Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS CURVING NORTHWARD AT
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 15N IS
MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V PATTERN AS WELL AS BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING ARE CLEARLY OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SAT.
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS HAVE DISPLACED ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
WIND DATA FROM THE THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORT THE POSITION
OF THE AXIS.

_______________

This one must be watched as it approaches the Antilles.

[caribepr]

Does the inverted V pattern mean something as ominous as it sounds, having been repeated in the reports a number of times now (and looking more inverted all the time)? I'm sure it means something but I don't know what, please.

[MiamiensisWx]

Does the inverted V pattern mean something as ominous as it sounds, having been repeated in the reports a number of times now (and looking more inverted all the time)? I'm sure it means something but I don't know what, please.

An "inverted V" merely describes the structure of the tropical wave, the associated surface trough, and wind fields at the low levels in the immediate vicinity.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/training/tropicalwaves/sld003.htm

This is Riehl’s conceptual model and the plan/horizontal view of a tropical wave. Note the inverted “V” shape of the trough, with axis extending from south-to-north and propagating west on the low level easterlies.
Copied from: USAFETAC/TN-89/003, The Caribbean Basin, A Climatological Study, December 1989

The wind fields in the vicinity of a wave axis and the associated surface trough form an "inverted V" signature that transects the Atlantic as it moves west with the low level trades.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 111959
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
359 PM AST FRI JUL 11 2008

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 40 WEST LONGITUDE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP
TROPICS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGIN THIS WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION DURING THE
WEEKEND...TO BE INFORMED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS NEXT
WEEK.

[caribepr]

Thanks, Miami, that is more what I was hoping to read.

[GeneratorPower]

Nice convection flaring in and around the ITCZ tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10.5N. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN
46W AND 48W.
Always there, keep watching it...

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 120938
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2008

BRIEF DRYING MAY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE MOISTURE
FROM WHAT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
SPREADS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. FA SHOULD RECEIVE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY. AT THIS TIME...DRIER WEATHER IS INDICATED
BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

[deltadog03]

sounds like this guy could become an invest soon

[cycloneye]

Or a pair,this one at 45w and the one behind.

[Kerry04]

I think the GFS had show two waves developing on one of its runs

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Nice Itcz action ...very healthy today as yesterday... with maybe the wave at 45W embedded, let's see if the very confident GFS should bring the agressive twave towards the East carib Monday or Tuesday, but seems that something is cooking between 45 to 50w for untrained eyes Itcz is pulling nortward and convection is popping nicely we should keep watching it carefullt....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
Sal is pretty weak and should not inhibit strongly any system racing west near the east Carib...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Winds are quite favorable in vicinity of the 45w an only pockets at 20 to 30 kts from west are doting the area at 15 N 60w but on a decreasing trend ant that's maybe a window of opportunity for the wave at 45w
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Shear is decreasing fairly ...time will tell if the GFS is correct or not concerning this area....

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121758
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.




TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 44W.
No more changes but always there in good shape....

[Sanibel]

That last African wave didn't have the same spin as Bertha. Lack of convection was the main sign.

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneHunter914]

Here comes another monster that's bound to diminish as soon as it hit's the water.

[wxman57]

The place to watch is 30W-35W. I think we'll see a low spin up from that wave over the next few days. The wave approaching 50W is running into very strong low-level flow, not conducive for development.

[Patrick99]

Nothing seems to be too terribly organized out there, but still, that area has a suspicious look right now that I can't quite explain.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 181038
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
638 AM AST FRI JUL 18 2008

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THAT DAY. AS
THIS WAVE CLEARS THE REGION ON MONDAY...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
DIURNAL PATTERN.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN THE EXITING WAVE AND THE NEXT WAVE (AND ASSOCIATED TUTT LOW) APPROACHINGTHE AREA FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.