ATL: Dolly Model Runs
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ATL: Dolly Model Runs
570
WHXX01 KWBC 130645
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0645 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080713 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080713 0600 080713 1800 080714 0600 080714 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.8N 36.4W 9.4N 37.8W 9.8N 38.8W 10.2N 40.3W
BAMD 8.8N 36.4W 9.3N 38.0W 9.9N 39.4W 10.6N 40.8W
BAMM 8.8N 36.4W 9.3N 37.9W 9.9N 39.2W 10.6N 40.7W
LBAR 8.8N 36.4W 9.1N 38.0W 9.6N 39.6W 10.2N 41.8W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080715 0600 080716 0600 080717 0600 080718 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.6N 42.7W 11.4N 49.2W 11.8N 56.3W 11.8N 63.4W
BAMD 11.1N 42.6W 12.2N 47.3W 12.9N 52.2W 13.5N 56.8W
BAMM 10.8N 42.7W 11.4N 48.2W 11.4N 53.9W 10.9N 59.3W
LBAR 10.7N 43.9W 12.2N 49.3W 13.2N 55.2W 14.3N 60.7W
SHIP 41KTS 53KTS 61KTS 66KTS
DSHP 41KTS 53KTS 61KTS 66KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.8N LONCUR = 36.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 35.6W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 34.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
0 likes
- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: Invest 94L Models
SHEAR TO REMAIN LOW:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942008 07/13/08 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 28 35 41 47 53 56 61 64 66
V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 28 35 41 47 53 56 61 64 66
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 33 38 44 49
SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 15 14 10 5 13 9 7 10 9 12 10
SHEAR DIR 83 76 92 129 139 167 180 196 153 162 150 174 197
SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 128 125 123 121 122 124 127 128 130 131 134
ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 125 122 120 118 121 125 128 129 132 133 135
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.0 -55.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -55.0 -54.5 -54.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8
700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 77 79 71 71 65 67 63 64 58 64
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 7 17 30 43 51 50 61 69 73 86 85
200 MB DIV 53 37 41 80 118 96 66 58 82 74 70 85 42
LAND (KM) 1360 1365 1375 1398 1415 1363 1200 1034 857 728 630 455 185
LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.4 11.2 10.9
LONG(DEG W) 36.4 37.2 37.9 38.6 39.2 40.7 42.7 45.3 48.2 51.1 53.9 56.6 59.3
STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 7 8 9 11 14 14 14 14 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 24 24 19 18 15 9 14 18 29 29 38 42 51
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 20. 27. 34. 39. 43. 47. 48.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 21. 27. 33. 36. 41. 44. 46.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/13/08 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/13/08 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139720
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 131229
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080713 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080713 1200 080714 0000 080714 1200 080715 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 37.2W 9.3N 38.5W 9.4N 39.8W 9.6N 41.7W
BAMD 8.9N 37.2W 9.3N 39.0W 9.8N 40.7W 10.1N 42.5W
BAMM 8.9N 37.2W 9.4N 38.9W 9.9N 40.4W 10.0N 42.2W
LBAR 8.9N 37.2W 9.4N 38.8W 9.9N 40.8W 10.3N 42.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080715 1200 080716 1200 080717 1200 080718 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 44.2W 9.6N 49.8W 8.5N 55.6W 7.6N 60.9W
BAMD 10.4N 44.9W 10.6N 50.3W 10.2N 56.2W 10.3N 62.3W
BAMM 10.0N 44.6W 9.8N 50.1W 8.8N 55.7W 8.0N 61.5W
LBAR 10.7N 45.4W 12.0N 51.2W 12.7N 57.3W 11.5N 62.5W
SHIP 58KTS 73KTS 82KTS 80KTS
DSHP 58KTS 73KTS 82KTS 53KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 37.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080713 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080713 1200 080714 0000 080714 1200 080715 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 37.2W 9.3N 38.5W 9.4N 39.8W 9.6N 41.7W
BAMD 8.9N 37.2W 9.3N 39.0W 9.8N 40.7W 10.1N 42.5W
BAMM 8.9N 37.2W 9.4N 38.9W 9.9N 40.4W 10.0N 42.2W
LBAR 8.9N 37.2W 9.4N 38.8W 9.9N 40.8W 10.3N 42.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080715 1200 080716 1200 080717 1200 080718 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 44.2W 9.6N 49.8W 8.5N 55.6W 7.6N 60.9W
BAMD 10.4N 44.9W 10.6N 50.3W 10.2N 56.2W 10.3N 62.3W
BAMM 10.0N 44.6W 9.8N 50.1W 8.8N 55.7W 8.0N 61.5W
LBAR 10.7N 45.4W 12.0N 51.2W 12.7N 57.3W 11.5N 62.5W
SHIP 58KTS 73KTS 82KTS 80KTS
DSHP 58KTS 73KTS 82KTS 53KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 37.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
0 likes
- Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5596
- Age: 36
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
This would not be a CV storm, it's a fair distance west of the CV islands and by the time it develops into a TD probably it can't be considered a CV system.
Last edited by Chacor on Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:44 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139720
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
12:00 SHIP forecast.Shear not a big problem and 41% of RI.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942008 07/13/08 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 48 58 66 73 78 82 82 80
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 48 58 66 73 78 82 82 53
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 43 50 59 67 73 51
SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 11 9 9 9 7 2 8 6 9 16 13
SHEAR DIR 70 88 119 109 96 114 109 111 47 58 92 133 109
SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 126 123 122 123 127 132 135 138 140 141 137
ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 124 120 119 122 128 134 139 143 146 148 144
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 -54.4 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 9 8
700-500 MB RH 76 73 78 79 75 71 72 68 69 64 67 67 69
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 8 9 10 9 11 12 13 14 16 16 15
850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 8 23 36 35 40 53 60 73 71 35 28
200 MB DIV 34 47 83 114 106 86 52 52 62 74 42 41 0
LAND (KM) 1347 1356 1372 1368 1351 1190 986 801 595 428 322 71 -70
LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.4 8.8 8.3 8.0
LONG(DEG W) 37.2 38.1 38.9 39.7 40.4 42.2 44.6 47.2 50.1 52.9 55.7 58.5 61.5
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 10 12 14 14 14 14 14 15
HEAT CONTENT 24 20 19 14 11 17 23 36 36 34 43 4 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 22. 32. 41. 49. 56. 60. 59. 57.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 33. 41. 48. 53. 57. 57. 55.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/13/08 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/13/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
0 likes
- ftolmsteen
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 121
- Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2007 6:34 am
- Location: Port Richey, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
Reminds me a little of Charley's first developmental stages location-wise. Pretty far south. We'll see what this little turning does.
0 likes
- kpost
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 101
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2008 10:52 am
- Location: Indialantic, Florida (Ohio 4now)
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
this is based on 65 miles from the 120 hrs forecast point. July storms only.
Last edited by kpost on Sun Jul 13, 2008 9:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9788
- Age: 62
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:many other meteorologists had this storm developing as well
JB did NOTHING special
Gotta agree with Derek here. While I'm a JB fan (and Accuwx pro site subscriber), JB has been hit or miss so far this tropical season. I'm still waiting for last week's "western Gulf mischief" which really never amounted to much in terms of an organized system. Just an upper-level low that sheared out over time.
We'll see how JB does on this one as he has been honking about the current MJO pulse and how this may mean an East Coast hit.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
kpost wrote:this is based on 65 miles from the 120 hrs forecast point. July storms only.
http://csc-s-maps-p.csc.noaa.gov/output/hurricanes_CSC-S-IMS-SS-P116432055.jpg
link isn't working for me....is it for anyone else?
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139720
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
0 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9876
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
The SHIP has an 80kt hurricane in 5 days and the models are driving it into SA, those two don't add up.
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
Blown_away wrote:The SHIP has an 80kt hurricane in 5 days and the models are driving it into SA, those two don't add up.
The BAMS are driving into SA but they are more than likely wrong here. Once some of the globals start being run in this system I would expect a WNW movement.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139720
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
Once again in the 2008 season the GFS model was on the ball.This time for a week,it has showed this.It nailed Arthur 2 weeks before and Bertha almost the same timeframe.So I can say that the GFS model is the king model this year so far.
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
cycloneye wrote:Once again in the 2008 season the GFS model was on the ball.This time for a week,it has showed this.It nailed Arthur 2 weeks before and Bertha almost the same timeframe.So I can say that the GFS model is the king model this yearso far.
The GFS has it going just NE of the Leeward islands into the infamous Herbert Box with a solid ridge shown in the Western Atlantic. Let's see how accurate it is
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests