CrazyC83 wrote:This doesn't look very good right now.
I dont know....looks pretty good to me. The convection is not concentrated, but I do see some turning and sporadic deep convection...this thing should be on its way.
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CrazyC83 wrote:This doesn't look very good right now.
gatorcane wrote:HouTXmetro wrote:canegrl04 wrote:Intial forecast landfalls are usually highly inaccurate. If it become Cristobol,its more likely to make landfall anywhere from the tip of Texas to the East coast
I understand, I just want to get a general idea of how many days away is it from CONUS.
I don't think there is any need to speculate about the CONUS as the CONUS is way upstream at this point and we don't even have a depression yet. In addition the immediate need is to watch the islands of the Caribbean if it even develops.
gatorcane wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think this has by far a better chance of developing.
1# Lots of convection
2# Low shear
The ship model forecast strengthing to a point where you can be some what safe to assume it may have a chance of developing. It will likley be a low rider.
People you know those ship of the LINE ships of old. Remember how when the doors opened up on the sides and the cannons started to come out. I clearly see those cannons coming out right now. Maybe not as intense of 2004, but 1998,99 or 96 is looking possible.
Maybe it would be a good idea to buy homes that can be moved from the coast to inland?
If this thing ends up getting going with this system, I do wonder if we are looking at another 2005-like season as far as #systems. To have this much activity in July is pretty unusual especially where systems are forming (in the MDR region of the Atlantic basin).
Typically the area where Bertha developed and 94L are not favorable areas of development until later in August.
gatorcane wrote:
I don't think there is any need to speculate about the CONUS as the CONUS is way upstream at this point and we don't even have a depression yet. In addition the immediate need is to watch the islands of the Caribbean if it even develops.
Category 5 wrote:gatorcane wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think this has by far a better chance of developing.
1# Lots of convection
2# Low shear
The ship model forecast strengthing to a point where you can be some what safe to assume it may have a chance of developing. It will likley be a low rider.
People you know those ship of the LINE ships of old. Remember how when the doors opened up on the sides and the cannons started to come out. I clearly see those cannons coming out right now. Maybe not as intense of 2004, but 1998,99 or 96 is looking possible.
Maybe it would be a good idea to buy homes that can be moved from the coast to inland?
If this thing ends up getting going with this system, I do wonder if we are looking at another 2005-like season as far as #systems. To have this much activity in July is pretty unusual especially where systems are forming (in the MDR region of the Atlantic basin).
Typically the area where Bertha developed and 94L are not favorable areas of development until later in August.
2005 was ludicrous, I'd put 0 thought into that.
gatorcane wrote:HouTXmetro wrote:canegrl04 wrote:Intial forecast landfalls are usually highly inaccurate. If it become Cristobol,its more likely to make landfall anywhere from the tip of Texas to the East coast
I understand, I just want to get a general idea of how many days away is it from CONUS.
I don't think there is any need to speculate about the CONUS as the CONUS is way upstream at this point and we don't even have a depression yet. In addition the immediate need is to watch the islands of the Caribbean if it even develops.
CrazyC83 wrote:[
At this point in 2005, we had 5 storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
Category 5 wrote:Absolutely. IF it develops it's too far off to know, and we should tend to our friends in the Caribbean who would likely be first in line.
Stratosphere747 wrote:gatorcane wrote:
I don't think there is any need to speculate about the CONUS as the CONUS is way upstream at this point and we don't even have a depression yet. In addition the immediate need is to watch the islands of the Caribbean if it even develops.
Then why mention the 'Hebert Box' in the models thread?
Category 5 wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:[
At this point in 2005, we had 5 storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
Yeah. We're at 2/1/1 now and if this develops I'd consider this to be a very fast start, and we'd be ON PACE (nothings for sure) for a very active season.
2005 shouldn't be mentioned in climatology or comparisons . It's just in a class of its own.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: This forecast is just the opinion of the poster.
cheezyWXguy wrote:Stratosphere747 wrote:gatorcane wrote:
I don't think there is any need to speculate about the CONUS as the CONUS is way upstream at this point and we don't even have a depression yet. In addition the immediate need is to watch the islands of the Caribbean if it even develops.
Then why mention the 'Hebert Box' in the models thread?
because, he was talking about the GFS, which brought a developed tropical cyclone into the Hebert box.
Blown_away wrote:If 94L develops within the next 36 hours I would think it would move WNW, I think Bertha will leave weakness in the ridge to allow this WNW movement towards the NE Caribbean, from there Bertha may move out and the ridge builds back in and moves 94L towards the CONUS or Bertha may create enough weakness to recurve 94L. If 94L does not develop and remains a shallow system then I would think a more southern track through the Caribbean would be likely. If 94L becomes Cristobal in the next 36 hours I think it will be difficult to miss a landfall at least in the Islands.Personal Forecast Disclaimer: This forecast is just the opinion of the poster.
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