Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

[tailgater]

A pretty nice wave for S FLA at the end of that run also.

[boca]

it looks like our low recurves just east of the Bahamas just like this mornings past 06GFS run.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this becomes another Ivan, I will become a global warming believer for a week in eat dog food each night, while being so. This won't be!

This could be a weak system that will likely recurve like Bertha.[/quote]


I've read that the warming associated with the end of the Little Ice Age started before the rise of carbon dioxide associated with the onset of the 'Industrial Revolution', and while somewhat infrequent, hurricanes can happen in July, so don't eat Chinese manufactured dog food.[/quote]

I was not serious, but if this doe's form it will show that we could be in for a serious cape verde season.

[GeneratorPower]

Wow that recurve at the end of the run is cool. It sure did go over your head, cycloneye!

[GeneratorPower]

it looks like our low recurves just east of the Bahamas just like this mornings past 06GFS run.

It's showing a trough off the east coast that's responsible for the curves. That's interesting from a trends perspective. I wonder how that will eventually play out.

[GeneratorPower]

That is actually VERY close to an Okeechobee hurricane track (1928) through Puerto Rico... look below

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_Hurricane

[boca]

Keep your eyes peeled because in Bertha's early runs the models were predicting recurvature at 45w,it made it to 62w.So if that were the case this low would recurve into the EGOM.

[GeneratorPower]

This is a better picture of the Okeechobee track...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928 ... _track.png

[GeneratorPower]

Keep your eyes peeled because in Bertha's early runs the models were predicting recurvature at 45w,it made it to 62w.So if that were the case this low would recurve into the EGOM.

Hehehe. Well, that's some extrapolation for ya' isn't it?? I think the low-latitude nature of this one might naturally bring it more west. I just hope it doesn't hit every single island in the Antilles. That really wrecks a good hurricane and floods out an awful lot of people.

[boca]

it looks like our low recurves just east of the Bahamas just like this mornings past 06GFS run.

It's showing a trough off the east coast that's responsible for the curves. That's interesting from a trends perspective. I wonder how that will eventually play out.

Very true and if their is a trough along or off the east coast it depends on the timing of it lifting out or digging down. Lets just roll the dice.

[cycloneye]

That is actually VERY close to an Okeechobee hurricane track (1928) through Puerto Rico... look below

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_Hurricane

That was infamous San Felipe a cat 5 with 160 mph as it moved thru the island.Over 300 people died.

[boca]

Unfotunately I have to work all day tomorrow so I won't be able to see the runs until tomorrow night.

[GeneratorPower]

Unfotunately I have to work all day tomorrow so I won't be able to see the runs until tomorrow night.

Well, boo. At least you'll get to see what happens on the satellite views. That's more interesting than models, I think.

[KWT]

GFS still does do something this wave, indeed it tracks NW in the Caribbean and is a massive threat to the Caribbean IF this run was correct. However the ECM does nothing at all with this wave and only makes it a closed low for a breif spell before opening it back up. However it didn the same thing with Bertha as well...

[KWT]

There is nothing in the region where the models try and develop something, any convection that is on the wave axis is really weak and is certainly not going to become a TC in any great rush if at all. Wave over Africa still looks goood but thats normally the case at this time of year.

[cycloneye]

The only area that has plenty of convection is in the tropical wave axis around 48w.

[MiamiensisWx]

The surface low will develop over the next 24-36 hours near the center of the image, which is east of the wave axis near 45 W that was mentioned by Luis. The wave axis S of the Cape Verde islands will eventually enter this region.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=0,sa=9,pr=MPEF,f=1,c=MPE,se=4,n=6,d=1,v=400,pp=0

On a side note, the operational GFS, GFS ensembles, Euro, and other models also indicate possible cyclogenesis with the surface trough near the wave axis along 45 W as it moves into the Caribbean. The upper low near the Bahamas that is inducing shear over the Caribbean basin should weaken over the next several days, so this is another potential area for the islands and Caribbean residents to monitor.

[cycloneye]

The 06z GFS brushes the Leeward islands and then recurves just east of the Bahamas.Watch the loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Our members Gustywind and HUC in that island will open their eyes when they see this run.

Waouw, oh boy" it's a poster slam or poster dunk" as the ESPN commentators would said Cycloneye :eek: , i'm so amazed on this run, its very suspicious to see that most of the models are always showing something persistent for the next few days. I don't like honestly the path with this run in this beginning of summer holidays, hope that this is the last showung this trend, if this happens waouw it will be a nightmare, with all the residents with the spirit away in this period... generating maybe panika?! or will they be a little upset as i know them?!.
I was very busy Cycloneye it's why i could not answer, but tkanks for the info, i appreciate the way you're talking with us in Guadeloupe and the others but ( Huc and me especially in the Leewards).
It's always a pleasure to look at your pertinents replies my friend, everything is thought with professionalism and humility. For my part discovering this board is, i have to admit an incredible and wonderful experience. Que viva la combinicacion que espero "agradable y perfecta"entre vecinos caribenos y con todos !
Te felicito por tu apoyo Cycloneye!
Un saludo muy cordial con mucho respecto y humilidad.
Gustywind de Guadalupe.

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe is headed for a smack-down if the 00z GFS verifies.

Oh Yeah not the best smack but we will see if this trend continues showing something churning near Guadeloupe, whereas in this run Guadeloupe is fairly impacted from south to north, that's means Basse Terre first and the others areas more north of the island, not a good scenario .