Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

[Gustywind]

Oh boy,over my head!

Here is the loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Yeah you're in the famous Herbert Box... if we're hit in Guadeloupe you have 99% to be impacted Cycloneye, but we have time for that, just a" run", a nasty one

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 120938
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

BRIEF DRYING MAY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE MOISTURE
FROM WHAT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
SPREADS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. FA SHOULD RECEIVE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY. AT THIS TIME...DRIER WEATHER IS INDICATED
BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
I tkink it's the wave at 45 w...

[MiamiensisWx]

06Z operational GFS remains consistent, developing the surface low around 18-24 hours out from now near ~13 N and ~33 W:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_018l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_024l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z CMC = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ronjon]

I think the GFS runs of our future low are a little suspect now in that they rely upon a huge weakness in the ridge created by Bertha for the system to track north (recurve) in the western Atlantic. Maybe this will occur, but other models such as the Euro and CMC rebuild the ridge (much quicker south of Bertha) and move the low through the caribbean, and the UKMET moves it much slower which would also give time for the ridge to bounce back after Bertha. Much uncertainty still on this one but it does have consistent model support for development.

[ronjon]

I believe the models are latching on to the easternmost wave rather than the first one - which looks better organized to me - could we have two form?

[HURAKAN]

We are moving towards the time of the year that EVERYTHING must be watched.

[CourierPR]

Convection appears to be increasing between 45W and 50W.

[MiamiensisWx]

I already have one thread on the wave axis just S of the Cape Verde islands:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101771&start=60

However, this thread is discussing multiple "areas of interest", including this one. Can some confusion be eliminated?

[Blown Away]

I believe the models are latching on to the easternmost wave rather than the first one - which looks better organized to me - could we have two form?

Can you get the animated version of that view, then maybe we can see some rotation. Looks primed to go.

[MiamiensisWx]

I already have one thread on the wave axis just S of the Cape Verde islands:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101771&start=60

However, this thread is discussing multiple "areas of interest", including this one. Can some confusion be eliminated?

No one wants to offer help... sigh. The organization is haphazard.

Can someone merge my thread with this one or utilize this thread strictly for the model runs?

[Blown Away]

Yep, I see it to, I think that is the area the models are picking up. Bertha looks cool, she looks to be expanding her windfield, seems like a TS warning will likely be issued for Bermuda now.

I'm guilty MiamiensisWx, and I was originally the one to complain about some many threads about the same topic. I will conform.

[cycloneye]

I see some rotation around 35w and 8n:

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep, I see it to, I think that is the area the models are picking up. Bertha looks cool, she looks to be expanding her windfield, seems like a TS warning will likely be issued for Bermuda now.

I'm guilty MiamiensisWx, and I was originally the one to complain about some many threads about the same topic. I will conform.

The bolded portion is the obstruction I want to eliminate. I sent a few PMs to cycloneye, but I received no response or possible solution, so I decided to publicly ask for solutions here.

We need one main models/discussions thread for the wave axis S of the Cape Verde islands (possible development between 35-32 W). The plethora of threads (two separate ones) on the same area of interest is a conundrum.

[HURAKAN]

[NDG]

Yeah, I am confused where to post, too many for the same possible system.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm confused too. The wave at about 50º has more convection, but the wave at 35º has some rotation. And an impressive looking wave appears about a day from exiting Africa.


I hope we get a floater on 35ºW.

[cycloneye]

I decided that this model thread will merge with the miamiwx thread to then have one big thread to post models and to discuss about the area of interest.

[Blown Away]

I believe the models are latching on to the easternmost wave rather than the first one - which looks better organized to me - could we have two form?

Think we will get an invest this weekend out the area between 40-50W or the area just behind it?

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks, Luis!!!

This thread is specifically referring to the area along ~12-13 N between 35-32 W.