TC Bertha

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Scorpion

#3881 Postby Scorpion » Sat Jul 12, 2008 1:02 am

It almost looks like a fetus :lol:
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#3882 Postby RL3AO » Sat Jul 12, 2008 1:06 am

IMO, this storm is up there with the Lenny's and Zeta's of the world. A three day+ EWRC.
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#3883 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Jul 12, 2008 1:06 am

I certainly hope that keeps up, as it is very interesting looking and would be a neat feature to study.

As for me, I can check in on it later...I'm going to bed before I wake up on my keyboard. Night all!
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#3884 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Jul 12, 2008 1:50 am

I really just have to laugh at this hurricane. I knew about ERC's being cancelled, but reversed? There is going to be an eye wall battle soon, watch out! :x :lol: A major paper should be written on this thing, it's makin' history!

Derek Ortt wrote:it has to be at least 85KT to be considered annular

so this doesn't fit. The debate over structure is a moot point

How was Hurricane Epsilon annular then?
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Re:

#3885 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 12, 2008 2:02 am

Cyclenall wrote:I really just have to laugh at this hurricane. I knew about ERC's being cancelled, but reversed? There is going to be an eye wall battle soon, watch out! :x :lol: A major paper should be written on this thing, it's makin' history!

Derek Ortt wrote:it has to be at least 85KT to be considered annular

so this doesn't fit. The debate over structure is a moot point

How was Hurricane Epsilon annular then?


It is currently by the nhc 80 knots, and the recon shown that it could have upwards of 85 knots with that 99 knot flight level wind. So it could be slightly stronger now.

I think that any one that writes a paper and what we see going on is "going on" then I believe it would take them to PHD level very fast.
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#3886 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Jul 12, 2008 2:30 am

Derek Ortt wrote:it has to be at least 85KT to be considered annular

so this doesn't fit. The debate over structure is a moot point

Whaaa?? I've never heard that criteria. Annular criteria are based on shape not size.

Bertha is not annular not because of its strength but because of its shape. It's clearly not symmetrically circular right now. Thus it's not annular.
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#3887 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Jul 12, 2008 2:35 am

The current "reverse-ERC", I believe, is due to the upwelling that is occurring right now. The outer eyewall never really formed well perhaps due to thermodynamic factors. Thus it never held a monopoly on moist inflow, and the inner eyewall held on. When shear, dry air, and SST factors come into play, a malformed outer eyewall is most likely to be affected first since it is the one grabbing most of the moist inflow (and it's more outside, having fewer rainbands to separate between it and the environment surrounding), and so now it's being weakened, allowing the inner eyewall and the thunderstorms within it to reintensify.

This is why I believe that ERC speed is proportional to the how favorable the environment surrounding is.
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#3888 Postby Chacor » Sat Jul 12, 2008 3:52 am

"INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL REMNANT
OF BERTHA IS FINALLY DISSIPATING"

Not sure what Dr Beven is seeing.
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#3889 Postby KWT » Sat Jul 12, 2008 3:52 am

Well thats such a strange hurricane, the EWRC just decided to go into reverse mode. Saying that the inner eyewlal never totally decayed and so it was always going to be possible that it would refire back into life even though I've never seen that happen before, its one to study I feel!
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#3890 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 12, 2008 3:53 am

Weather charts have resumed. (Thankfully power is back on after 8 1/2 hours)
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3891 Postby tolakram » Sat Jul 12, 2008 5:26 am

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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3892 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Jul 12, 2008 5:28 am

Say "hello" to a definite developing annular hurricane! It's not strictly annular at this time, but it's clearly transitioning to an annular TC, as I previously anticipated.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

It appears that the heralded stall has occurred SE of Bermuda as well. I do not see any defined movement per latest satellite data.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3893 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 12, 2008 5:44 am

HURAKAN,I like the ACE table that you have.What are the latest numbers?
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3894 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 12, 2008 5:56 am

First visible pic of the day:

Image
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3895 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:13 am

MiamiensisWx wrote:Say "hello" to a definite developing annular hurricane! It's not strictly annular at this time, but it's clearly transitioning to an annular TC, as I previously anticipated.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

It appears that the heralded stall has occurred SE of Bermuda as well. I do not see any defined movement per latest satellite data.


I think it's more like a weakening hurricane that lost its inner core. There's not much symmetry.
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#3896 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:19 am

I don't think it is transitioning into a annular hurricane either. Recon should dispel this "annular" idea once they get out there.
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Re: Hurricane Bertha in Western Atlantic

#3897 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 12, 2008 7:41 am

No change from ATCF,80 kts,976 mbs:

L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,
AL, 02, 2008071212, , BEST, 0, 297N, 626W, 80, 976, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1014, 200, 30, 0, 0,
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#3898 Postby Chacor » Sat Jul 12, 2008 8:03 am

Convection in the NW quad is weakening a lot.

Image
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#3899 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 12, 2008 8:10 am

Image
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#3900 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 12, 2008 8:28 am

Image

Bertha looks weaker than yesterday.
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