ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Well that really is the key Gatorcane does it develop, I see no reason why it can't given shear doesn't seem to be all that problematic as of now, SST's aren't a problem and there isn't much in the way of really dry air around it that should keep it from steadily developing.

Yep its early to have to watch, sadly when you see a storm form near 25W this early in the season like Bertha does make you wonder doesn't it, I believe that the average for a season which has a cape verde storm in July is something like 5 majors from what I remember on another debate on another forum.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would put the center at 9.5/37.5. Overall the "LLC" is west to east, but I can see inflow trying to be pulled south to north near 36-37 west...In then hooking east around the north side. Nice convection, but we need to watch that eastly shear closely.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is a look at a few historical storms to have moved through (or very near) the NE islands in a similar fashion to what the models now show 94L doing:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:David_1979_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bert ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Donna_1960_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Geor ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hugo_1989_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mari ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Jean ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1926 ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928 ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1947 ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Faith_1966_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Inez_1966_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gilb ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Luis_1995_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bonn ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Dean_2007_track.png

Now who knows whether or not 94L will decide to repeat history with any of these tracks or strengths, but it is still interesting to look at anyway and remember that beyond the islands, almost anybody could potentially be at risk.

[gatorcane]

Well that really is the key Gatorcane does it develop, I see no reason why it can't given shear doesn't seem to be all that problematic as of now, SST's aren't a problem and there isn't much in the way of really dry air around it that should keep it from steadily developing.

Indeed we'll have something to watch for the next several days if not more.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is a look at a few historical storms to have moved through (or very near) the NE islands in a similar fashion to what the models now show 94L doing:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:David_1979_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bert ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Donna_1960_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Geor ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hugo_1989_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mari ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Jean ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1926 ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928 ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1947 ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Faith_1966_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Inez_1966_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gilb ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Luis_1995_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bonn ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Dean_2007_track.png

Now who knows whether or not 94L will decide to repeat history with any of these tracks or strengths, but it is still interesting to look at anyway and remember that beyond the islands, almost anybody could potentially be at risk.

Way to early to think about repeating history with this. Wait another 36 hours.

[bvigal]

Hey just helping this thread to get as many pages a possible....
blah, blah.....

Is that the purpose, or even secondary goal, to 'get as many pages as possible'? <<<slaps own forhead in dizzying deja vu of times past>>>

[canegrl04]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is a look at a few historical storms to have moved through (or very near) the NE islands in a similar fashion to what the models now show 94L doing:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:David_1979_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bert ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Donna_1960_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Geor ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hugo_1989_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mari ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Jean ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1926 ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928 ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1947 ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Faith_1966_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Inez_1966_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gilb ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Luis_1995_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bonn ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Dean_2007_track.png

Now who knows whether or not 94L will decide to repeat history with any of these tracks or strengths, but it is still interesting to look at anyway and remember that beyond the islands, almost anybody could potentially be at risk.

Ah yes,the infamous DONNA of 1960.A year before I was born but I've heard alot about it

[Aric Dunn]

within in 60 miles of the estimated location ... here are all the track ever near there..

[CourierPR]

Nothing wrong with Accuweather thinking, though I think the center will form further north around 10N, thats where I've been thinking something would form for the last few days.

Yes, I think we may see this form a little farther north.

[KWT]

The thing is gatorcane given this is still very far east compared to many other July systems unless it gets torn apart by mountions or shear this disturbance could be with us for a good 10 days so we have a while to watch this.

Matt, yeah I think the agencies for now are placing the center around there though I wouldn't be surprised if a new center tries to get going near the deep convection if it sticks around, if that region decays over the next 12hrs then the southerly circulation looks the most likely to form.

I see your missing Emily 2005, formed fairly close to this system.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT OFFICIAL****
Based on the heat content, favorable convergence/divergence/moisture/lack of shear and steering patterns, the Caribbean Islands
may see strong tropical storm/category 1 hurricane
conditions in 4-5 days. Folks along
those islands need to watch this system VERY closely.
After 5 days, I have no idea where it will go. There are so
many factors.

[wxman57]

Wxman it would be interesting to show members historical tracks around the area where 94L may develop. I think not as many tend to "recurve" in this part of the Atlantic.

I don't have to do a search to determine that most systems forming down there don't recurve very early. But if the search was narrowed to only include situations with a TS near Bermuda and a large weakness in the ridge past 55W then I think the number of those recurving would be a lot higher.

[Aric Dunn]

The thing is gatorcane given this is still very far east compared to many other July systems unless it gets torn apart by mountions or shear this disturbance could be with us for a good 10 days so we have a while to watch this.

Matt, yeah I think the agencies for now are placing the center around there though I wouldn't be surprised if a new center tries to get going near the deep convection if it sticks around, if that region decays over the next 12hrs then the southerly circulation looks the most likely to form.

I see your missing Emily 2005, formed fairly close to this system.

emily formed at 43 west..

[cycloneye]

within in 60 miles of the estimated location ... here are all the track ever near there..

Image doesnt work.

[Aric Dunn]

within in 60 miles of the estimated location ... here are all the track ever near there..

Image doesnt work.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://csc-s-maps-p.csc.noaa.gov/output/hurricanes_CSC-S-IMS-SS-P32242536450.jpg

Utilize an image hosting firm such as Imageshack, Photobucket, etc.

[RL3AO]

FWIW, I see the image fine.

[Aric Dunn]

http://csc-s-maps-p.csc.noaa.gov/output/hurricanes_CSC-S-IMS-SS-P32242536450.jpg

Utilize an image hosting firm such as Imageshack, Photobucket, etc.

its there now right
i can see it

[MiamiensisWx]

Upper low near the Bahamas is drifting north as it encounters the weakness left by an upper level trough as a shortwave approaches from the Southeastern United States. This should reduce the upper level shear over the central Caribbean Sea.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[KWT]

Yep Aric Emily formed at 43W which if this does do something soon probably won't be all that far away from where this system develops into something IMO.
Miami, yep the reduction of shear just at this time in the Caribbean really isn't a good thing!