-75% of the flight level winds

Indeed. A large eye that has part of an inner eyewall remaining, along with shallow convection that is having trouble transporting the strongest winds aloft down to the surface.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Hmmm yeah I can see the similarties now I've seen Isabel at landfall, big eye which is clouded to some degree with a messy eyewall, esp in the northern segment of the hurricane.
That inner eyewall on the southern side still hasn't gone, I've got a feeling thats going to be there till the system loses its eye totally whenever that will be.

[cycloneye]

The Latest from ATCF:75 kts,977 mbs.Of course this can change as recon releases the data.

AL, 02, 2008071118, , BEST, 0, 287N, 621W, 75, 977, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 25, 1014, 200, 15, 0, 0,

[Derek Ortt]

nothing suggests winds higher than 75KT at this time