Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

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RL3AO
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#241 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:15 pm

From Derek Ortt's site.
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The most interesting part of today's discussion is something which lies 4 - 5 days ahead. As mentioned in the outlook the past two evenings, GFS consistently showed development of a tropical wave in the central Atlantic. Today's 18Z run repeats this scenario and is joined by the CMC and UKMO. Considering how well the models forecast Bertha's genesis just off the coast of Africa, there is some confidence that a tropical cyclone will form in this area. However, the exact time is not certain yet and more model simulations will be done before we can narrow this down.

Convective activity in the basin is low tonight, besides Hurricane Bertha which might stick around for some more days.


Forecaster: Judt
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#242 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:108 hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif Low continues at low latitud around 45w.


This puppy is a west-runner. Reminds me of how Ivan formed at 9.7 deg N and stayed low latitude for a while.
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#243 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:25 pm

132 hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif Low latitud continues passing 50w.
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#244 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:26 pm

This is not in the extended range either. It's just a few days away. Bear Watch hoisted.
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#245 Postby boca » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:27 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
cycloneye wrote:108 hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif Low continues at low latitud around 45w.


This puppy is a west-runner. Reminds me of how Ivan formed at 9.7 deg N and stayed low latitude for a while.


I was just going to say that Ivan was just east of Trinadad at one point.
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#246 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:32 pm

boca wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
cycloneye wrote:108 hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif Low continues at low latitud around 45w.


This puppy is a west-runner. Reminds me of how Ivan formed at 9.7 deg N and stayed low latitude for a while.


I was just going to say that Ivan was just east of Trinadad at one point.



If this becomes another Ivan, I will become a global warming believer for a week in eat dog food each night, while being so. This won't be!

This could be a weak system that will likely recurve like Bertha.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#247 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:34 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
If this becomes another Ivan, I will become a global warming believer for a week in eat dog food each night. This won't be!

This could be a weak system that will likely recurve like Bertha.


Yes, it certainly could. Let's keep watching. Very interesting.
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#248 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:36 pm

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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#249 Postby boca » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:37 pm

Matt I agree with you, but the High pressure could also build west and their might not be an evacuation route like Bertha,lets see what happens.
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#250 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:37 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
boca wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:108 hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif Low continues at low latitud around 45w.


This puppy is a west-runner. Reminds me of how Ivan formed at 9.7 deg N and stayed low latitude for a while.


I was just going to say that Ivan was just east of Trinadad at one point.



If this becomes another Ivan, I will become a global warming believer for a week in eat dog food each night. This won't be!

This could be a weak system that will likely recurve like Bertha.[/quote]

recurve like bertha...... hmmmmm.. bertha is doing nothing that is normal .. so for this system to do the same would be rather low odds ..but hey who knows .. and besides the system shown that develops is at a much lower lat and much farther west than bertha ..
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#251 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:38 pm

Guadeloupe is headed for a smack-down if the 00z GFS verifies.
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#252 Postby tailgater » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:38 pm

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Re:

#253 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:39 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:Wow. Look out Windwards.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162m.gif



Remember people that Bertha was not normal, it was a rare event. This is very likely based on climo to be no more then a weak tropical storm if it forms. If this becomes another strong system then it proves that climo is not as important that some think.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#254 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:39 pm

:uarrow: Our members Gustywind and HUC in that island will open their eyes when they see this run.
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#255 Postby boca » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:40 pm

The way this model run is behaving this could be a Dean or Felix type track.
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Re: Re:

#256 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:42 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Remember people that Bertha was not normal, it was a rare event. This is very likely based on climo to be no more then a weak tropical storm if it forms. If this becomes another strong system then it proves that climo is not as important that some think.


I think climotology doesn't mean as much as active real-time modeling based on current conditions. These models have been spot-on in the 7-day time frame for several years now. They are really good guidance. Climo is already broken by the real-time conditions that currently exist in the basin. So there. :)
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#257 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:43 pm

boca wrote:Matt I agree with you, but the High pressure could also build west and their might not be an evacuation route like Bertha,lets see what happens.



I have a feeling about this season like 96,98,99,2004 feeling. The subtropical ridge is very strong but very favorable this year. Also SAL is low.
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#258 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:43 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
cycloneye wrote:108 hours= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif Low continues at low latitud around 45w.


This puppy is a west-runner. Reminds me of how Ivan formed at 9.7 deg N and stayed low latitude for a while.

I was just going to say that Ivan was just east of Trinadad at one point.



If this becomes another Ivan, I will become a global warming believer for a week in eat dog food each night, while being so. This won't be!

This could be a weak system that will likely recurve like Bertha.



I've read that the warming associated with the end of the Little Ice Age started before the rise of carbon dioxide associated with the onset of the 'Industrial Revolution', and while somewhat infrequent, hurricanes can happen in July, so don't eat Chinese manufactured dog food.
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#259 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:44 pm

boca wrote:The way this model run is behaving this could be a Dean or Felix type track.


Very possible. Although those tracks were TOTAL anomolies, too. Jammin due west for an entire storm lifetime? Now that's a climo-buster. I love the tropics because everything is always so different.
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Re: GFS,CMC,EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS spawn New Low in E Atlantic

#260 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:44 pm

Oh boy,over my head!

Here is the loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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